NFL Week Six Picks

Well, I'm having a nearly flawless season picking winners and losers, shining a record of 44-14. The biggest problem with that is my 30-28 record predicting the margin of victory. But who's counting?

To the picks!

BUFFALO at Detroit -- Never bet on the Lions. I don't know if this is the game they can win to break the winless start, but it has the makings of it. Still, picking Jon Kitna and the Lions just seems too silly. Bills by three.

Carolina at BALTIMORE -- Now I'm not on, and never was on, the Ravens bandwagon. But I do think they are a tough team to beat at home against their defense. Jamal Lewis and Steve McNair finally showed their true colors on national television, and the Undefeated Team Nobody Saw Play crumbled. That said, the Panthers haven't looked great on the road yet. Ravens by three.

CINCINNATI at Tampa Bay -- I like the Bucs but the Bengals are coming off a bye week. They've had two weeks to let their 38-13 loss to the Pats sink in, and now they have a team they can crush in their crosshairs. Bruce Gradkowksi will have to wait one more week. Bengals by seven.

Houston at DALLAS -- Enough about T.O. Drew Bledsoe is very mediocre, if that's possible. The Texans aren't going to win on the road. 'Boys at home by seven.

New York Giants at ATLANTA -- This is a game that could go either way. The Giants have played like two different teams in their two wins and two losses. The Falcons have had a week to prepare for the Giants and it will be loud in Hotlanta. 'Birds by seven.

Philadelphia at NEW ORLEANS -- The Saints have the Eagles at home. The Eagles are coming off a huge emotional victory over the Cowboys. Everything points to Reggie Bush exploding this week. Saints by seven.

SEATTLE at St. Louis -- Unlike Bill Simmons, I'm not, nor will I ever be, on the Rams bandwagon. Seattle is a better team with a better coach, better defense and better quarterback. Seahawks by three.

Tennessee at WASHINGTON -- The Skins will come back home, licking their wounds after that terrible performance last week. The Titans blew a big chance to send shockwaves through the NFL. And now they will return to the lowest valley in the league from which they came. Redskins by 10.

Kansas City at PITTSBURGH -- I'm taking the Steelers at home. They need the victory and Damon Huard is the Chiefs' quarterback. Enough said. Steelers by seven.

Miami at NEW YORK JETS -- Never pick the Dolphins. Jets by seven.

SAN DIEGO at San Francisco -- The Chargers are the team to beat. And no, there isn't a bias because I'm starting Philip Rivers in fantasy. Chargers by 10.

Oakland at DENVER -- The Raiders...'Nuff said. Plus, Denver is home, riding high and playing in a rivalry game against a far less talented team. Broncos by 10.

CHICAGO at Arizona -- The Bears against Matt Leinart? Is this a joke? The Bears maul the Cards by 14.

That's it. Call home. Tell your friends. And never forget to check out www.pittsnews.com or listen to me on the radio Monday mornings at 9, streaming at www.wpts.org/live.

From the Championship Series to the NFL

The Pittsburgh Steelers are in a heap of trouble. Starting 1-3 for the first time since the 2002 season, Blitzburgh is quickly falling behind in its division. In fairness, people wrote them off last year after a late-season, three-game losing streak, only to find the Steelers crowned Super Bowl champs weeks later.

I know, I know -- the season is only five weeks old, but the Steelers offense might enter panic mode this week. Ben Roethlisberger has thrown seven interceptions without tossing one touchdown pass. In total offense, Pittsburgh ranks 25th in the entire league. Furthermore, even with 1,000-yard rusher Willie Parker, the Steelers are only 22nd in the league running the ball. And when your total defense isn't top-five material -- especially against the pass (22nd in the league) -- things are going to go poorly.

I wouldn't say the Steelers are done, but unless they string together some wins starting next week at home against Kansas City, they are on the brink of extinction. With the Ravens and Bengals poised to take over control of the division, things are now-or-never for the Steelers. The schedule doesn't favor Pittsburgh, finishing the season with three games against three tough, talented teams (at Carolina, Baltimore and at Cincinnati).

Moving on to baseball, things are heating up. We have our ALCS and NLCS matchups all ready to go -- Detroit and Oakland in the AL; St. Louis (really?) and the New York Mets in the NL. Let's visit key factors in each series.

