Getting Ready for March

It still feels like it was yesterday. The floor pulsating. Vibrations, picked up by my feet, riding up my spine. Bands battling. The audience humming. Basketballs bouncing. All grew louder as I made my way down the tunnel toward the main event. I felt like a tree branch floating along in a tributary that spit you out into a vast ocean. When I entered the Palace at Auburn Hills, my life was forever changed. I was overwhelmed with so many emotions.

It was the first time I'd ever covered an NCAA Tournament. To this day, that moment stands as the happiest I've ever been in my life.

So you can see why I'm amped up for March 2010. Just like every year since my childhood, March is my favorite month. The frenzied pace at which college basketball's regular season ends and spills into the postseason just fills me with joy. You know what else makes me happy? Bracketology.

If the Tournament was today, this is how I think it would look ...

1 seeds: Kansas, Kentucky, Syracuse, Duke

2s: Kansas State, West Virginia, Villanova, Purdue

3s: Ohio State, New Mexico, Michigan State, Pitt

4s: Wisconsin, Temple, Vanderbilt, Tennessee

5s: Gonzaga, Texas A&M, Butler, Xavier

6s: Baylor, BYU, Texas, Georgetown

7s: Maryland, Northern Iowa, Missouri, Richmond

8s: Wake Forest, Clemson, Oklahoma State, California

9s: Florida State, Louisville, Marquette, Georgia Tech

10s: Notre Dame, Illinois, UNLV, Florida

11s: UConn, Old Dominion, UTEP, Utah State

12s: Mississippi State, UAB, Minnesota, Saint Mary's

13s: Kent State, Murray State, Siena, Cornell

14s: Weber State, UC-Santa Barbara, College of Charleston, Oakland

15s: Stony Brook, Coastal Carolina, Morgan State, Sam Houston State

16s: Lipscomb, Robert Morris, Lehigh, Jackson State, Troy

What Makes a Coach of the Year?

It's been a while. Too long, even. But nothing gets you thinking about blogging like a Chipotle burrito for lunch, coffee for dinner and a burning question that eats away at your mind: What makes a coach of the year? (I understand that normal people don't fret about these things.)

There are so many stances to take. You can be a numbers guy or gal -- the coach of the best team should be the coach of the year (Bill Self). You can go by the most miraculous -- see: Martin, Frank. You can side with the How Do They Do It? folks who love to see coaches win and win again despite losing huge numbers of impact players -- looking at you, Jim Boeheim and Jamie Dixon. Or you can even saddle up on a feel-good pony, like someone who might like BYU's Dave Rose or New Mexico's Steve Alford.

Or you can go the John Calipari route. It's hard to argue with these folks -- because they're in your camp, whichever tent you sleep in. He's a numbers guy -- 25-1 through Friday night. He's a miracle worker -- the man basically infused Kentucky's roster with a veritable McDonald's All-America team and turned an NIT team into a national title contender in a matter of months. (Seriously, say NIT in Kentucky and they think it's a new government stimulus program.) He's a How Do They Do It guy with an asterisk, but not because he juiced up like Big Bad Barry Bonds, more because he has done the whole reloading-not-rebuilding thing at every program he's coached. He's the feel-good pony for roughly 3 million people, which, for those counting at home, is about 3/4 of the estimated population of the state of Kentucky. (The other quarter roots for Louisville, Western or Eastern Kentucky, Murray State and/or some kind of miracle.)

Now I think I just argued that Calipari should be coach of the year. It's not decided -- I think Boeheim is right there with him, along with Martin -- but how can he not win it? Dude left a cushy job for a high-intensity one, a relatively relaxed, if-he-wins-it's-great-if-he-loses-whatever atmosphere for a he-better-win-every-game-or-we'll-run-him-out-of-town one. Lots of pressure. And he has done nothing short of blow it out of the water.

On a side note: Imagine the expectations for Calipari after this season, regardless of how far the Cats go. If they win a title, Cal will never sleep again. Call it the reverse championship bonus, like winning the presidency or a lifetime supply of Popeye's. Normally when you win (or eat, if you're still tagging along with the Popeye's joke), you pass out from celebrating. But at Kentucky, you wake up the next day, put your title ring on and go recruit the next class of champs. At least that's what the section under "job responsibilities" said when Cal saw the opening on coachingjobs.com (not a real site, people). But that's a topic for for another time.

Anyway, I'm not saying pressure -- or handling the pressure -- only affects Coach Cal. It's a pretty intense hoops community in Syracuse and Lawrence, too. But the coaches there are established, comfortable in their seats. Boeheim would have to lose like 100 recruiting battles to Tim O'Shea, Bryant's intrepid coach who inexplicably left Ohio to coach a transitional D-I school that is a whopping 0-8,000 this year (they're actually 1-28). And Bill Self would probably have to tell the local paper that he loves K-State or Missouri to get the locals to even think about heating up his seat.

Throw in Cal's incredible recruiting job and his handling of the 37 egos crammed into the 13 heads that look at the coach during film sessions and it's hard to not give him the coach of the year award.

The point is this, you can be in any camp you want, observe any coach-of-the-year mantra you want, but if one guy plays to every crowd, it's hard to deny him that honor.

Now watch Kentucky become the first-ever No. 1 seed to lose to a 16.

5 Huge Disappointments So Far

It's only the first week of January and conference play is just starting up, but it's hard to ignore the teams that have failed to live up to expectations so far. Let's run down a list of five teams that have been huge disappointments so far. And I want to mention the caveat that these teams could easily improve with about half of a season to play still.

OK, so here's the list. It's based on preseason ranks and expectations. The AP preseason rank is listed first, coaches' poll second.

5. North Carolina (6, 4): The Tar Heels (11-4) are returning champs and stacked with talent. Yes, there have been some injuries to key players (Marcus Ginyard, Will Graves). And it's not like UNC has lost four terrible games -- only one ... at College of Charleston -- but it'd be nice for the Heels to win a big game or two to make us feel warm and fuzzy.

You can't play down the early-season struggles of a team that features one of the top NBA prospects in America (Ed Davis) and a veritable who's who list of former McDonald's All-Americans. I can only assume the Heels will get it together for conference play. But for now, it's been a pretty disappointing start for the defending champs.

4. Illinois (23, NR): These days, the Fighting Illini are usually good for 20 wins, maybe a third- or fourth-place finish in the Big Ten and a first- or second-round loss in the NCAAs. That's not exactly a bad thing. But once again, there's plenty of talent on Bruce Weber's roster.

And that's why it's disappointing that Illinois (10-5) is off to just an OK start. Losses to Utah, Bradley, Georgia, Missouri and Gonzaga have the Illini in a tough spot. Weber's crew has three solid wins: Clemson, Vanderbilt and Northwestern. But five nonconference losses prior to a rugged Big Ten slate means that Illinois has to try to get to at least 11 wins in the conference to stay in a good spot.

3. California (13, 12): Cal was supposed to be the best team in the Pac-10. And it's not like the 9-5 Bears are terrible. But Mike Montgomery has a team that should be at the top of heap in the conference and in the running for a nice seed and favorable region in March. Instead, the Bears have whiffed on four chances for great resume wins (Syracuse, Ohio State, New Mexico, Kansas).

And then there's the loss to UCLA. Seriously? UCLA? I know there have been some injury problems and size was always going to be an issue for Cal, but even after three straight blowouts (including one against Stanford), losing to UCLA this year is not a good sign.

