Gamble with Keno Starting to Pay Off

Expectations in Rhode Island were high for Providence when the season started. I openly felt that the Friars would sneak up on some people and possibly even break into the top eight of the Big East. They returned four starters and a fifth, Sharaud Curry, who came back from a season-ending injury.

I said Curry would lead an explosive offense capable of hanging 100 on anyone. I said if PC could just defend even a little bit, the Friars wouldn't tank in Big East play like they had in years past and they might even make an NCAA Tournament run.

Outside of my friends who double as rabid Friars fans, no one believed me.

"The league is too tough," they'd say. "There are too many established powers to break in like that."

Well, Georgetown and Notre Dame are 3-5 in the conference, and Syracuse is riding a three-game losing streak, so there are open spots for hot teams.

Enter Providence, which just upended Syracuse, 100-94, last night.

The Friars are 6-2 in the Big East and 14-6 overall, with losses to Northeastern, Baylor, Saint Mary's, BC, Georgetown and Marquette. And each day that goes by, PC's home loss to CAA-leading Northeastern looks better. (No one will argue that it's OK that PC lost that game, but at least Northeastern isn't some mid-level CAA team.)

Now, with an RPI of 66, PC needs to get a few more marquee wins -- Syracuse is the only victory against an RPI Top 50 team, and against the RPI Top 100, PC is just 5-6. But the Friars have plenty more chances, with a ridiculous, yet typical, Big East sked coming up:

-- at UConn, a team waiting in the wings to be No. 1 in the country after Duke's loss last night, on Saturday

-- Villanova, the team that beat No. 3 Pitt last night, on Feb. 4

-- at West Virginia on Feb. 7

-- Two very winnable games at South Florida and at the Dunk against Rutgers

-- at Louisville on Feb. 18

-- Notre Dame on Feb. 21 -- this game will be in 200s with the defense these teams play

-- Pitt on Feb. 24

-- at Rutgers March 1

-- at Villanova on March 5

That's a tough sked. If you forced me to pick the games, I'd take PC over USF, Rutgers twice and Notre Dame, with the home contest against 'Nova being a toss-up, while the rest will be extremely tough to win. But a 10-8 or 11-7 Big East record has to be good enough to get the Friars into the NCAA Tournament, and a win at the conference tourney in the Big Apple would only help.

Lots of offense
The Friars have the offensive firepower to stay with anyone. They dropped 100 on No. 15 Syracuse and 98 on Seton Hall. We know Geoff McDermott is the best passing forward in the league. We know coach Keno Davis's teams will fill it up anywhere, anytime. And we know that if Sharaud Curry can cut down on turnovers and keep getting healthier, PC will have an elite scoring point man.

What you don't know is that Davis has two primetime perimeter players who don't get enough attention: two 6-5 wing players -- Weyinmi Efejuku and Marshon Brooks.

Efejuku has consistenly been a scorer for PC since he arrived on campus. He's a slasher who possesses a similar offensive game to Marquette's Wesley Matthews, another star 6-5 wing. Efejuku has been more consistent this year after clashing with former coach Tim Welsh over the past three years, and that has made a huge difference in PC's offensive attack.

Efejuku has to be more active on the defensive end -- as do all the Friars -- but right now, Efejuku, whether he's facing up or with his back to the tin, is a capable scorer who can torch anyone.

Brooks has emerged as PC's second scorer, even if he only plays a little more than 20 minutes off the bench. I'm pretty sure I've seen Brooks take 3s from Narragansett Bay, but his 21 points against Marquette, 30 against Sacred Heart and 17 against Syracuse last night show that he can stuff a stat sheet.

With Efejuku and Brooks leading the way, PC has a bevy of offensive threats -- Jeff Xavier is dangerous from anywhere on the floor, Curry is lightning quick with a fast release, McDermott can bang underneath and handle point-forward responsibilities, Jonathan Kale and Randall Hanke are serviceable in the paint, and once Brian McKenzie finds his J, he can be a force on the perimeter.

That's a lot of talent for a team no one is talking about.

The problem is, they aren't the most efficient offense, even with all that offensive talent. If you read Ken Pomeroy's scouting report on PC, it's not too promising. None of the four biggest areas of the game are very efficient for the Friars, but they keep winning.