Showing their stripes
1) The Tigers need to hit -- I don't know if their starters and bullpen can throw as well as they did against the Yankees.
2) Their starters must throw strikes and avoid big situations in which Frank Thomas can cause damage -- Thomas was a beast against Minnesota (5-10, 2 HRs, 3 runs).
3) And obviously the Tigers need to win at least one in Oakland, where the A's were 49-32 this year. But the Stripes were 49-32 on the road, and the experience winning on the road could help them in the first two games, especially with Oakland on longer rest.

Breaking the Curse of Billy Beane?
1) The A's have to be careful against the Tigers at home (see above) and if they aren't able to get on base as easily as the Minnesota series, they could find trouble.
2) How healthy is Rich Harden? If he can go in Game Three, as he's slated to do, he'll have to be solid. I think Zito is good for three starts should this series take all seven games, but the A's still need at least one good start from both Esteban Loaiza and Rich Harden, because Dan Haren will matchup with Justin Verlander.

These are the matchups (with games 5-7 projected):
Zito-Nate Robertson
Loaiza-Kenny Rogers
Haren-Verlander
Harden-Bonderman
Zito-Robertson
Loaiza-Rogers
Haren/Harden-Verlander

I think the matchups favor the Tigers, especially when we don't know how healthy Rich Harden is. So I'll take the Tigers in seven.

Meet the Mets
1) Just hit -- if the Mets hit, the pitching will only need to be adequate. And the Cards don't stack any lefties in their rotation, meanwhile the Mets feast on righties -- go figure.
2) Just get Willie into the fifth or sixth, then Willie can get his bullpen involved -- a major advantage leaning for the Mets.
3) Win with Tom Glavine on the mound, otherwise the Mets might find themselves in trouble with shaky starters John Maine, Steve Trachsel and Oliver Perez throwing games 2-4.

Surprise in the Cards?
1) Get Scott Rolen going -- the bopper only hit 1 for 11 in the NLDS against San Diego, and the pressure is only bigger now.
2) Win with Chris Carpenter -- the same philosophy as Glavine and the Mets: If the Cards can't win with Carpenter, they can't win many other ways.
3) Get either Jeff Suppan or Jeff Weaver going, they'll need another innings-eater with Carpenter to help carry the load. The bullpen is atrocious beyond closer Adam Wainwright and no way will Anthony Reyes or Jason Marquis help in Game 4.

These are the matchups with games 5-7 projected
Weaver-Glavine
Suppan-Maine
Carpenter-Trachsel
(This is where the trouble lies for St. Louis -- do they start Weaver on three days rest? Or go with Anthony Reyes, a guy who's struggled all year with his command and stamina, or Jason Marquis, a pitcher who relies on a sinkerball that doesn't sink and nothing else to rely on? But they will throw against Oliver Perez, a guy who could either be unhittable or terrible, with more odds put on him being awful.)
Weaver?-Glavine
Suppan-Maine
Carpenter-Trachsel

If the series makes it to Game Seven, I'll take the Cardinals. But I don't see it going more than fives games, with the Mets winning every game but Game 3.

So, after taking the Twins-Padres, and biting on it, I'm taking Tigers-Mets with my fingers crossed. I know the Athletics are good, but I like the Tigers mystique.

NFL Week Five Picks

Welcome back to another fine edition of Weekly Picks with yours truly. After three weeks of picking and four weeks of NFL football, I hold a 31-13 overall record when picking the winners. The downside? I'm only 20-24 picking the margin of victory.

Moving on to the picks of the week…

Buffalo at CHICAGO – I might sound crazy, but the Bills aren't completely out of this game. I wouldn't be surprised if they gave the Bears a run for their money. Think about it – the Bills are coming off a great home win and the Bears are coming off a colossal, emotional victory Monday night. Could there be a bigger chance for a letdown? Regardless, never pick against the Bears. Chitown by six.

Cleveland at CAROLINA – I thought the Browns looked almost average...until they squeaked out a victory against Oakland. Granted, it was in Oakland, in that difficult road atmosphere, but really, it's the Raiders. Carolina is coming back into form with a two-headed monster in the backfield and a recovering Steve Smith. The Panthers should win easily. I'll say by 10.

