Projecting the Field

I won't do seeds until next month, but we can at least look at who is a lock, who should be in and who is on the bubble. We'll go conference by conference.

It's clear right now that six or seven teams have legitimate shots at No. 1 seeds. If Louisville keeps playing the way it's playing, it might have an outside shot at the last top seed, but those losses to UNLV and Western Kentucky really hurt. But for now, we'll include them in the conversation.

Potential 1 seeds: Duke, UConn, Pitt, North Carolina, Wake Forest, Oklahoma, Louisville

You've probably read this elsewhere, but Oklahoma has the best shot at staying up here and not moving. The Sooners' Big 12 schedule is navigable the rest of the way. With 10 league games left, Oklahoma has three tough road games and two difficult home games. The Sooners go to Baylor, Texas and Missouri, and host Kansas and Oklahoma State. Even if Oklahoma loses one or two of those games, I don't see how it would slip out of top-seed status.

The reason behind Oklahoma's sturdy top-seed status right now is that the rest of the teams in contention could easily lose three, four or five more games. That's just how tough the ACC and Big East are this year. You've heard the refrain so many times that I don't have to repeat any more about these two leagues.

So, no one else is safe. But here are the resumes, from best to worst, for a No. 1 seed. Remember, there are four to give out ...

1. Duke: 18-1. RPI: 1; Strength of Schedule: 26; nonconference SOS: 67. Wins against RPI Top 50: at Purdue, Xavier, Davidson, Georgetown. Next big game: tonight, at Wake Forest.

2. Pitt: 18-1. RPI: 3; SOS: 19; nonconference SOS: 177. Wins against RPI Top 50: at Georgetown, Syracuse, at West Virginia. Next big game: tonight, at Villanova.

3. UConn: 18-1. RPI: 6; SOS: 40; nonconference SOS: 201. Wins against RPI Top 50: Miami (Fla.), Wisconsin, at Gonzaga, at West Virginia, Villanova, at Notre Dame. Next big game: Saturday, at Providence.

4. Oklahoma: 20-1. RPI: 12; SOS: 43; nonconference SOS: 141. Wins against RPI Top 50: Davidson, UAB, Purdue, Southern Cal, Utah, at Kansas State, Texas, Baylor, at Oklahoma State.

5. Wake Forest: 16-1. RPI: 11; SOS: 137; nonconference SOS: 282. Wins against RPI Top 50: Baylor, at BYU, North Carolina, Clemson. Next big game: tonight, vs. Duke.

6. North Carolina: 17-2. RPI: 2; SOS: 31; nonconference SOS: 128. Wins against RPI Top 50: Kentucky, Notre Dame, at Michigan State, Miami (Fla.), Clemson. Next big game: tonight, at Florida State.

7. Louisville: 15-3. RPI: 7; SOS: 22; nonconference SOS: 160. Wins against RPI Top 50: UAB, Kentucky, at Villanova, Notre Dame, Pitt, at Syracuse. Next big game: Saturday, vs. West Virginia.

So, right now, I'd say the top seeds would be Duke, Pitt, UConn and Oklahoma. And Wake Forest, UNC and Louisville would be some very good No. 2 seeds.

Anyway, who's in and who's out ... Number of bids is in parentheses. If a league only has one team listed, that's the auto bid.

America East (1): Vermont

Atlantic 10 (1): Xavier, Dayton

ACC (6): Duke, Wake Forest, North Carolina, Clemson, Florida State, Boston College

Work to do: Virginia Tech. Bad out-of-conference losses will continue to just kill the Hokies. If they want to get into the Tournament, they need to keep beating the top dogs in the conference.

Miami. The Canes are too inconsistent right now to go either way, but four games in a row against Wake, Duke, UNC, FSU and BC are all good chances to get a marquee win. The problem is, Miami could easily go 1-4 or 0-5 in that stretch, meaning it would be stuck with 7 or 8 conference losses with three league games left.

Atlantic Sun (1): Jacksonville

Big 12 (5): Oklahoma, Kansas, Texas, Baylor, Missouri

Work to do: Oklahoma State. The Cowboys don't have any bad losses -- all six of them came against RPI Top 50 schools. But they are 2-3 in the league, and they'll need to be 9-7 to get in, just because the Big 12 isn't having it's best year. And also because OK State doesn't have one win against the RPI Top 50. Not one. But Kansas, Texas, Baylor and Kansas State are all still on the sked.