2. Oklahoma (17, 16): The Sooners have the talent (notice the running theme?). We were ready to commit to Oklahoma as the third wheel in the Big 12. Then, a few things happened: The Sooners lost to VCU, San Diego and Houston in a five-day span. And then Kansas State, Texas Tech and Texas A&M started playing well.

And here we are: Oklahoma is probably, at best, going to finish sixth in the Big 12. With Willie Warren back and Tiny Gallon coming in, and several other solid players on the roster, it looked like Oklahoma would be fine. But the post-Griffin brother era in Norman is not going as well as planned.

Bonus: UCLA (NR): No, the Bruins weren't ranked in either poll to start the season (although they were receiving votes). No, they weren't expected to be anything overly exciting. But they are UCLA. And there's no shortage of talent on Ben Howland's bench. So, where's the beef?

The Bruins are 7-8, albeit 2-1 in the Pac-10, with losses to ... drumroll please ... Cal State Fullerton, Portland, Butler, Long Beach State, Kansas, Mississippi State, Notre Dame and Arizona. Couple of bad apples in there, huh? But wins over Arizona State and (as we already covered) Cal have Howland's crew thinking positive.

1. Michigan (15, 15): The No. 15 team in both preseason polls, Michigan is 7-6 and in a lot of trouble. The Wolverines have to finish in the top four of the conference -- meaning 12 wins or so -- to even have a prayer at making the NCAAs as an at-large team. Losing to Kansas and Marquette isn't exactly terrible, but Utah, BC, Alabama and Indiana? Not ideal.

And it doesn't get any easier. There's a four-game stretch starting January 17 where Michigan plays UConn, at Wisconsin, at Purdue and then Michigan State. As Jerry Seinfeld says, good luck with all that.

How Bobby Gonzalez Is on the Hot Seat

During the buildup to the 2009-2010 college hoops season, I saw Seton Hall mentioned in several places as a "team to watch." It wasn't unwarranted: The Pirates are a bit of a wild card in a wide-open Big East, where slots No. 4 through 12 could be filled by any combination of teams.

Just look at the roster and, if you follow college hoops recruiting in any way, shape or form, you'll recognize a lot of guys on it: Keon Lawrence, Herb Pope, Eugene Harvey, Jeff Robinson. And though they weren't necessarily big-time recruits out of high school, Jeremy Hazell, John Garcia and Robert Mitchell have made an impact on the Big East (in the cases of Hazell and Mitchell, more than just an impact). Plus, Jordan Theodore is expected to take on a bigger role after a solid freshman season.

And yet, without the Pirates playing a game, Bobby Gonzalez is on the hot seat already, even with his brand-new contract extension. (I've said it before, I'll say it again, extensions rarely mean much in college sports. They are props to use for recruits.)

He came to Seton Hall with a reputation as a fiery coach, one who could recruit with the big boys and turn the sagging SHU program around. But he's had three consecutive mediocre seasons with medicore talent, and he hasn't snagged a single big-name recruit from Seton Hall's backyard. If Seton Hall's previous methods of handling coaches (see Orr, Louis) is any indication, Bobby doesn't have much more time to turn things around.

All that said, if there's a season where Bobby can produce a really competitive Seton Hall, it's this year. This is the first season that I haven't looked at Seton Hall and automatically marked a W on the schedule for any of the good Big East teams. Because of all that talent.

But with the talent that Gonzalez has acquired for the upcoming campaign comes great responsibility. You see, Bobby, who gets himself into trouble from time to time with his own mouth, brought in Herb "I'm just tired, officer" Pope, who will spend all season trying to exorcise the demons of his checkered past, to use a cliche. Unfortunately for Pope, his name immediately raises eyebrows. That's just the reputation he has. And Gonzalez, especially if his team struggles at all this year, would bear the brunt of the problem if Pope gets in any form of trouble this year.

Which is exactly why Keon Lawrence, who recently registered a DWI while driving in the wrong direction on the Garden State Parkway, has really put Bobby in a bind. Suddenly, Seton Hall has made national news for all the wrong reasons.

It's certainly not fair to Pope to say that something will go wrong this year, but you can't say it's entirely unfounded to be prepared for it. So, the fact that someone other than Pope has gotten in a lot of trouble is not good.

Now, not only does Gonzalez have to do a lot better than he has in first three seasons, he has to smooth over a rough patch to start the season.

As my mother used to say, everyone needs to be on their best behavior now. Bobby, no complaining about the refs or any other verbal implosions that draw the ire of administration officials. Herb, stick to your word about improving your rep. Keon, just ... stay out of any more trouble.

Otherwise, four consecutive seasons of middling finishes in the Big East plus way too many headaches for one program will probably not be good for Bobby's future at Seton Hall. Let's hope one of the most entertaining coaches in hoops can get his team focused on the season and, like I said before, smooth over this rocky start. If he doesn't, I have a hard time seeing Bobby patrolling the sidelines for Seton Hall past 2010.

Where can you get more J. Greer?

Follow me on Twitter. There's plenty of stuff on there that I don't cover in the blog. And it's far more open to conversation with friends of JGWS.

ESPN/USA Today Coaches Poll

There were no surprises this morning when the ESPN/USA Today Coaches Poll came out. The top five looks about right: Kansas, Michigan State, Texas, North Carolina and Kentucky, in that order.

You've got the teams with the most returning talent at 1 and 2; two teams (Texas and UNC) with the combination of uber-talented newcomers and big-time youngsters ready to fill bigger roles; and perhaps the biggest wild card in college basketball this season (Kentucky) rounding out the group. I am a little surprised that Kentucky didn't move to No. 3 like they did in the AP Poll -- I fully expect the media to fawn over the super freshmen that John Calipari trots out in Wildcats blue.

Furthermore, what does the top five say about the Big 12? Texas and Kansas play one epic showdown at Texas later this season. Oklahoma may have a say in the Big 12 title before all's said and done. And Oklahoma State and Missouri, while they probably won't challenge for a conference crown, can certainly make some noise and challenge the Big Three.

Now, last year, it was the Big East that easily took the cake as the best conference. This year, not so much. And being the type that likes titles and grandiose names for inconsequential things, I'd like to name this year's "It" conference right now: the Big Ten. And it's only by a hair, because the Big East is solid (again) from 1 through about 11, the Big 12 has some great teams and the ACC still exists.

Yes, it pains me to say it because the Big Ten plays the worst style of basketball anyone could ever see. But this year's group is pretty damn good, from legitimate national title and Final Four contenders Michigan State and Purdue to the really, really good groups at Michigan, Minnesota, Ohio State and maybe even Illinois. That's six teams already, and Northwestern, Penn State and Wisconsin aren't exactly light years behind the top six. By my count, that's nine solid, competitive schools.

So, what gives the Big Ten the edge over the Big East for me? I just think the overall clout of Michigan State and Purdue outweights the clout of 'Nova and West Virginia. That could change, but starting out this season, I'd say those two teams have a better shot at No. 1 seeds and/or Final Four appearances than anyone in the Big East.

But anyway, the rich get richer. Here's a breakdown of teams in the Top 25 by conference. Oh, and before I list them, just remember: I use the AP Top 25 all year, so this is as much (digital) ink I'll give the ESPN poll this year.

Teams in the Top 25
ACC: 4
Big East: 6
Big Ten: 5
Big 12: 3
Pac 10: 2
SEC: 3

Team of the Decade?