Detroit at MINNESOTA – Love the Vikes at home. Hate the Lions on the road. Heck, hate the Lions anywhere. I can't pick them in any game. I'm just waiting for people to hunt down Matt Millen (I'm surprised they haven't already) and put his head on a stick. Vikings by seven.

Miami at NEW ENGLAND – I have Chris Chambers on my fantasy team. Yeah, a Pro Bowl receiver with boat loads of talent, not to mention 4,000-plus yards receiving and 41 touchdowns in his career with Miami. Apparently picking him in fantasy is a "bandwagon" pick because some experts at assorted sports media outlets said Miami would be good this year. I picked him because he is a solid playmaker and has had several good years. His main problem? His quarterback is terrible – yeah, Good Doctor picked Culpepper up, in case you were wondering. Nonetheless, the Pats look like they are finally ready to roll, and Miami couldn't be a better team for the Pats to play heading into their bye week. Pats by seven.

ST. LOUIS at Green Bay – Did you see that Monday Night Football game? I assume you did. That's why I'm picking the Rams to win at Lambeau. St. Louis by three.

Tampa Bay at NEW ORLEANS – The Saints should win this game in Bruce Gradkowski's first start in the spotlight for the Bucs. I'm intrigued to see how he does. Hopefully Reggie Bush and Cadillac Williams get it together this week (again, the whole fantasy thing) but I wouldn’t hold my breath. N'ahlins by 10.

Tennessee at INDIANAPOLIS – I think any team in the AFC with a shot at the playoffs would kill for a chance to play the Titans and Texans twice each. Indy is going to kill, and I mean absolutely murder, the Titans. I'll take the Colts by 14.

Washington at NEW YORK GIANTS – Look for the Giants to get things back in order – at least for now – when they play this big rivalry game. The Redskins offense looked downright explosive last week against a great defense (Jacksonville), so keep an eye on Mark Brunell and Clinton Portis, they will be the keys for Washington. But I like home teams in the NFC East. Giants by three.

Kansas City at ARIZONA – I'm gonna go out on a limb and say the Chiefs big win over the 49ers last week isn't exactly the kind of team the Chiefs really are. I like the Cards at home, even if they don't have an offensive line or much of a defense. I really have no reason to pick Arizona, so let's just get that out on the table. Cards by three.

New York Jets at JACKSONVILLE – Did you hear that? That was the sound of Eric Fatgini's triple cheeseburger sub from Enzo's Pizzeria on Long Island hitting its wrapping. The real question is – was it while Fatgini was watching Jacksonville's defense on tape or his Jets’ defense on tape? The Jags defense is too physical for the Jets' O. And the Jags offensive line is too physical for the Jets' D-line, so the Jets will have trouble getting any pressure on Kenan Thompson – you know, the kid from Kenan and Kel. Jags by seven.

Oakland at SAN FRANCISCO – And no, there isn't a worse game all season than this one. Ugh, 49ers by seven.

Dallas at PHILADELPHIA – Sticking with my "NFC East teams don't lose division games at home" theory, even though home teams in the NFC East are 1-1 this year against division foes. I'll take Philly. This is a huge emotional game for the Iggles. Philly by seven.

Pittsburgh at SAN DIEGO – Give me one good reason why the Steelers can even come close in this game? The Chargers will be at home, looking for blood after blowing a win against Baltimore and the Steelers couldn't be more vulnerable. This might be the biggest game of the season for Pittsburgh. I'm intrigued to see how they respond. They came through whenever they needed to last year, can they do it this year? I say no. Chargers by seven.

Baltimore at DENVER – I expect the NFL's undefeated teams to dwindle down to Chicago and Indy after this Monday Night Football contest. The Broncos are so tough at home. Plus they have a stingy defense that should stifle the poor Ravens offense. On the other side, the Ravens' D is probably the best in the league. But the Broncos' O is much more functional than the Ravens' O. Broncos by three in a very, very low-scoring affair.

There you have it. Again, check out www.pittnews.com for great, up-to-date sports coverage in and around the University of Pittsburgh. Also, tune in to the Water Cooler Conversation every Monday morning at www.wpts.org/live or live on your radio dial at 92.1 FM. And if you have time, go to www.thepalestra.com and check some of my web-television reporting from Pitt. Enjoy the weekend, folks.

