NFL Week Four Picks

Welcome to the third week of predictions for which I pick both a winner and the margin of victory. I count them separately, so if I picked Cincinnati over Pittsburgh by 10, and Cincinnati won by eight, I'm 1-0 picking the winner, 0-1 picking the score. Simple enough, right?

Before we get into the picks, I was watching Laguna Beach yesterday after reading Bill Simmons little rant about the sheer lack of personality of the male characters in the show. I mean, it's a new season, so it's funny to see the new characters, especially guys like Cameron -- a Jason impersonator -- try to act (yeah, I said act. So what, big deal, wanna fight about it?).

But I just wanted to mention the gradual increase in ridiculously hot female cast members since season one. The first season we had LC and Kristin. They battled for hot-girl supremacy. Then in season two, Kristin held the top spot easily, but Jessica, Alex H., Alex M. and even Taylor made some noise. And now in the third season, there's Tessa, Kyndra, Lexie and Breanna, with scores of other girls making cameos.

Sure, most of those girls pale in comparison to one or two of the ridiculously hot girls in the show. But think about it, if these girls went to your high school, they would easily be the hottest girl. I don't know about you, but that bothers me. I can't quite figure out why, but it does. Kind of like Regis Philbin -- no one really likes him, but we can't figure out why. Is it the annoying voice? The overexuberant chatter? Who knows. But he just isn't an enjoyable figure.

But more to the point, do they even go to school? Someone should look into this. Has anyone ever seen them doing homework or essays? Or even complaining about school work or getting into college? I want to know. And I want to know now. Someone call the creepy dude who always looks mad on Law and Order: Criminal Intent (I think his name is Vincent D'Onorfio -- don't count on it though).

Also, I highly recommend you go on Wikipedia and read the "Controversy" section at the end of the article. It has inside information on the reality of the show. Apparently Jason smashed Alex's head into a locker at school and that's why they broke up. How hilarious is that? I knew the kid was terrible, but not that bad. So check it out. Right after you research Mario Lopez and Jaleel White.

Anyway, I have NFL picks to make. This week just isn't quite there in terms of contests like last week, but we'll go with it.

Arizona at ATLANTA --The Falcons ran into the gauntlet Monday and had no chance of escaping. No way were the Saints going to lose their first game back at the Superdome. But the Falcons are still good, and with the controversy stewing already in Arizona, the cards are stacked against Kurt Warner and company (pun intended). Falcons by seven.

DALLAS at Tennessee -- In spite of all the T.O. business going on this week, something about which I don't think I should opine, the Cowboys will be ready to play after the bye week. Give Bill Parcells two weeks against a lowly team like the Titans, who are suffering the same problems as the Cardinals with a far less talented team, and the Cowboys are easy favorites. Dallas by 10.

INDIANAPOLIS at New York Jets -- This could be an interesting contest if the Jets play well. They've looked pretty decent so far. But the Colts are too good for me to pick against them. It'll either be a close one or a brutal beatdown, but I say Colts pull away in the end by eight.

MIAMI at Houston -- You won't see me picking this many road teams unless the host clubs are terrible. And this week, they are. Miami isn't better than Houston by more than a running back, but the fact that every analyst second-guesses any move made in Houston makes me question the confidence in the locker room. Dolphins by three.

MINNESOTA at Buffalo -- The Vikes should've won last week. The Bills should've won last week. The difference? The Vikings played the Bears; the Bills played the Jets. The Bears are a Super Bowl contender; the Jets are a snow ball's prayer of a wild card contender. Minnesota recharged its batteries when Brad Johnson took over last season and boating is now illegal in Minneapolis. Vikings by three.

New Orleans at CAROLINA -- The dream start to the Saints' season will end this weekend. Not that I'm ready to hop back on the Panthers bandwagon after they squeaked out a win over Tampa Bay, but just because the Saints will be in serious letdown mode after their inspirational performance Monday night. Carolina by seven.

SAN DIEGO at Baltimore -- This will be the first test of the season for both of these clubs. San Diego beat up on Oakland and Tennessee; Baltimore crushed Tampa Bay, Oakland and Cleveland. Call me crazy, but I like the Chargers on the road. It should be close, with a good offense meeting a good defense, so I'll say San Diego by two. Why? Because offense wins games (I know, I know, "But defense wins championships.").

San Francisco at KANSAS CITY -- The Chiefs have had two long weeks to lick their wounds after an 0-2 start under new coach Herm Edwards. If Brian Westbrook torched San Fran on the ground, then Larry Johnson will literally restart the gold rush against the 49ers. Even without Trent Green, the Chiefs should be the favorites. KC by six.

Detroit at ST. LOUIS -- The Rams are a tough team. Detroit can't buy a win. Rule #368 in picking winners of NFL games: Never pick a team that loses -- at home -- to the Packers. Rams by seven.

CLEVELAND at Oakland -- The Raiders are terrible. And so are the Browns. Cleveland by 10.