ESPN.com's Jerry Crasnick has a story up today about deciphering the Team of the Decade. He says the 2009 World Series will go a long way toward deciding things. If the Yankees win, he says there's no doubt they are the Team. But then he goes on to talk about the Phillies having a shot if they win.

That's where he gets a little lost.

Look, the Phillies are a great team. If they win this year, they'll have won back-to-back World Series for the first time since the Yanks won three in a row to end the 90s and start 00s. But seriously, before last year's run, the Phillies were a middling team that nobody cared about. They were just one of the teams fighting for the NL East division title like all the other 86-win teams that play in that division.

There, I said it. Don't deny it. It's true.

But let's back up a second and talk about what it takes to be the Team of the Decade. I even thought about this the other night, so I'm glad that Crasnick took it on.

I used the following criteria for my inner discussion: World Series titles, championship series appearances, playoff appearances and overall wins.

Titles. So, whoever wins this World Series ties with the Red Sox, who, in case you forgot, swept the World Series in 2004 and 2007. And, as much as I want this year's World Series to just be canceled, there has to be a winner.

World Series appearances. I'm counting years in which that team won it, and years in which they lost it. Yanks have been there three times. Sox, Phils and Cards twice. No one else more than once. That takes us to the next tiebreaker: Championship series appearances. That silence you hear is from Philadelphia (shocking that they're quiet, I know) because the Phillies' argument for Team of the Decade just ended.

LCS appearances. In college hoops, making the Final Four is enough of an accomplishment that it (almost) doesn't matter how you do there -- as long as you aren't embarrassed (looking at YOU, 2003 Marquette Golden Eagles). I'm not entirely sure that teams feel that way in baseball, but it's a similar feeling. It's a sign of accomplishment.

In the 00s, the Yankees made five league championship series. That's the most of anyone. That's the tiebreaker for the Yanks if they win the '09 World Series and tie up the BoSox. The Red Sox have made four league championship series, and split two of them with the Yankees.

The only other team that has a shot at winning this tiebreaker would be the Cardinals, the team I thought would be in the World Series this year representing the National League. St. Louis made four NLCS trips this decade. If they won another World Series this decade, they'd be right there with the Red Sox and Yankees (assuming the Yankees win in 2009).

Playoff appearances. We'll continue the tiebreaking even though we know the answers. The Yanks have made every postseason except for one from 2000 to 2009. The Cardinals have made seven. The Red Sox, Braves and Angels have made six appearances. The Twins and Athletics finish the decade with five. The Phillies have made three postseasons since 2000.

Overall wins. Mr. Crasnick gives us the win totals for 2000-2009. Yanks have the most; BoSox second; Cards third.

The bottom line here is simple: The Phillies are a great team this year. They were last year, too. But they don't deserve Team of the Decade status. They've had some above average teams that barely made the playoffs (2007) and a lot of average teams that didn't. Crasnick brings up a fine point -- the Phils have won 80 games more times in the 2000-2009 span than any other NL team. But still, as Crasnick writes, the Phils are 11th in baseball in overall wins since 2000.

Look, it's safe to say that they are the premier powerhouse in the NL now. That's fine. If the Phillies win back-to-back World Series, they enter the discussion for Team of the Decade. But even still, once you step back from the consecutive titles and think about it, they just don't stack up over the whole decade.

Gibbs Not the Answer in D.C.

Seriously, who started these rumors? Rumors that Joe Gibbs is coming back to the Redskins, either as a coach or general manager.

Who asks these questions?

When I used to cover Pitt sports, I hated -- hated -- when some radio or TV guy would ask, in the middle of a post-game press conference, some question that had nothing to do with the event they were covering.

Seems like this happened in Martinsville.

But anyway, and more to the point, why the heck do people always think things like this would be a good idea? Joe Gibbs? Really? Dude's like 7,000. I hate the notion that "so-and-so was great, let's bring him back and he'll just repeat his success."

Sure, Gibbs coached the Skins to a 31-36 record over his four-year return from retirement. Sure, they made the playoffs twice. But that team never looked like a Super Bowl team. He would need a team ready to win now, not a group that he can mentor. And that's what the Redskins need to do -- build from the bottom up.

Hire a young coach. Not a relic. Bring in some fresh faces and a new mindset. A return to the early 90s won't do anything to save your franchise. Get serious.

The L.A. Jaguars?

So, Ahnold signed a bill today that will allow construction on a new football stadium in Los Angeles pick up momentum. The Los Angeles Times reports that the stadium will seat 75,000 and cost a cool $800 million. Ahnold's John Hancock on legislation that exempts the stadium from California's environmental laws is all that the construction company needed to get things moving.

Which brings us to our next question: Who's going to play there?

You'll notice the headline of this post is "The L.A. Jaguars?" and the photo is just a giant Jaguars logo. That's because the Jags are one of the seven teams mentioned in the Associated Press article discussing the bill's signing. The other teams listed? Buffalo, Minnesota, St. Louis, San Diego, Oakland and San Francisco.

Now, the most important part of this process isn't which teams are bad and which teams are good, although competitiveness does (obviously) play a major role in how well a team does financially. But let's just toss Minnesota, San Fran, Oakland and San Diego out right away. Why would any of those franchises do that?

There's this line in the AP article:

The firm has said the teams are in stadiums that are either too small or can't be updated with luxury box seats or other revenue sources an NFL club needs to thrive.

But I'm not buying the Vikes leaving MPLS. No way. The Twin Cities love their sports too much to let that happen. The three California franchises are so entrenched in their identities that I can't see them moving to L.A. Plus, the Raiders have already done it 17 times. Why would they want to do it again?

I think we'd see the host cities of those teams build or renovate stadiums before we'd see those teams move, especially in Minnesota, San Diego and San Francisco.

That leaves us with the soon-to-be-coachless Bills, the worst-team-possibly-ever Rams and the no-one-who-lives-in-Jacksonville-even-knows-they-are-in-Jacksonville Jaguars.

But again, we aren't going by records. If we did, the Lions would be in San Antonio by now.

Look, people in Buffalo love the Bills, good or bad, and show up at games. But the Bills are barely hanging on in Buffalo. I spoke to a sports media member in Buffalo two years ago and he said he'd be shocked if the team was still there in 10 years. Ralph Wilson's 91, and who knows what the mindset of the Bills' next owner will be. And that decision could come sooner rather than later.

The Rams are still new to St. Louis, but a bigger factor in this is that they are up for sale, at a cool cost of more than $900 million. If a deep-pocketed owner comes along and buys the team, who knows if they'll want the team ... and a new city.

And then we have the Jags. They are always the first team mentioned when people talk about NFL franchises moving. And although I realize it's not the first or last place you should go for information, the Jaguars' Wikipedia page isn't too promising. Low ticket prices, lower fan interest, blackouts in the region and slow business growth in and around Jacksonville all have major parts in possibly undoing the Jags as a Jacksonville-based franchise.

So, that's why the Jags seem most likely to move Los Angeles. The Bills will end up being the Toronto Bills soon. The Rams ... well, who knows what will happen to them. We'll find out, I guess.

Just don't expect the Jags to be a smash hit in Los Angeles, either. Seems like teams have trouble sticking around ...

The 2009-2010 Big Least

After an epic 2008-2009 season that saw UConn, Louisville and Pitt earn No. 1 seeds in the NCAA tournament and UConn and Villanova make the Final Four, the Big East may take a step back this basketball season. Not that a step back by the Big East is enough to make it a non-factor in college hoops this year, but it is enough to allow the Big 12 and possibly the Big 10 to step into the spotlight as the best two conferences this year.