NFL Quarterly Update

Football season is one quarter completed -- at least in the NFL. So I figured I toss my playoff predictions your way after watching significant football in the first four weeks, getting a grasp on potential contenders, sleepers and duds.

But before I get into my projections, let's talk about something that happened Saturday night. Nine of my friendly lady friends hosted a "Pitt Panther Pride Party," at which Panther fans showed up with their gear on in support of Pitt football.

The party filled their house with people. I have to admit, I didn't recognize many of them, and by midnight or so, I was too drunk to really care. But sometime after midnight, one of the girls came downstairs to the door, where I had taken up shop collecting dough for kids coming in.

She announced something I'd never forget: someone had defecated in their bathtub. Yes, defecated. Pooped. Launched a dookie rocket. Now obviously, it was a guy. Girls don't poop -- especially in other girls' bathtubs. So we assume it was one of the random dudes there.

Now hear me -- any person on the Pitt campus known to be harboring, aiding or abetting a member of al-Crappa will be punished. Severely. The girls at McKee and their large circle of friends will not sleep under Defecata bin Crappen is found.

Anyway, let's talk about the NFL. I will offer this disclaimer -- my picks will clearly be only half right. I'm going to catch a lot of heat for what I say about certain teams in certain cities where yours truly currently resides.

AFC's Top Two:
Indianapolis 14-2; The Colts are the best regular season team in the NFL. But as long as Manning is quarterback, I have a hard time saying they'll make any runs in the playoffs. Yet they are so hard to pick against in the regular season.
San Diego 12-4; Despite Sunday's loss to the Ravens in Baltimore, I still like the Chargers D and LaDanian Tomlinson. This offense will be quality all season and its going to be real tough to win in San Diego.

AFC's Other Two Division Winners:
New England 11-5; The Patriots will play more like the team we saw in Cincinnati than the team we saw in the first few games. Brady finally has a go-to receiver picked out and the two-headed monster of Corey Dillon and Laurence Maroney will wear out opponents week in and week out.
Cincinnati 11-5; Yeah, yeah. You're wondering where I've got the Ravens if they aren't winning the AFC North. Call me crazy, but I still have faith that the Bengals are the team to beat in the division. I don't think they will be the Super Bowl contenders that everyone said they'd be (including me) before the season unless Carson Palmer returns fully to his old self and the Bengals D actually stops the run.

AFC Wild Card:
Baltimore Ravens 10-6; The Ravens still have a brutal schedule in front of them. And I can't quite point my finger on it, but there's just something about Steve McNair that makes me throw up in mouth -- maybe the fact that he's more beat up than a West Virginia girl (low blow?).
Jacksonville Jaguars 10-6; The Jags defense is physical. They've hit some tough games at Indy and Washington the past two weeks, but I like the schedule down the stretch -- it's easier than a Penn State girl. They will defend their way to a lot of victory.

Yeah, sorry bud, No Dice:
Pittsburgh 9-7; In their division with their schedule, nine wins might be stretching it. I can't give Ben Roethlisberger the benefit of the doubt because he just doesn't look comfortable. The real test will be in San Diego Sunday. Roethlisberger will have had two weeks of rest and practice to really get things in order, and practicing against a great defense like Pittsburgh's helps.
New York Jets 8-8; Give the Jets one season under Eric Mangini before we expect them to challenge for the AFC East title. In the meantime, they'll rustle some feathers (see: Indianapolis 31, New York Jets 28) and make a run at the wild card spots.
Denver Broncos 9-7; The defense looks really good. They have such a difficult schedule that I have a hard time giving them a playoff spot. I don't think they can handle the Chargers or even the Chiefs on the road. And I don't like the offense.

The NFC's Top Two:
Chicago 13-3; I just looked through their schedule and couldn't find a game that they can't win. The defense is absolutely incredible. The offense is suddenly capable with a healthy Rex Grossman. Add Thomas Jones, a serviceable back with some experience, and the Bears are the best team in the NFL.
Seattle Seahawks 12-4; I'm not falling off the bandwagon yet. The loss against the Bears was alarming, but not bad enough to drop them into the next category. They are still the team everyone is gunning for in the NFC. And when Shaun Alexander comes back, they will be ready to make a run.