JACKSONVILLE at Washington -- The Jags will be hungry after their tough loss last weekend. There is no chance that Mark Brunell will repeat his performance from last week. Jacksonville by seven.

New England at CINCINNATI -- Both of these teams have yet to look good. But Cincy is more likely to get things going. Tom Brady is quietly furious and the Pats' offense couldn't look worse. Keep an eye out for Carson Palmer -- can he hold on to the football and keep his composure in the pocket? He played rather poorly against Pittsburgh last week and still won, but the Pats are a tougher opponent that will make Cincy pay for its mistakes. And yet, I still like the Bengals by six.

Seattle at CHICAGO -- What a fantastic match up. But on Sunday night, the Seahawks will be running that spread, four-receiver offense without much of a running game. Give the Bears only one thing to defend against and your offense is more doomed than trout swimming in a barrel in a grizzly's lair (what, bad joke?). Bears by four.

Green Bay at PHILADELPHIA -- In the worst Monday Night Football contest so far, the Eagles will feast on the Pack. D-Mac looks great so far and Donte' "Why the Apostrophe?" Stallworth is back this week. The Packers can't beat anyone on the road except for the Lions. Eagles by 13.

OK, so at this point, I'm 22-8 picking the winners of games and 14-16 picking the right margin of victory.

As always, tune in on Monday morning at 9 for the Water Cooler Conversation with Matt Bolks, Ken Lynch and me. Catch it streaming at www.wpts.org/live. And also keep an eye out for The Pitt News sports section, it always has good stuff from a great staff. Take 'er easy.

NFL Week Three Picks

I had a great first pick week after Week Two: 13-3 picking winners and losers, 11-5 covering my own spreads. Anyway, as usual, there's a plethora of exciting games this weekend. Let's git dahn to it (that's my typed Pittsburgh accent).

Tennessee at MIAMI -- I will keep picking Miami, and they will keep disappointing me. Basically for this game, it came down to which team was more likely to beat themselves. Dolphins by a touchdown (if they can score one).

Jacksonville at INDIANAPOLIS -- The game of the week in my opinion, although there's another one in Pittsburgh at the same time. Jacksonville's defense might be one of the few in the league capable of slowing down Peyton Manning. And they'll do that in Jacksonville. But the Colts are at home and home is where the heart is. Colts by three.

WASHINGTON at Houston -- Wow. Two of the first three games are awful. I feel weird, especially after saying how great the week was going to be. Anyway, I will pick against Houston every game and let them beat me once or twice. Same with Oakland. I can't wait to see how bad Mark Brunell is this week, but it won't be bad enough to lose to the lowly Texans. 'Skins by seven.

Green Bay at DETROIT -- Finally, an easy win for the Lions. Wait, what? Roy Williams, anyone? This continues the trend of terrible games at a 75% clip. Another team I'll pick against all year? The Packers. Detroit by six.

New York Jets at BUFFALO -- The Bills look like the surprise team in the AFC East -- surprise in a good way. At home against the Jets should be a game the Bills can win. Buffalo by three.

CAROLINA at Tampa Bay -- The Bucs just don't have it together. And with a gun pointed to my head, I'm calling the Panthers by four.

CINCINNATI at Pittsburgh -- The Bengals, along with the Chargers. are my favorites to make the AFC Title game. The Steelers aren't going to make the playoffs. The Bengals begin their quest to drive Pittsburgh into a summer-long depression with a 10-point win.

CHICAGO at Minnesota -- I keep picking teams on the road, but Chicago looks like a top tier team in the NFL. Defensively, they make plays. Offensively, they don't mess anything up. The Vikes are good, but da Bears are better. Chitown by seven.

BALTIMORE at Cleveland -- It doesn't get any easier for the Browns. Their first three games are against opponents with a combined 6-0 record. How fun. Baltimore will either win the AFC North or get a wild card bid to the playoffs. This game will be in their win column, Ravens by 10.

NEW YORK GIANTS at Seattle -- Remember last year's game? It won't happen this year, but it was quite the finish. This is where the we-lost-the-Super-Bowl-and-we-are-going-to-disappoint slump kicks in. Giants by six.

PHILADELPHIA at San Francisco -- I'm sorry, but the 49ers beating the Rams at home isn't going to convince me that they are a surprise team. Give me 10 weeks and a 7-5 record and maybe we'll talk. Iggles by seven.

St. Louis at ARIZONA -- The Cardinals will tough to compete with at home, and this game is going to be a great shootout. I like the Cardinals' receivers better, but I hope there are 65-70 points scored in this game. 'Zona by seven.

Denver at NEW ENGLAND -- Revenge. Denver stumbles into New England with 19 points scored in two games. Jake Plummer is already on the hot seat in Denver. The Pats haven't looked great so far, in fact, they've looked flat and relatively unorganized. But at home, against a lesser opponent, with a week with new receivers under his belt, Tom Brady will have his game together. Pats by 10.

Atlanta at NEW ORLEANS -- I think the Falcons are better than people thought they'd be, but on this emotional night, at this emotional stadium, with this emotional crowd, no way am I picking against the Saints. New Orleans 3-0?! REGGIE! REGGIE! REGGIE! Saints by three.