Last October, it was hard to figure out a better group of teams than North Carolina, Pitt, Louisville and UConn. Sure, teams like Michigan State, Texas, Oklahoma and Duke looked tough, but it was obvious which teams were above the rest of the pack. The season played out as expected, with the four of the preseason top five getting No. 1 seeds and three of the preseason top six making the Final Four.

It was the same in the Big East conference standings, where everyone knew the top three, and the rest had to fight for scraps. But I'm not quite sure that'll happen this year. With only paper versions of teams formed so far, it's clear who the teams with the most potential are: UConn, Villanova, West Virginia and Georgetown. The "rest of the pack," as if these teams aren't heavyweights of their own, includes Syracuse, Louisville, Pitt and Notre Dame. And four teams have a wild-card look to them: Cincinnati, Seton Hall, Providence and Marquette.

But still, nothing is set in stone like it was last year.

First of all, I don't see a top seed out of that group. Not because UConn, Nova or even West Virginia aren't good enough to play their way into a No. 1, but because the pecking order ahead of those three is pretty significant. There's no doubt in my mind that Kansas and Michigan State can be penciled in now for a No. 1 seed. Kentucky, North Carolina, Purdue and Texas will battle it out for the other two slots.

We're essentially left hoping that a weakened ACC bloodies UNC, Kentucky isn't all its cracked up to be, Purdue struggles with injuries again and Texas's young talent doesn't pan out. But all of those things are less likely to happen than (a) UConn not quite finding its groove with Jeff Adrien, AJ Price and Hasheem Thabeet out of the picture, (b) Villanova relying too much on young big men to pick up the slack left by Dante Cunningham and (c) West Virginia not having enough help for its stars to eclipse any of the aforementioned teams.

Of course, on the flip side, it seems like Stanley Robinson, Jerome Dyson and Kemba Walker are primed to break out of the shadows of UConn's Big Three. Villanova is extremely high on Mouphtaou Yarou and Jay Wright has more quality guards and wing players than ever. West Virginia's duo of Da'Sean Butler and Devin Ebanks are top-tier guys, and if a healthy and non-fighting-cops Joe Mazzulla returns to form, he could be one of the top guards in the conference.

With all of this said, let's break down the whole conference, shall we? Even if these teams aren't significant members of the top five, there are still a few that can really do some damage in March.

I've listed the teams in order of how I think they'll finish ...

1. Villanova -- I'm willing to buy into the Villanova staff's love of Yarou enough to say the Wildcats will be the best team in the league this year. Scottie Reynolds has ball-handling and distributing talent around him so he can revert to what he really is -- an undersized 2. This team will have some serious mojo after its Final Four run, and with a roster that's about 37 deep, Jay Wright's team is the one to beat in the Big East.

2. UConn -- I've always thought Stanley Robinson can be a big star. Not just in college hoops, but in the pros, too. Dude's got great size and athleticism for a 3, and at 6-9, he is a matchup problem every time he's on the court. I'd like to see Kemba Walker learn how to use his speed and explosiveness a little better this season. If he can harness his boltiness like Ty Lawson did for UNC, Walker can be one of the best lead guards in the game.

3. West Virginia -- Like I said above, if Mazzulla returns to form, WVU is gonna be tough to beat. But I don't like the roster much after the first three I mentioned.

4. Louisville -- I will probably catch some heat for this but I have this unshakeable feeling that Rick Pitino and his team, despite all the distractions, can still be counted on for 12 conference wins and a fourth-place finish. I think Peyton Siva will be a star. And I like that Siva gets to work with the Edgar Sosa, Jerry Smith and Preston Knowles backcourt. That's a lot of experience. And above all else, Louisville's style will always be a handful for teams of comparable or lesser talent, and everyone below the Cards on this list fits into those two categories.

5. Georgetown -- I've said it for a few years now: Georgetown's playing style prohibits its extraordinarily talented lineup from flourishing. I wish JT3 would open up his offense and run. I'm just not sold on the Hoyas yet. I need to see them do everything that they didn't do last year (post-UConn of course) before I put 'em any higher.

6. Syracuse -- This team is quietly talented enough to sneak into the top four of the conference. Andy Rautins might be the best shooter in the league. We'll see who emerges as a leader, but I like the talent that Jim Boeheim has put together.

7. Pitt -- I don't really think Pitt will be very good this year. Not 30-5 good. Not No. 1-in-the-country good. But you knew that already. This team doesn't have the toughest makeup. Who knows what they'll get from Dante Taylor up front. The reports I read from Pittsburgh's summer league implied that he needed a lot of work despite a ton of raw talent. Jermaine Dixon isn't a go-to guy on offense and he's not a leader, but they're asking him to be both. Gilbert Brown is probably the most frustrating 6-foot-6 wing in hoops, and he won't even play until January. Those are the three best players on Pitt's roster. Nonetheless, I do love Ashton Gibbs and his development. There are a few blue-collar, younger guys who can contribute enough to keep the Panthers tournament-worthy, but nothing more than that.

8. Notre Dame -- It's hard to pick the Irish any higher than this after their 2008-2009 debacle. Looking at the preseason top 25 from last year, where ND was a consensus No. 9, it's amazing how colossally this team sucked. They couldn't defend a broom dribbling a basketball. But the positive from last season is that it's over, and Luke Harangody is back for one more season with Mike Brey and friends. Harangody is always a triple-double threat (you know, double digits in points, rebounds and complaints to the refs). Can Tory Jackson be the leader Brey needs him to be? Who will be the third cog in the offense -- Tyrone Nash maybe?

9. Cincinnati -- This is a team that could surpass both Pitt and Notre Dame and end up in the NCAAs. There's enough talent to finally help Deonta Vaughn, who seems like he's been in the Big East forever. We'll see how the Lance Stephenson Project works out. If Lance lives up to the on-the-court hype and avoids the off-the-court issues, he could be a major stud, but you knew that already.

10. Providence -- I'd like to see the Friars do a few things this year that they didn't do last year. You know, like not give up 80 points a game and absolutely fall apart at critical points. Seriously, how many times did the following happen last year: Opponent scores six unanswered points, PC's guards freak out and either (a) hurl up a 40-footer or (b) turn the ball over on 10 consecutive possessions. Poof, PC's down 10 and has no shot at coming back. I want to see them NOT do that before I put them any higher.

11. Seton Hall -- Not buying the hype. It's Seton Hall.

12. Marquette -- Buzz Williams coaching "his guys" sounds a lot like Buzz Williams coaching his team to a 12th-place finish. Lazar Heyward or no Lazar Heyward.

13. St. John's

14. Rutgers

15. South Florida

16. DePaul

Ready for October?

I hope you're ready for this, the best month of the year that isn't March. What a thrilling start to what should be a great postseason. The Twins never-say-die attitude got them this far, and now they're the eighth team in a stacked playoff that will decide your 2009 World Series champ.

It wouldn't be J. Greer Sports if we didn't dish out some predictions, now would it? But I'll let you in on my thought process for these prognostications: I'll give what my brain (and logic) tells me, and I'll give you what I have in my gut. Sometimes those two will match, but there are two series that don't match those feelings up. Let's get to 'em.

