Tuesday, January 27, 2009

Homecourt Disadvantage


Notre Dame used to be a Final Four contender and was supposedly unbeatable at home. The Irish were in (almost -- look at No. 20) everybody's conversation of the top teams in the country. When they beat Texas, they were all the rage. Sure, they had a few bumps in the road, losing to then-No. 1 North Carolina and hot-starting Ohio State, but who doesn't when you play relatively tough nonconference schedule?

Then, conference play started.

Suddenly, Notre Dame, a team that was ranked as high as seventh in the nation, has fallen to 12-7 and 3-5 in the Big East. A four-game losing streak will do that to your team. The Irish had to run quite the gauntlet: five ranked teams in 19 days.

at Louisville: L, 87-73 in OT
at Syracuse: L, 93-74
Connecticut: L, 69-61
Marquette: L, 71-64
at Pitt: on Saturday

It's OK to lose to good teams. But Notre Dame really needed a win or two in this stretch. I've been saying for a while that the Irish have been overrated all year, but this is worse than I expected.

Last night, Marquette dutifully took apart Notre Dame's defense and hustled out a 71-64 win at the Joyce Center in South Bend. The Golden Eagles have the look of Villanova circa 2005-06, when the Wildcats ran with four guards for most of the game. Marquette go-to guys down the stretch were Maurice Acker, Dominic James, Jerel McNeal, Wesley Matthews and Lazar Hayward. That's 5-8, 5-10, 6-3, 6-5 and 6-6.

Not very big.

But, with McNeal leading the way, Marquette worked its way inside. There were a lot of tough, earn-that-wage baskets on putbacks or just strong moves to the basket. There was a lot of slashing. And what Marquette did best was slash and kick. Notre Dame's help defense would collapse around [insert ridiculously athletic Marquette guard here] and then that guard would toss it back out to a corner or wing, where another guard was open for a J.

It was simple, but effective.

On the other end, Notre Dame couldn't quite figure out a way to get its sharpshooter, Kyle McAlarney, the ball. James and others smothered McAlarney, who seemed frustrated that he couldn't get open. So, Notre Dame's offense turned stagnant, playing the "Get the Ball to Gody" strategy just a tad too much.

Don't get me wrong, Harangody was great. He had 29 points and 17 rebounds. But his team shot 36 percent. And when Notre Dame isn't shooting well, it's in deep, deep trouble.

Teams have clearly exposed that. And with Notre Dame's defensive efficiency nothing short of embarrassing, the Irish really don't have anywhere else to go. They have two options: Play better defense, or figure out how to get better offensive possessions. Whatever they pick, it has to be applied immediately, or we could be looking at the Big East's biggest victim of the season.

Elsewhere
-- BracketScience expert Pete Tiernan discovered that the Big Ten has the most successful NCAA Tournament coaches. Followed closely by Big East coaches:
The 11 coaches in the Big Ten have been the biggest overachievers of any set of Big Six conference coaches. Based on the seeding positions of their 62 tourney appearances, the Big Ten coaches should’ve won 83.3 games. They actually won 105 games, which works out to a hefty +.349 PASE—more than a third of a game per dance. Just as importantly, the Big Ten coaches have beaten seed expectations in 35 of their 62 tourney appearances, for a seed overachievement rate (SOAR) of 56.5 percent.

Compare the 11 Big Ten coaches to the 16 Big East coaches, the next best overperforming group. Their +.167 PASE constitutes about a sixth-of-a-game per tourney overachievement—nothing to sneeze at, but nowhere near the solid performance of the Big Ten. What’s more, Big East coaches have overachieved in only 43 of their 98 appearances, for a more unreliable SOAR of 43.9 percent. Granted, Big East coaches have reached the Final Four more than Big Ten coaches (12 to eight) and won more championships (four to two). But in terms of their ability to defy seed expectations, the Big Ten is solidly ahead of the Big East.
-- The worst string of six words in the history of mankind: Next, an hour of George Lopez!

-- Coming later today, my newest Top 10 Favorites. This time, it's awesome sitcoms.



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