There you have it. I hope to continue my pick 'em streak.

Overall: 13-3 Against my spread: 11-5

NFL Week Two picks

After a long vacation from the blog, I've decided to try doing quick blurbs about each NFL game over the upcoming weekend and pick the winner. Let's have a go, shall we?

Buffalo at MIAMI -- The Bills put up a surprising performance against the Pats last weekend, nearly snatching a victory from the highly-touted Pats in Foxboro. But this weekend the Dolphins will be on a mission and I think last weekend was a fluke for Buffalo. They are still one of the five worst teams in the NFL. Dolphins by a touchdown.

Carolina at MINNESOTA -- I think the Panthers were cursed by the "This team is definitely going to the Super Bowl" chatter before the season even kicked off. The Vikings looked good AT Washington on Monday night, and I think they'll be just as good at home. Call it Vikings by three.

Cleveland at CINCINNATI -- Even though I liked Charlie Frye's performance for the Browns last weekend, everything else looked awful. The Bengals dominated Kansas City despite a mediocre performance statistic-wise by Carson Palmer. Cincinnati wins by two touchdowns.

Detroit at CHICAGO -- Did ya see Chicago's defense last week? Sure, it was against Brett "I still think I'm a gunslinger even though I should've retired in 2004" Favre, but the Bears suffocated them. Detroit struggled a bit on the offensive side of the ball, so they'll need to improve if they think they can even touch the Bears. They can't. Bears by 10.

Houston at INDIANAPOLIS -- Has there ever been a more unappealing game than this one? Houston is terrible and already regretting their drafting Mario Williams (who?) over Reggie Bush (Reggie! Reggie! Reggie!). The Colts will steamroll for points and win easily. Let's say Colts by 14.

NEW ORLEANS at Green Bay -- The Saints looked OK at Cleveland. Now put them at Lambeau against the worst QB in the NFL, and what do we have? Another Saints victory. 2-0! Reggie! Reggie! Reggie! OK, OK, Saints by a couple of field goals.

New York Giants at PHILLY -- I'm taking Philly at home. The Giants are good and they will win between 10-12 games, but playing in Philly is never easy -- especially when the Eagles are riding high. The Giants will beat Philly at Giants Stadium, but Philly beats the Giants at Lincoln Financial by three.

Oakland at BALTIMORE -- I am going to pick against Oakland every week and take the one or two wrong picks. Any team with Aaron Brooks as their quarterback is in trouble, but did you see them on Monday night? Worst team ever. And I mean ever. Meanwhile Baltimore was busy Sunday killing the Bucs at Tampa Bay. Call me crazy, but I think the Ravens will be even better at home. Baltimore by 24.

Tampa Bay at ATLANTA -- Did you see the Falcons' running game last week against the Panthers? It was dominant to say the least. I think the Bucs are in troublee and this week will prove so. Atlanta wins by a touchdown.

Arizona at SEATTLE -- I don't get why everyone thinks Arizona is some big sleeper team that will shock everyone and make the playoffs. Kurt Warner is not the second coming of Christ. And everytime a team is touted as a sleeper pick by everyone and their kid brother, they turn out disappointing. I'm taking Seattle at home (even with Deion Branch in jeans) by a touchdown.

ST. LOUIS at San Francisco -- The Rams looked good last week despite only scoring field goals. How crazy is that? The 49ers are in for another tough year. Call it a 10-point win for the Rams.

Kansas City at DENVER -- Let's see: You lose your franchise quarterback in the first week thanks to a blistering hit, then spend the whole week wondering how the hell you are going to win. Add your most bitter rival. Mix in some road trip. And what do you get? Denver wins by 10.

NEW ENGLAND at the New York Jets -- The Jets pumped out a decent performance last week before almost blowing the game. The Pats barely beat the Bills. But I fully expect the Pats to recover and win on the road against the weak Jets running game. Chad Pennington can't beat Belichick if Peyton Manning can't. Pats by three.

Tennessee at SAN DIEGO -- Duh. The Chargers might be my sleeper pick for Super Bowl Champs. We'll see. In the meantime, LT will run all over the Titans. Vince Young and Kerry Collins aren't going to win many games this early in the season. Chargers by two touchdowns.

Washington at DALLAS -- As much as I want to take the Redskins in this game, I gotta go with the home team. I hate picking anything that involves my trusting of Drew Bledsoe or T.O., but at home I think they can take care of business. Let's see how the Redskins bounce back after a tough loss Monday night. 'Boys by three.

Pittsburgh at JACKSONVILLE -- Remember when these guys played two years ago? It was incredible. It was physical, smash-mouth, take-no-prisoners football. But the Jaguars are good, and they're at home. Jags by three.

That's it for this week. If you get a chance, check out www.pittsburghpanthers.com and look over Pitt basketball's schedule, you will shout for joy. Also, check out www.pittnews.com for great sports coverage of Pitt sports. Take 'er easy.