Red Sox vs. Angels

My head and gut both tell me that the Sox win this. I'm sure that doesn't surprise anyone. I just don't think the Angels can get out of their own way in the playoffs these days. And I don't think it's that crazy to say Jon Lester or Josh Beckett steal a win in Anaheim and the Sox protect their house at Fenway. I'm taking the Sox in four.

Yankees vs. Twins

On paper, the Twins have no shot at winning this series. They could win one game, but logic just says no shot in hell for Minnesota. They arrived in New York at 3 a.m. this morning to play a 6 p.m. game agains the Yanks. The Yankees are a regular murderer's row of hitters -- although we'll see what A-Rod has in store for this postseason -- and C.C. Sabathia seems primed to shake his past postseason demons. But the difference is that A-Rod isn't going to be relied on to deliver all of the punishing blows. Mark Teixeira is about as good as it gets, and nobody is more clutch in the postseason than Derek Jeter. My head tells me the Yanks win in four.

But there's this feeling in my gut that I can't shake, and maybe it's because I was rooting for the Twins yesterday (and I've been rooting against the Yankees since I came out of the womb). A lot of that has to do with some stats I've seen since last night (typical ESPN stat, by the way): Of the four teams who have come from behind to win in the ninth inning or later in one-game playoffs, all four reached the World Series. The most recent, of course, being the Rockies in 2007. There's just something about a hot team like this that makes you hesitate, especially when it's billed as David vs. Goliath. So my gut says Twins in four (gotta win it at the Dome).

Phillies vs. Rockies

Cliff Lee hasn't been very good recently (save for back-t0-back starts against the Nats and the Braves in mid-September). And he's never thrown in the postseason. Doesn't seem like Cole Hamels is as good as we thought -- or maybe he just had an off-year (by the standards we all set for him). Brad Lidge is the most terrifying closer in baseball this year (he's 2009's Joe Borowski). So, that has to make you nervous. But -- and that's a big but -- the Phils have the experience of winning it all and a great lineup. We'll see if that's enough to overcome what I suspect will be a shaky postseason pitching staff. My head tells me the Phils in five.

And my gut tells me Rockies in four.

Cardinals vs. Dodgers

The Cardinals have an incredible one-two punch in Chris Carpenter and Adam Wainwright. I read a stat somewhere that said the Cardinals, as a team, have hit .233 against lefties this year. Still, I'd like to see any team's batting average against Carpenter-Wainwright. Therefore, my head -- and gut -- give the Dodgers about a 5 percent chance of winning this series. I'll take the Cards in four.

Whining Starts at the Top, I Guess

As if Ray Lewis blaming his team's inability to win and his teammate's inability to catch a pass on the officials was bad enough, John Harbaugh went one step further. The Ravens coach is planning to submit video of the Patriots-Ravens game, complete with complaints about "preferential treatment" of Tom Brady and tear stains on the paperwork.

Really? Shouldn't the Ravens be focusing on their next game? It's already Tuesday. The game ended more than 48 hours ago. I hope that Harbaugh spent more of that time teaching Mark Clayton how to catch a football and the Ravens' secondary how to stop a pass than he did looking for Brady getting preferential treatment.

But really, the rules have been like this for a few years now, ever since Kimo von Oelhoffen jumped on Carson Palmer's leg in the 2005 playoffs. The rules became stricter when Bernard Pollard did the same thing to Brady last year. We know how the whole thing unfolded. So why are the Ravens making an issue of it now?

Seems like sour grapes to me. Every other team in the NFL could complain about this, too. Surely they'll express them at future league meetings. In the meantime, play football, Baltimore.

Twins-Tigers: Who Ya Got?

ESPN is reporting this morning that Brett Favre has saved humanity with a good performance in Week 4 and the entire network will now spend the rest of the week showering Brett with superlatives and breaking down his every move, from screen passes to breathing. There's no truth to the rumor that he will go to Copenhagen and try to get the Olympics for Minneapolis/St. Paul.

Let's talk about today's big news: The Twins and the Tigers will play one game to decide who goes to the playoffs and who doesn't. Talk about crunch time. That Dome will be rocking. I've already been asked who I'm taking in this game, so let's break it down.

The Twins' bats are smoking hot. Jason Kubel, Michael Cuddyer and Joe Mauer have 44 homers since the All-Star break. Denard Span, Matt Tolbert and Delmon Young are hitting .300 or better since then. So, it's going to be tough for Rick Porcello to make bats miss tonight, and that means he'll need some nice bounces and a good defense behind him. With that Dome-field advantage, I'm not sure he'll get that.

Can Miguel Cabrera get it together? Dude was drunk -- three times over the legal limit -- the night before the Tigers' biggest game of the season. He got home at 5 a.m. and promptly fought his wife, roughing her up in the process. So that begs the question, where's Cabrera's head going into tonight's game? Tonight has become the biggest game of the season for the Tigers, replacing their matchup against the White Sox on Sunday. And they're going to desperately need his bat and improved defense at first if they want a shot at winning.

Which young pitcher will have more nerves? The Twins' Scott Baker, a 27-year-old righty, has become the de facto ace for Minnesota (sorry, Carl Pavano). If he can get off to a quick start and pitch with a lead, he'll be more aggressive in the strike zone with the Dome crowd giving him a boost.

Rick Porcello is about as good as a rookie pitcher can get. The 20-year-old has the weight of the world on his shoulders, but this game may not be one he can win. I don't see his team's offense doing much, and there has to be a long ball or two from the Twins' big boppers.

Plus, who doesn't love Joe Nathan closing it out?

I'm taking the Twins tonight, and I don't think it'll require any late-inning heroics.

NFL Reactions

Seriously, all I hear is "Wah, wah, wah," Ray Lewis. The loudest player in football needs a tissue for his latest issue: The officials lost the game, not us. Typical Ravens whining. The new rules for quarterbacks are in place, so you have to play by them. You should've complained or commented when the rules were changed, Ray. But you were probably busy fighting people at clubs.

So, here's some advice, Ray: Don't give up 27 points next time. Just sayin'.

OK, let's run down all the games from Sunday ...

... The Lions keep putting up a fight each week. Not saying they are making the playoffs or anything, but they are definitely better than the Rams, Browns, Redskins, Bucs, Chiefs, Raiders and maybe even the Panthers. The Bears are enjoying the early returns on Jay Cutler, who after a disastrous first-week performance has made quite the impression on his new team. But really, I don't need to hear any more "John-Elways-esque" comments when watching the highlight of him diving into the end zone.

... Can't the Browns catch one break, God? Please? I'm not a Browns fan by any stretch, but watching Cleveland play and inevitably lose is like watching the 1,876,237,867 times that the antelope doesn't escape the lions chasing it. You know the poor thing is gonna get caught and devoured, but you hold out hope that the Discovery Channel cameras will catch on tape the one time the antelope escapes. And then six lions pull down the antelope from every direction, disappear below the tall grass and reappear minutes later with blood all over their faces. But hey, at least that antelope doesn't have to watch Derek Anderson.

... Can we give up the Seahawks-as-NFC-West champs babble now? The Colts are a great team, yes. They look like one of the top five teams in football so far. But they just destroyed Seattle. Don't let 34-17 score fool you. It was way worse.

... The Giants are major contenders for the NFC title this year. No question about it. But people are freaking out about Eli Manning's foot. Really? Eli's foot? The New York Daily News went so far as to say Eli's is the most famous foot in the tri-state area. Ask Brandon Jacobs what he thinks about that. Or Mark Teixeira. Or Derek Jeter. Or C.C. Sabathia. I can think of about five other guys in the New York City area who are more important than Eli Manning. Sure, he's good and all, but not that good. You really think a heel injury that keeps him out two games and forces David Carr to hand the ball off to Jacobs and Ahmad Bradshaw about 40 times is that problematic? The Giants would be fine without Eli for a few games. So relax.