Big East (9): Marquette, Louisville, Pitt, UConn, Syracuse, Georgetown, Villanova, West Virginia, Notre Dame (but still a lot of work to do -- see below)

Work to do: Notre Dame. I've always maintained that the Irish were overrated coming into the season. They don't defend well enough to be an elite team, and they don't get results on the road. Now, they're 3-5 in the league and just 12-7 overall, riding a four-game losing streak. But it's the Big East, and for every lost opportunity, there's a new one right around the corner. You know, like playing at Pitt this Saturday. Plus, ND can get a decent win at UCLA a week from Saturday.

Providence. You know I love the Friars. That's my hometown team. But they still couldn't defend a CYO team. The only bad loss is against Northeastern, but PC has recovered nicely, munching on some cake through the beginning of conference play. The Friars need a big win or two, and Syracuse, UConn, Villanova, West Virginia, Louisville and Pitt are all still on their sked.

Cincinnati. Losing to PC twice doesn't help, but the Bearcats don't really have any bad losses. Still, they only have two good wins: UNLV and UAB, and those aren't hat-hangers. Pretty much everyone good in the Big East is still on their sked.

Big Sky (1): Portland State

Big South (1): VMI

Big Ten (6): Michigan State, Purdue, Minnesota, Illinois, Michigan, Ohio State

Work to do: Penn State. Not a great RPI, but the Nittany Kittens do have two good wins: Purdue and Northwestern (I can't believe I just typed that). If they keep winning the games they should win, and they squeak out a 9-7 or 10-6 Big Ten record, Penn State might have a shot at sneaking in as a 10, 11 or 12 seed.

Wisconsin. It's an off-year for the Badgers. But the loss to Iowa is really the only bad defeat. So, the Badgers can improve their chances with a solid run to finish the season. They need to finish 8-8 or better to have a legitimate shot.

Big West (1): Long Beach State

Colonial (1): Northeastern

Work to do: VCU. The Rams really have some bad losses, like Delaware and East Carolina, and they only have one good win -- New Mexico. Not exactly the best resume. Their RPI of 60 has to improve. They may need to win the league title to have a shot.

George Mason. You can't lose to Liberty and Hampton and expect to get in as an at-large team. GMU has to win the league.

Conference USA (2): Memphis, UAB

Work to do: Houston. Tough losses to Ole Miss, Mississippi State and Iowa State have Houston in a precarious position. The Cougs' only good win -- UAB -- isn't doing enough for them.

Tulsa. Losses to Tulane and Ohio are bad. The best win on Tulsa's sked is Oral Roberts. Yikes.

Horizon (1): Butler

Ivy (1): Cornell

MAAC (1): Siena

MAC (1): Buffalo

MEAC (1): Morgan State

Missouri Valley (1): Northern Iowa

Mountain West (2): UNLV, BYU

Work to do: Utah. Uh, the Utes lost to Southwest Baptist and Idaho State. But hey, they did beat Gonzaga, LSU and BYU. And they're RPI is a gaudy 28.

San Diego State. Probably shouldn't lose to Wyoming, but SDSU has a few more chances to make a splash in the MWC.

NEC (1): Robert Morris

Ohio Valley (1): Austin Peay

Pac-10 (6): Washington, Cal, UCLA, Arizona State, USC, Stanford

Work to do: Arizona. The Wildcats have to get back to .500 in league play. There aren't any real head-scratcher type of losses, and Gonzaga, Kansas and Houston are nice wins, but 'Zona has to start playing better in conference.

Patriot (1): Holy Cross

SEC (4): Kentucky, Florida, Tennessee, South Carolina

Work to do: LSU. The Tigers are 15-4 overall and 3-1 in the worst power conference. They need to do more, like beat a team inside the RPI Top 50.

Southern (1): Davidson

Southland (1): Texas A&M-Corpus Christi

SWAC (1): Alabama State

Summit (1): North Dakota State

Sun Belt (1): Western Kentucky

West Coast (2): Saint Mary's, Gonzaga

WAC (1): Utah State