NFC's Other Division Winners:
Atlanta 11-5; The Falcons have the defense and the running attack to wear down opponents. This division is the most competitive around, with Carolina and New Orleans challenging for the top spot. But I have trouble seeing Hotlanta go anywhere once the playoffs begin.
Philadelphia 11-5; The Eagles are good. Donovan McNabb looks really fantastic so far. As long as he stays healthy and keeps connecting with Donte' "Why the Apostrophe?" Stallworth, they will be dangerous downfield. The defense beats people up. The only problem is the difficulty of the division will tax Philly into a few losses.

NFC Wild Card:
Carolina 10-6; I can't pick against them after the last two games. They have two running backs that offer dangerous breakout threats and a defense that pressures any quarterback. I'm not on the Super Bowl Bandwagon like everyone else, but they are a good team.
Dallas 10-6; The Eagles main contention for the NFC East. The only problem, as was the problem for the Pats and Bills in years past, is Drew Bledsoe. I don't like him as a player, or should I say a statue?

Well this is awkward, but you guys didn't make it, sooo I guess we'll see you later;
New Orleans 9-7; The Saints will need one more season, I think, to crash the playoffs. They are the feel-good story in the NFL, but I don't trust their defense.
Washington Redskins 9-7; Mark Brunell always looks better when Clinton Portis is running, but still, the 'Skins will need a lot to take on Dallas and Philly.
Minnesota Vikings 8-8; I like the Vikes, but they don't possess the offense to get things done against a really tough schedule.
St. Louis 8-8; Marc Bulger -- need I say more?

AFC Championship Game:
San Diego over Indianapolis

NFC Championship Game:
Chicago over Seattle

Chicago over San Diego in Super Bowl XLI. There you have it. Check back with me if you've found Defecata bin Crappen.

NFL Week Four Picks

Welcome to the third week of predictions for which I pick both a winner and the margin of victory. I count them separately, so if I picked Cincinnati over Pittsburgh by 10, and Cincinnati won by eight, I'm 1-0 picking the winner, 0-1 picking the score. Simple enough, right?

Before we get into the picks, I was watching Laguna Beach yesterday after reading Bill Simmons little rant about the sheer lack of personality of the male characters in the show. I mean, it's a new season, so it's funny to see the new characters, especially guys like Cameron -- a Jason impersonator -- try to act (yeah, I said act. So what, big deal, wanna fight about it?).

But I just wanted to mention the gradual increase in ridiculously hot female cast members since season one. The first season we had LC and Kristin. They battled for hot-girl supremacy. Then in season two, Kristin held the top spot easily, but Jessica, Alex H., Alex M. and even Taylor made some noise. And now in the third season, there's Tessa, Kyndra, Lexie and Breanna, with scores of other girls making cameos.

Sure, most of those girls pale in comparison to one or two of the ridiculously hot girls in the show. But think about it, if these girls went to your high school, they would easily be the hottest girl. I don't know about you, but that bothers me. I can't quite figure out why, but it does. Kind of like Regis Philbin -- no one really likes him, but we can't figure out why. Is it the annoying voice? The overexuberant chatter? Who knows. But he just isn't an enjoyable figure.

But more to the point, do they even go to school? Someone should look into this. Has anyone ever seen them doing homework or essays? Or even complaining about school work or getting into college? I want to know. And I want to know now. Someone call the creepy dude who always looks mad on Law and Order: Criminal Intent (I think his name is Vincent D'Onorfio -- don't count on it though).

Also, I highly recommend you go on Wikipedia and read the "Controversy" section at the end of the article. It has inside information on the reality of the show. Apparently Jason smashed Alex's head into a locker at school and that's why they broke up. How hilarious is that? I knew the kid was terrible, but not that bad. So check it out. Right after you research Mario Lopez and Jaleel White.

Anyway, I have NFL picks to make. This week just isn't quite there in terms of contests like last week, but we'll go with it.

Arizona at ATLANTA --The Falcons ran into the gauntlet Monday and had no chance of escaping. No way were the Saints going to lose their first game back at the Superdome. But the Falcons are still good, and with the controversy stewing already in Arizona, the cards are stacked against Kurt Warner and company (pun intended). Falcons by seven.