... God, I am sitting here scrolling through the games and posting reactions and, lo and behold, I reach the Redskins-Bucs game.

... The Titans are in serious trouble. Winless in their first four with Indy and New England on deck. Rough start. And I don't see them as anything but 0-6 before their bye week. Meanwhile, the Jaguars, a team that really struck me as terrible after Week 1, is 2-2 and breathing better. And with Seattle and St. Louis on deck, the Jags could be 4-2 going into their bye week.

... Oakland is just ... just awful. JaMarcus Russell is 43 of 108 so far this year. That's 39.8 percent.

... We already talked about the "We Never Actually Lose" Ravens. So let's talk about the Patriots. After losing to New York in Week 2, it was time to write the obituary for the dynasty. Not so fast. A solid, grind-it-out win against Atlanta and a great win against a very good Ravens team has New England at 3-1 and feeling confident. The passing game looked better, but it was the defense that played extremely well in this one. The secondary has meshed well with its new pieces.

... The Saints are the best team in the NFL right now. Yeah, I said it. I have never thought the Jets were as good as everyone talked them up to be. Sure, they'll be good this year, but not talk-smack-every-week good like they were acting. And don't think for one second that New Orleans is a pass-heavy, no-run-game, no-defense team. This is a well-rounded Saints club that is the cream of the crop in the NFC.

... The Bills and Dolphins played this weekend.

... Are the Broncos really that good or are the Cowboys just a mediocre 9-7 team with a great PR crew? (Think of the Cowboys as the Mitt Romney of football.) I think it's a little bit of Broncos being good and a little bit of the Cowboys being average. Denver gets its first real test next week when the Patriots come to the Mile High City. With their defense looking as good as any, the Broncos have a great opportunity to warn the rest of the AFC next week.

... The 49ers' defense single-handedly crushed my buddy Ken's fantasy team this week. I guess that's what happens when you face Kyle Boller and the Second Team to Go 0-16 in Two Seasons.

... Was there any doubt in anyone's mind that Jeff Reed would ice the games for the Steelers last night? Dude's got the entire city thinking the world is about to collapse when he steps onto the field and calmly drills the game-sealing kick. You had to know that was coming. There was no way the Steelers were losing that game, at home, on the brink of falling to 1-3. No chance. And they held on. And I won $5, too.

NFL Power Rankings (worst to first)

32. St. Louis
31. Tampa Bay
30. Kansas City
29. Cleveland
28. Oakland
27. Washington
26. Detroit
25. Carolina
24. Buffalo
23. Miami
22. Tennessee
21. Seattle
20. Houston
19. Arizona
18. Dallas
17. Jacksonville
16. Cincinnati
15. San Diego
14. Atlanta
13. Pittsburgh
12. Chicago
11. Green Bay
10. San Francisco
9. Philadelphia
8. Denver
7. New York Jets
6. Baltimore
5. New England
4. Minnesota
3. Indianapolis
2. New York Giants
1. New Orleans

J. Greer Is Back!

This comeback is bigger than Ma$e's. Well, maybe not. But still, I figured it's been long enough. The people are hungry, and I'm the man with the goods. So instead of all the usual welcome backs and catching up, let's just do what we do best: BS.

A few thoughts about the world as we know it right now ...

... First of all -- with the full realization that this will upset a LOT of my readers -- there is NO way, no chance, that the Phillies repeat. It's too difficult. And you need to have a bullpen situation figured out before you get to the playoffs.

... I can't wait for Where the Wild Things Are. And while I haven't seen Cloudy With a Chance of Meatballs, I'd like to. Can't say the same for Surrogates, though. God, Bruce Willis is just weird. Has anyone else noticed how hard he tries to be funny these days? It just falls flat. And this movie looks like a typical action film with a twist -- Bruce Willis in a weird-ass wig.

... I've said it before and I'll say it again: George Lopez is not funny. He will never be funny. So, why has TBS given him a late-night program? And why is TBS using Lopez as its latest version of "Extremely Irritating C-List Celebrity to Promote the Baseball Playoffs"?

... Doesn't get much more embarrassing than Hull City's 6-1 loss to Liverpool and Burnley's 5-0 abomination against the Spurs. Looks like the usual suspects will roam the top of the standings in the Premiership this year. No surprise there.

... I've had a debate with about five different people about this, but I think Joe Mauer is worth as much as Manny Ramirez and A-Rod. His contract runs out after 2010, and like Albert Pujols, Mauer's next contract has to be a huge one. I've read that the Twins like a seven-year, $120 million deal. I don't think that's enough. And it amazes me that Pujols doesn't make $30 million a year. He will soon. Who pays these guys? I don't know, but both are incredibly dedicated to their current clubs. And because they both seem to be nice guys to boot, they might take a discount to keep playing in Minnesota and St. Louis.

... It's October 1, and that means college hoops season is closer than you think. My buddy Jake and I were floating around No. 1 seed predictions today. I'm going with Michigan State, Kansas, North Carolina and Texas. Villanova will be the first 2 seed.

... Sure, the Dodgers are the best team in the National League, but in a league with teams that boast one-two punches like Carpenter-Wainwright and Lee-Hamels, the potpourri of question marks that forms LA's starting rotation is enough to have me worried.

... The Yankees look great as the season ends. But do they have the starters to match the lineup? That's the biggest question.

... Notice the early theme here? Pitching wins titles. Just ask the Phillies how important it was for Brad Lidge to dominate at the back end of the bullpen and Joe Blanton providing a fourth-starter spark.

... I'm reading Our Boys: A Perfect Season on the Plains With the Smith Center Redmen by Joe Drape. I highly recommend it. Next up: Game Six by Mark Frost. Yup, you guessed it: It's about Game Six of the 1975 World Series.

... OK, OK, we can't avoid football for so long. Here are some 3-0 teams that won't make the playoffs: Denver and the Jets. Yeah, I said it.

... Here are teams with losing records that WILL make the playoffs: Pittsburgh and Arizona. Yup, the Super Bowlers from earlier this year. Not really taking much of a risk here.

... Drew Brees is the best fantasy player this year, and I'm not even sure he's the best QB in football.

... Joe Flacco's early-season success is nice, but it won't last. Color me skeptical.

... Minneapolis/St. Paul is a great part of the country. Spent a week there in September and already want to go back.

... I've been on a big SI.com kick lately, and this article is just one reason why. They have lots of staff and lots of good stuff on that site. Not anything new to many sports fans, but I'm just sayin'.

... Uh, delete everything off a phone before you get rid of it. Just an idea.

... Seems like Jermain Defoe is the better option next to Wayne Rooney with England than Emile Heskey.

... Last but not least, follow me on Twitter.

J. Greer Has Moved

In case you were wondering, J. Greer has moved to MVN.com.

If you go to mvn.com/profile/jeffgreer, the blog is still up and running. Hope to see you there, and leave lots of comments!

Smizik: Is Pitt Tall Enough?

Recently retired Pittsburgh Post-Gazette columnist Bob Smizik has a nice blog on the P-G's Web site, and one of the latest posts tackles a question many have asked this season: Is Pitt tall enough to make a Final Four run?

