La Copa Mundial: Day 5

When my dad was a youth league coach, he used to say that every match was really two separate yet related games: The first half and the second half. If you win one and lose one, you will tie. If you win one and draw one, or win both, you will be victorious. But if you win a half, then play terribly the other, you can give up enough goals to lose the match.

Today, Togo won the first half. They lost a man early in the second half to his second yellow card, which means they lost twice in the second half -- by score, and by overall confidence. The rest of the game South Korea dominated and won. Maybe my dad was right.

--France and Switzerland played to an eventful 0-0 draw. France looked a little shaky around the Swiss defense. They lacked the final touches for any goals, despite plenty of opportunities. The Swiss held it together in the back, looked pretty solid in the midfield and might have a shot to win the group at this point. I think South Korea will trouble France, and the Swiss should be able to beat Togo. That will give the Swiss the lead in the group, as I think France will draw South Korea. That means the final matches will be crucial in the group -- France vs. Togo and South Korea vs. Switzerland, with the French desperately needing points.

--Brazil played well, but Croatia outshined the returning champs, despite Brazil's 1-0 win. Ronaldinho was only somewhat effective in the midfield, and Kaka was the true star. He looked dazzling in his first World Cup start. Robinho played very well off the bench, making the starting slot in Brazil's next match against Australia up in the air. Ronaldo was walking for most of his time on the pitch, with his only chance coming after striking one shot just over the bar from outside the area. He looked lazy and out of shape, and Robinho looked sharp and hungry. So we'll see with that situation. Croatia looked so good that I think they can win their other two matches and make a run at winning the group. Brazil might be headed to nine points, which shouldn't surprise anyone as this match was the only one anyone considered a dangerous pairing for the Brazilians. But nonetheless, Brazil is in form and ready to repeat and Croatia looks dangerous.

--A few people have asked me what the United States' chances are at this point. Well, Group E looks like this:

Czech Republic 1-0-0 with three points and +3 goal differential
Italy 1-0-0 with three points and +2 goal differential
Ghana 0-1-0 with nothing and a -2 goal differential
USA 0-1-0 with no points and a -3 goal differential

The next match will probably put the U.S. on the brink, if not out of the Cup all together. With the Czech Republic and Ghana pairing off, I expect at least a draw for the Czechs. Assuming the two sides draw, then the U.S. still has hope. But they'd have to beat Italy. Good luck with that. Italy is a composed team with great World Cup experience and incredible skill. They are better than the Czechs. I think the U.S. winning against Italy would be a miracle. Bigger than the U.S. beating the Soviets in the Olympics. Yeah, I said it. It's that hard. So, the U.S. will be lucky to escape with a point, and then they'd need to beat Ghana by several goals, which I don't see happening; then the U.S. would hope the Czechs dismantle Italy, which also will not happen. In short, yes, the United States are done at World Cup 2006 after one match, thanks to goal differential and a very difficult group.

--Don't pay any attention to the FIFA World Rankings. They aren't really considered valuable to any soccer critics and analysts around the world. The favorites of this Cup, based on proven talent and great managing, are Brazil, Italy, Argentina, England and Germany, with Portugal, Holland and the Czech Republic as outside contenders. The following are the FIFA rankings of the aforementioned teams:

Brazil-1
Italy-13
Argentina-9
England-10
Germany-19
Holland-3
Portugal-7
Czech Republic-2

As you can see, the favorites are all highly rated, but I've listed the favorites in order of their expected finish. In other words, Italy, the second-highest rated favorite, is 11 spots below where they should be. Argentina and England are six and seven below, respectively. Plus, Nigeria is No. 11 and they aren't even in the Cup. Oh, and Denmark, the Nigerians' partner in possession of No. 11 aren't in Germany either. So the moral of the story is -- don't put too much faith in those rankings.

--Tomorrow's matches look interesting, with Spain and Ukraine topping my "Must See" list. The list doesn't really exist, but I will be up at 6:30 a.m. to see that match. Then I will go back to bed, skipping the Tunisia and Saudi Arabia game. If by skipping I mean watching it and staying awake. Haha. That match will decide who takes 3rd in Group H. I expect the Germany-Poland afternoon-cap match to be a good one. Poland needs three points and the Germans can lock up a spot in the next round with a win, or even a draw, honestly, with how even the other three teams in their group are. So I'll take a Spanish draw with the Ukraine, a Tunisian win over the Saudis and a German-Polish draw. Enjoy the games, and be sure to tell me your thoughts!