DALLAS at Tennessee -- In spite of all the T.O. business going on this week, something about which I don't think I should opine, the Cowboys will be ready to play after the bye week. Give Bill Parcells two weeks against a lowly team like the Titans, who are suffering the same problems as the Cardinals with a far less talented team, and the Cowboys are easy favorites. Dallas by 10.

INDIANAPOLIS at New York Jets -- This could be an interesting contest if the Jets play well. They've looked pretty decent so far. But the Colts are too good for me to pick against them. It'll either be a close one or a brutal beatdown, but I say Colts pull away in the end by eight.

MIAMI at Houston -- You won't see me picking this many road teams unless the host clubs are terrible. And this week, they are. Miami isn't better than Houston by more than a running back, but the fact that every analyst second-guesses any move made in Houston makes me question the confidence in the locker room. Dolphins by three.

MINNESOTA at Buffalo -- The Vikes should've won last week. The Bills should've won last week. The difference? The Vikings played the Bears; the Bills played the Jets. The Bears are a Super Bowl contender; the Jets are a snow ball's prayer of a wild card contender. Minnesota recharged its batteries when Brad Johnson took over last season and boating is now illegal in Minneapolis. Vikings by three.

New Orleans at CAROLINA -- The dream start to the Saints' season will end this weekend. Not that I'm ready to hop back on the Panthers bandwagon after they squeaked out a win over Tampa Bay, but just because the Saints will be in serious letdown mode after their inspirational performance Monday night. Carolina by seven.

SAN DIEGO at Baltimore -- This will be the first test of the season for both of these clubs. San Diego beat up on Oakland and Tennessee; Baltimore crushed Tampa Bay, Oakland and Cleveland. Call me crazy, but I like the Chargers on the road. It should be close, with a good offense meeting a good defense, so I'll say San Diego by two. Why? Because offense wins games (I know, I know, "But defense wins championships.").

San Francisco at KANSAS CITY -- The Chiefs have had two long weeks to lick their wounds after an 0-2 start under new coach Herm Edwards. If Brian Westbrook torched San Fran on the ground, then Larry Johnson will literally restart the gold rush against the 49ers. Even without Trent Green, the Chiefs should be the favorites. KC by six.

Detroit at ST. LOUIS -- The Rams are a tough team. Detroit can't buy a win. Rule #368 in picking winners of NFL games: Never pick a team that loses -- at home -- to the Packers. Rams by seven.

CLEVELAND at Oakland -- The Raiders are terrible. And so are the Browns. Cleveland by 10.

JACKSONVILLE at Washington -- The Jags will be hungry after their tough loss last weekend. There is no chance that Mark Brunell will repeat his performance from last week. Jacksonville by seven.

New England at CINCINNATI -- Both of these teams have yet to look good. But Cincy is more likely to get things going. Tom Brady is quietly furious and the Pats' offense couldn't look worse. Keep an eye out for Carson Palmer -- can he hold on to the football and keep his composure in the pocket? He played rather poorly against Pittsburgh last week and still won, but the Pats are a tougher opponent that will make Cincy pay for its mistakes. And yet, I still like the Bengals by six.

Seattle at CHICAGO -- What a fantastic match up. But on Sunday night, the Seahawks will be running that spread, four-receiver offense without much of a running game. Give the Bears only one thing to defend against and your offense is more doomed than trout swimming in a barrel in a grizzly's lair (what, bad joke?). Bears by four.

Green Bay at PHILADELPHIA -- In the worst Monday Night Football contest so far, the Eagles will feast on the Pack. D-Mac looks great so far and Donte' "Why the Apostrophe?" Stallworth is back this week. The Packers can't beat anyone on the road except for the Lions. Eagles by 13.

OK, so at this point, I'm 22-8 picking the winners of games and 14-16 picking the right margin of victory.

As always, tune in on Monday morning at 9 for the Water Cooler Conversation with Matt Bolks, Ken Lynch and me. Catch it streaming at www.wpts.org/live. And also keep an eye out for The Pitt News sports section, it always has good stuff from a great staff. Take 'er easy.