The answer, at first glance, is yes -- the amount of height in college hoops is exaggerated: Many teams have frontcourts that look like Pitt's -- 6-6, 6-7 and 6-8.

But the problem is, a lot of teams have guys to come off the bench and earn minutes in the paint. With Gary McGhee moving farther down the bench, as Smizik points out, Pitt doesn't have that body off the bench. And the bigger problem is that none of the wings that coach Jamie Dixon uses are great rebounders, with the exception of Nasir Robinson.

Pitt needs its other lengthy wings to get into the action, namely Gil Brown, Jermaine Dixon and Ashton Gibbs.

Heads Are Rolling, and It's Not the Economy

Dennis Felton should've been fired last year, but Georgia made a miraculous run into the NCAA Tournament after winning the ACC tourney. He's one of two big-name coaches that are out this year; Mark Gottfried was the other.

The SEC is tanking, so it shouldn't surprise people that the first two casualties of the 08-09 season came from that league.

There will probably be more.

But now comes the best part of all of this: Speculating on who will replace the removed coaches.

Apparently Minnesota's Tubby Smith is a hot topic for Alabama. VCU's Anthony Grant isn't really in the running. But Alabama has some cash and a willingness to make a splash. Andy Katz gives us some good insight, too.

I can't really find much speculation on Felton's replacement because that firing was so recent, but don't expect Jim Harrick to walk through that door ...

Another coach who is practically cloaking the sky with the smoke coming off his hot seat is Maryland's Gary Williams. Not only is his team struggling, he's also involved in a tit-for-tat with some school officials. Not good, despite what he says.

And we can fully expect the Arizona job hunt to make the biggest news. I saw in a chat on ESPN.com that Michigan State's Tom Izzo is suddenly the frontrunner. I don't know what to make of that, but we'll have to wait and see, won't we?

Gamble with Keno Starting to Pay Off

Expectations in Rhode Island were high for Providence when the season started. I openly felt that the Friars would sneak up on some people and possibly even break into the top eight of the Big East. They returned four starters and a fifth, Sharaud Curry, who came back from a season-ending injury.

I said Curry would lead an explosive offense capable of hanging 100 on anyone. I said if PC could just defend even a little bit, the Friars wouldn't tank in Big East play like they had in years past and they might even make an NCAA Tournament run.

Outside of my friends who double as rabid Friars fans, no one believed me.

"The league is too tough," they'd say. "There are too many established powers to break in like that."

Well, Georgetown and Notre Dame are 3-5 in the conference, and Syracuse is riding a three-game losing streak, so there are open spots for hot teams.

Enter Providence, which just upended Syracuse, 100-94, last night.

The Friars are 6-2 in the Big East and 14-6 overall, with losses to Northeastern, Baylor, Saint Mary's, BC, Georgetown and Marquette. And each day that goes by, PC's home loss to CAA-leading Northeastern looks better. (No one will argue that it's OK that PC lost that game, but at least Northeastern isn't some mid-level CAA team.)

Now, with an RPI of 66, PC needs to get a few more marquee wins -- Syracuse is the only victory against an RPI Top 50 team, and against the RPI Top 100, PC is just 5-6. But the Friars have plenty more chances, with a ridiculous, yet typical, Big East sked coming up:

-- at UConn, a team waiting in the wings to be No. 1 in the country after Duke's loss last night, on Saturday

-- Villanova, the team that beat No. 3 Pitt last night, on Feb. 4

-- at West Virginia on Feb. 7

-- Two very winnable games at South Florida and at the Dunk against Rutgers

-- at Louisville on Feb. 18

-- Notre Dame on Feb. 21 -- this game will be in 200s with the defense these teams play

-- Pitt on Feb. 24

-- at Rutgers March 1

-- at Villanova on March 5

That's a tough sked. If you forced me to pick the games, I'd take PC over USF, Rutgers twice and Notre Dame, with the home contest against 'Nova being a toss-up, while the rest will be extremely tough to win. But a 10-8 or 11-7 Big East record has to be good enough to get the Friars into the NCAA Tournament, and a win at the conference tourney in the Big Apple would only help.

Lots of offense
The Friars have the offensive firepower to stay with anyone. They dropped 100 on No. 15 Syracuse and 98 on Seton Hall. We know Geoff McDermott is the best passing forward in the league. We know coach Keno Davis's teams will fill it up anywhere, anytime. And we know that if Sharaud Curry can cut down on turnovers and keep getting healthier, PC will have an elite scoring point man.

What you don't know is that Davis has two primetime perimeter players who don't get enough attention: two 6-5 wing players -- Weyinmi Efejuku and Marshon Brooks.

Efejuku has consistenly been a scorer for PC since he arrived on campus. He's a slasher who possesses a similar offensive game to Marquette's Wesley Matthews, another star 6-5 wing. Efejuku has been more consistent this year after clashing with former coach Tim Welsh over the past three years, and that has made a huge difference in PC's offensive attack.

Efejuku has to be more active on the defensive end -- as do all the Friars -- but right now, Efejuku, whether he's facing up or with his back to the tin, is a capable scorer who can torch anyone.

Brooks has emerged as PC's second scorer, even if he only plays a little more than 20 minutes off the bench. I'm pretty sure I've seen Brooks take 3s from Narragansett Bay, but his 21 points against Marquette, 30 against Sacred Heart and 17 against Syracuse last night show that he can stuff a stat sheet.

With Efejuku and Brooks leading the way, PC has a bevy of offensive threats -- Jeff Xavier is dangerous from anywhere on the floor, Curry is lightning quick with a fast release, McDermott can bang underneath and handle point-forward responsibilities, Jonathan Kale and Randall Hanke are serviceable in the paint, and once Brian McKenzie finds his J, he can be a force on the perimeter.

That's a lot of talent for a team no one is talking about.

The problem is, they aren't the most efficient offense, even with all that offensive talent. If you read Ken Pomeroy's scouting report on PC, it's not too promising. None of the four biggest areas of the game are very efficient for the Friars, but they keep winning.

So, PC has to do two things from here on out: Keep winning games that, in theory, it shouldn't be winning and improve its efficiency ratings on both ends of the floor. That means cutting down on turnovers, making (and attempting) more foul shots and getting more stops.

The Big East is a grind-it-out, beat-you-up league where most teams rely on rebounding and defense. Providence is bucking that trend. How long will that last? Who knows, that's why they play the games. But right now, Davis and his Friars have something going, and a few teams are suddenly trying to catch a Providence team no one thought would be rising to the top of the league standings, except the true believers.

Projecting the Field

I won't do seeds until next month, but we can at least look at who is a lock, who should be in and who is on the bubble. We'll go conference by conference.

It's clear right now that six or seven teams have legitimate shots at No. 1 seeds. If Louisville keeps playing the way it's playing, it might have an outside shot at the last top seed, but those losses to UNLV and Western Kentucky really hurt. But for now, we'll include them in the conversation.

Potential 1 seeds: Duke, UConn, Pitt, North Carolina, Wake Forest, Oklahoma, Louisville

You've probably read this elsewhere, but Oklahoma has the best shot at staying up here and not moving. The Sooners' Big 12 schedule is navigable the rest of the way. With 10 league games left, Oklahoma has three tough road games and two difficult home games. The Sooners go to Baylor, Texas and Missouri, and host Kansas and Oklahoma State. Even if Oklahoma loses one or two of those games, I don't see how it would slip out of top-seed status.