So, PC has to do two things from here on out: Keep winning games that, in theory, it shouldn't be winning and improve its efficiency ratings on both ends of the floor. That means cutting down on turnovers, making (and attempting) more foul shots and getting more stops.

The Big East is a grind-it-out, beat-you-up league where most teams rely on rebounding and defense. Providence is bucking that trend. How long will that last? Who knows, that's why they play the games. But right now, Davis and his Friars have something going, and a few teams are suddenly trying to catch a Providence team no one thought would be rising to the top of the league standings, except the true believers.

The Beast Rears Its Ugly Head

The Big East is responsible for eight teams in both the AP and Coaches polls today. Only one other Big East team received any votes -- West Virginia got one AP vote.

So, how hard will it be for the teams that line up behind the Big 8?

Well, last year, the first year the conference went to 18-game schedule, 9-9 was the worst record that a Tournament team had in the Big East. This year, 8-10 might be acceptable, given the challenging nature of conference play.

This year, the five teams destined for Nos. 9 through 13 in the Big East are all doing reasonably well:

-- Seton Hall is 8-1, with wins against USC and Virginia Tech. Those should hold a lot of weight if the Pirates don't lose any bad games before conference play, which would leave them at 11-1 before Big East games start. SHU should finish at least 7-11 in conference, so stealing one or two games against the top 8 would go a long way. Eighteen wins might not be good enough unless SHU gets a good win against a top-15 team.

-- St. John's is also 8-1, albeit against a cupcake schedule. But still, hosting Miami (FL) and Duke at MSG gives the Red Storm two more opportunities to snag a marquee nonconference win. I just don't see St. John's getting more than seven conference wins, and without the marquee wins like Seton Hall, that's not good enough.

-- West Virginia is 7-2, with losses to Davidson (in New York) and Kentucky. Good wins came at Ole Miss and in Las Vegas against Iowa. Games against Miami (OH) and Ohio State (on the road) give the 'Eers a chance to get two more good nonconference wins. My initial count says WVU goes just 6-12 in the Big East, but knowing its track record at home, I'm willing to adjust to 8-10 or even 9-9. If WVU does that, and wins the rest of its nonconference sked aside from the one at Ohio State, it will finish 19-12. That's good enough, I'd say.

-- Cincinnati is 6-2, with losses against Florida State in Las Vegas and at home against No. 7 Xavier. Two nice wins against UNLV and UAB will help Mick Cronin's squad if its on the bubble in March. A matchup with Mississippi State this week and Memphis in two weeks gives the Bearcats two chances to grab another quality win. I only see Cincy getting 7 wins, which is too few, but a stolen win to get to 8 conference wins, plus a 10-3 nonconference record means 18 wins is possible.

-- Providence was the chic pick to steal one of the top 8 spots in the Big East this year, but the Friars struggled immediately, losing their first game to Northeastern ... at home. Now, PC is quietly 6-3, with a good win against Rhode Island. PC still plays at Boston College, but other than that, there really aren't any other spots for good nonconference wins. This enigmatic bunch looks primed for about a 6-12 or 7-11 finish in the Big East. Steal a win or two, and the Friars could have 17 or 18 wins to their ledger, which still might not be enough.

So, what do these teams do?
Well, that's easy to answer: win. Beating a ranked team or two on your home floor helps. Beating one on the road helps even more. Making sure you win games you should win and beating teams in similar situations as you (these five teams play each other plenty of times) can help overcome the ridiculously tough conference slate.

If I had to pick right now, I'd say Seton Hall and West Virginia are the two teams best positioned to sneak into the Tournament. Marquette and Villanova have some vulnerabilities that leave me thinking those two could struggle, potentially leaving space for one of these next-tier teams to sneak into the Big East's top 8. Keep an eye on Syracuse, too. It'll be interesting to see how the Orange deal with Eric Devendorf's almost certain season-long suspension.

Do any of these teams have the talent to match up with the Big 8? Out of this bunch, I'd say WVU and Providence do; the rest don't. But WVU has had injury issues, and Providence goes cold, can't play defense and is about as predictable as an M. Night Shyamalan movie.