NFL Week Three Picks

I had a great first pick week after Week Two: 13-3 picking winners and losers, 11-5 covering my own spreads. Anyway, as usual, there's a plethora of exciting games this weekend. Let's git dahn to it (that's my typed Pittsburgh accent).

Tennessee at MIAMI -- I will keep picking Miami, and they will keep disappointing me. Basically for this game, it came down to which team was more likely to beat themselves. Dolphins by a touchdown (if they can score one).

Jacksonville at INDIANAPOLIS -- The game of the week in my opinion, although there's another one in Pittsburgh at the same time. Jacksonville's defense might be one of the few in the league capable of slowing down Peyton Manning. And they'll do that in Jacksonville. But the Colts are at home and home is where the heart is. Colts by three.

WASHINGTON at Houston -- Wow. Two of the first three games are awful. I feel weird, especially after saying how great the week was going to be. Anyway, I will pick against Houston every game and let them beat me once or twice. Same with Oakland. I can't wait to see how bad Mark Brunell is this week, but it won't be bad enough to lose to the lowly Texans. 'Skins by seven.

Green Bay at DETROIT -- Finally, an easy win for the Lions. Wait, what? Roy Williams, anyone? This continues the trend of terrible games at a 75% clip. Another team I'll pick against all year? The Packers. Detroit by six.

New York Jets at BUFFALO -- The Bills look like the surprise team in the AFC East -- surprise in a good way. At home against the Jets should be a game the Bills can win. Buffalo by three.

CAROLINA at Tampa Bay -- The Bucs just don't have it together. And with a gun pointed to my head, I'm calling the Panthers by four.

CINCINNATI at Pittsburgh -- The Bengals, along with the Chargers. are my favorites to make the AFC Title game. The Steelers aren't going to make the playoffs. The Bengals begin their quest to drive Pittsburgh into a summer-long depression with a 10-point win.

CHICAGO at Minnesota -- I keep picking teams on the road, but Chicago looks like a top tier team in the NFL. Defensively, they make plays. Offensively, they don't mess anything up. The Vikes are good, but da Bears are better. Chitown by seven.

BALTIMORE at Cleveland -- It doesn't get any easier for the Browns. Their first three games are against opponents with a combined 6-0 record. How fun. Baltimore will either win the AFC North or get a wild card bid to the playoffs. This game will be in their win column, Ravens by 10.

NEW YORK GIANTS at Seattle -- Remember last year's game? It won't happen this year, but it was quite the finish. This is where the we-lost-the-Super-Bowl-and-we-are-going-to-disappoint slump kicks in. Giants by six.

PHILADELPHIA at San Francisco -- I'm sorry, but the 49ers beating the Rams at home isn't going to convince me that they are a surprise team. Give me 10 weeks and a 7-5 record and maybe we'll talk. Iggles by seven.

St. Louis at ARIZONA -- The Cardinals will tough to compete with at home, and this game is going to be a great shootout. I like the Cardinals' receivers better, but I hope there are 65-70 points scored in this game. 'Zona by seven.

Denver at NEW ENGLAND -- Revenge. Denver stumbles into New England with 19 points scored in two games. Jake Plummer is already on the hot seat in Denver. The Pats haven't looked great so far, in fact, they've looked flat and relatively unorganized. But at home, against a lesser opponent, with a week with new receivers under his belt, Tom Brady will have his game together. Pats by 10.

Atlanta at NEW ORLEANS -- I think the Falcons are better than people thought they'd be, but on this emotional night, at this emotional stadium, with this emotional crowd, no way am I picking against the Saints. New Orleans 3-0?! REGGIE! REGGIE! REGGIE! Saints by three.

There you have it. I hope to continue my pick 'em streak.

Overall: 13-3 Against my spread: 11-5

NFL Week Two picks

After a long vacation from the blog, I've decided to try doing quick blurbs about each NFL game over the upcoming weekend and pick the winner. Let's have a go, shall we?

Buffalo at MIAMI -- The Bills put up a surprising performance against the Pats last weekend, nearly snatching a victory from the highly-touted Pats in Foxboro. But this weekend the Dolphins will be on a mission and I think last weekend was a fluke for Buffalo. They are still one of the five worst teams in the NFL. Dolphins by a touchdown.