The reason behind Oklahoma's sturdy top-seed status right now is that the rest of the teams in contention could easily lose three, four or five more games. That's just how tough the ACC and Big East are this year. You've heard the refrain so many times that I don't have to repeat any more about these two leagues.

So, no one else is safe. But here are the resumes, from best to worst, for a No. 1 seed. Remember, there are four to give out ...

1. Duke: 18-1. RPI: 1; Strength of Schedule: 26; nonconference SOS: 67. Wins against RPI Top 50: at Purdue, Xavier, Davidson, Georgetown. Next big game: tonight, at Wake Forest.

2. Pitt: 18-1. RPI: 3; SOS: 19; nonconference SOS: 177. Wins against RPI Top 50: at Georgetown, Syracuse, at West Virginia. Next big game: tonight, at Villanova.

3. UConn: 18-1. RPI: 6; SOS: 40; nonconference SOS: 201. Wins against RPI Top 50: Miami (Fla.), Wisconsin, at Gonzaga, at West Virginia, Villanova, at Notre Dame. Next big game: Saturday, at Providence.

4. Oklahoma: 20-1. RPI: 12; SOS: 43; nonconference SOS: 141. Wins against RPI Top 50: Davidson, UAB, Purdue, Southern Cal, Utah, at Kansas State, Texas, Baylor, at Oklahoma State.

5. Wake Forest: 16-1. RPI: 11; SOS: 137; nonconference SOS: 282. Wins against RPI Top 50: Baylor, at BYU, North Carolina, Clemson. Next big game: tonight, vs. Duke.

6. North Carolina: 17-2. RPI: 2; SOS: 31; nonconference SOS: 128. Wins against RPI Top 50: Kentucky, Notre Dame, at Michigan State, Miami (Fla.), Clemson. Next big game: tonight, at Florida State.

7. Louisville: 15-3. RPI: 7; SOS: 22; nonconference SOS: 160. Wins against RPI Top 50: UAB, Kentucky, at Villanova, Notre Dame, Pitt, at Syracuse. Next big game: Saturday, vs. West Virginia.

So, right now, I'd say the top seeds would be Duke, Pitt, UConn and Oklahoma. And Wake Forest, UNC and Louisville would be some very good No. 2 seeds.

Anyway, who's in and who's out ... Number of bids is in parentheses. If a league only has one team listed, that's the auto bid.

America East (1): Vermont

Atlantic 10 (1): Xavier, Dayton

ACC (6): Duke, Wake Forest, North Carolina, Clemson, Florida State, Boston College

Work to do: Virginia Tech. Bad out-of-conference losses will continue to just kill the Hokies. If they want to get into the Tournament, they need to keep beating the top dogs in the conference.

Miami. The Canes are too inconsistent right now to go either way, but four games in a row against Wake, Duke, UNC, FSU and BC are all good chances to get a marquee win. The problem is, Miami could easily go 1-4 or 0-5 in that stretch, meaning it would be stuck with 7 or 8 conference losses with three league games left.

Atlantic Sun (1): Jacksonville

Big 12 (5): Oklahoma, Kansas, Texas, Baylor, Missouri

Work to do: Oklahoma State. The Cowboys don't have any bad losses -- all six of them came against RPI Top 50 schools. But they are 2-3 in the league, and they'll need to be 9-7 to get in, just because the Big 12 isn't having it's best year. And also because OK State doesn't have one win against the RPI Top 50. Not one. But Kansas, Texas, Baylor and Kansas State are all still on the sked.

Big East (9): Marquette, Louisville, Pitt, UConn, Syracuse, Georgetown, Villanova, West Virginia, Notre Dame (but still a lot of work to do -- see below)

Work to do: Notre Dame. I've always maintained that the Irish were overrated coming into the season. They don't defend well enough to be an elite team, and they don't get results on the road. Now, they're 3-5 in the league and just 12-7 overall, riding a four-game losing streak. But it's the Big East, and for every lost opportunity, there's a new one right around the corner. You know, like playing at Pitt this Saturday. Plus, ND can get a decent win at UCLA a week from Saturday.

Providence. You know I love the Friars. That's my hometown team. But they still couldn't defend a CYO team. The only bad loss is against Northeastern, but PC has recovered nicely, munching on some cake through the beginning of conference play. The Friars need a big win or two, and Syracuse, UConn, Villanova, West Virginia, Louisville and Pitt are all still on their sked.

Cincinnati. Losing to PC twice doesn't help, but the Bearcats don't really have any bad losses. Still, they only have two good wins: UNLV and UAB, and those aren't hat-hangers. Pretty much everyone good in the Big East is still on their sked.

Big Sky (1): Portland State

Big South (1): VMI

Big Ten (6): Michigan State, Purdue, Minnesota, Illinois, Michigan, Ohio State

Work to do: Penn State. Not a great RPI, but the Nittany Kittens do have two good wins: Purdue and Northwestern (I can't believe I just typed that). If they keep winning the games they should win, and they squeak out a 9-7 or 10-6 Big Ten record, Penn State might have a shot at sneaking in as a 10, 11 or 12 seed.

Wisconsin. It's an off-year for the Badgers. But the loss to Iowa is really the only bad defeat. So, the Badgers can improve their chances with a solid run to finish the season. They need to finish 8-8 or better to have a legitimate shot.

Big West (1): Long Beach State

Colonial (1): Northeastern

Work to do: VCU. The Rams really have some bad losses, like Delaware and East Carolina, and they only have one good win -- New Mexico. Not exactly the best resume. Their RPI of 60 has to improve. They may need to win the league title to have a shot.

George Mason. You can't lose to Liberty and Hampton and expect to get in as an at-large team. GMU has to win the league.

Conference USA (2): Memphis, UAB

Work to do: Houston. Tough losses to Ole Miss, Mississippi State and Iowa State have Houston in a precarious position. The Cougs' only good win -- UAB -- isn't doing enough for them.

Tulsa. Losses to Tulane and Ohio are bad. The best win on Tulsa's sked is Oral Roberts. Yikes.

Horizon (1): Butler

Ivy (1): Cornell

MAAC (1): Siena

MAC (1): Buffalo

MEAC (1): Morgan State

Missouri Valley (1): Northern Iowa

Mountain West (2): UNLV, BYU

Work to do: Utah. Uh, the Utes lost to Southwest Baptist and Idaho State. But hey, they did beat Gonzaga, LSU and BYU. And they're RPI is a gaudy 28.

San Diego State. Probably shouldn't lose to Wyoming, but SDSU has a few more chances to make a splash in the MWC.

NEC (1): Robert Morris

Ohio Valley (1): Austin Peay

Pac-10 (6): Washington, Cal, UCLA, Arizona State, USC, Stanford

Work to do: Arizona. The Wildcats have to get back to .500 in league play. There aren't any real head-scratcher type of losses, and Gonzaga, Kansas and Houston are nice wins, but 'Zona has to start playing better in conference.

Patriot (1): Holy Cross

SEC (4): Kentucky, Florida, Tennessee, South Carolina

Work to do: LSU. The Tigers are 15-4 overall and 3-1 in the worst power conference. They need to do more, like beat a team inside the RPI Top 50.

Southern (1): Davidson

Southland (1): Texas A&M-Corpus Christi

SWAC (1): Alabama State

Summit (1): North Dakota State

Sun Belt (1): Western Kentucky

West Coast (2): Saint Mary's, Gonzaga

WAC (1): Utah State