Carolina at MINNESOTA -- I think the Panthers were cursed by the "This team is definitely going to the Super Bowl" chatter before the season even kicked off. The Vikings looked good AT Washington on Monday night, and I think they'll be just as good at home. Call it Vikings by three.

Cleveland at CINCINNATI -- Even though I liked Charlie Frye's performance for the Browns last weekend, everything else looked awful. The Bengals dominated Kansas City despite a mediocre performance statistic-wise by Carson Palmer. Cincinnati wins by two touchdowns.

Detroit at CHICAGO -- Did ya see Chicago's defense last week? Sure, it was against Brett "I still think I'm a gunslinger even though I should've retired in 2004" Favre, but the Bears suffocated them. Detroit struggled a bit on the offensive side of the ball, so they'll need to improve if they think they can even touch the Bears. They can't. Bears by 10.

Houston at INDIANAPOLIS -- Has there ever been a more unappealing game than this one? Houston is terrible and already regretting their drafting Mario Williams (who?) over Reggie Bush (Reggie! Reggie! Reggie!). The Colts will steamroll for points and win easily. Let's say Colts by 14.

NEW ORLEANS at Green Bay -- The Saints looked OK at Cleveland. Now put them at Lambeau against the worst QB in the NFL, and what do we have? Another Saints victory. 2-0! Reggie! Reggie! Reggie! OK, OK, Saints by a couple of field goals.

New York Giants at PHILLY -- I'm taking Philly at home. The Giants are good and they will win between 10-12 games, but playing in Philly is never easy -- especially when the Eagles are riding high. The Giants will beat Philly at Giants Stadium, but Philly beats the Giants at Lincoln Financial by three.

Oakland at BALTIMORE -- I am going to pick against Oakland every week and take the one or two wrong picks. Any team with Aaron Brooks as their quarterback is in trouble, but did you see them on Monday night? Worst team ever. And I mean ever. Meanwhile Baltimore was busy Sunday killing the Bucs at Tampa Bay. Call me crazy, but I think the Ravens will be even better at home. Baltimore by 24.

Tampa Bay at ATLANTA -- Did you see the Falcons' running game last week against the Panthers? It was dominant to say the least. I think the Bucs are in troublee and this week will prove so. Atlanta wins by a touchdown.

Arizona at SEATTLE -- I don't get why everyone thinks Arizona is some big sleeper team that will shock everyone and make the playoffs. Kurt Warner is not the second coming of Christ. And everytime a team is touted as a sleeper pick by everyone and their kid brother, they turn out disappointing. I'm taking Seattle at home (even with Deion Branch in jeans) by a touchdown.

ST. LOUIS at San Francisco -- The Rams looked good last week despite only scoring field goals. How crazy is that? The 49ers are in for another tough year. Call it a 10-point win for the Rams.

Kansas City at DENVER -- Let's see: You lose your franchise quarterback in the first week thanks to a blistering hit, then spend the whole week wondering how the hell you are going to win. Add your most bitter rival. Mix in some road trip. And what do you get? Denver wins by 10.

NEW ENGLAND at the New York Jets -- The Jets pumped out a decent performance last week before almost blowing the game. The Pats barely beat the Bills. But I fully expect the Pats to recover and win on the road against the weak Jets running game. Chad Pennington can't beat Belichick if Peyton Manning can't. Pats by three.

Tennessee at SAN DIEGO -- Duh. The Chargers might be my sleeper pick for Super Bowl Champs. We'll see. In the meantime, LT will run all over the Titans. Vince Young and Kerry Collins aren't going to win many games this early in the season. Chargers by two touchdowns.

Washington at DALLAS -- As much as I want to take the Redskins in this game, I gotta go with the home team. I hate picking anything that involves my trusting of Drew Bledsoe or T.O., but at home I think they can take care of business. Let's see how the Redskins bounce back after a tough loss Monday night. 'Boys by three.

Pittsburgh at JACKSONVILLE -- Remember when these guys played two years ago? It was incredible. It was physical, smash-mouth, take-no-prisoners football. But the Jaguars are good, and they're at home. Jags by three.

That's it for this week. If you get a chance, check out www.pittsburghpanthers.com and look over Pitt basketball's schedule, you will shout for joy. Also, check out www.pittnews.com for great sports coverage of Pitt sports. Take 'er easy.