Friday, January 26, 2007

Just Some Quick Updates

It's been a little while so why not bring people out there in BlogLand back up to speed? There have been a couple you-might-not-care-now-but-you-will-when-the-season-starts signings in the Major Leagues and I thought we'd start with those. Then we can begin my Bubble Watch and Tournament Chat. To the baseball stuff first:

-- The Mariners have quietly developed a decent rotation after losing Jamie Moyer, Gil Meche and Joel Piniero. They are in the final stages of signing Jeff Weaver (one year, $8.25 million). Now Weaver isn't a fantastic signing in that he'll turn the franchise around. But give him credit, he has some decent to above average stuff that should solidify the backend of Seattle's rotation.

Joining the ranks of the Ms are Horacio Ramirez and Miguel Batista. Ramirez came over from Atlanta in exchange for Rafael Soriano. Batista inked a three-year deal. Again, no front-end signings, but guys that fill the 3-5 slots in the rotation. With Batista, Ramirez and Weaver at the tail end of the roto, and Jarrod Washburn and an improving Felix Hernandez, Seattle might have a team that can compete again.

-- JD Drew finally agreed in full to play in a Red Sox uniform for 2007. Apparently there was some debate over Drew's shoulder and its health. The Sox didn't want to agree to anything until the doubts were snuffed out.

-- The Phils establishing Chase Utley and Jimmy Rollins means they might actually have a core of players ready to take the team to the next level. The trade for Freddy Garcia certainly helps. Throw in Ryan Howard's inability to leave until at least 2010 or 2011, and the Phillies are in good shape.

OK, those are the biggest stories as of late in the Major Leagues. To hoops:

Here are the top 8 teams in the country according to yours truly:

1. Florida -- even though I think it will do something to lose in March, probably over the second weekend (Sweet 16, Elite Eight)
2. UCLA -- love the defensive ability of the club.
3. Wisconsin -- it has the player to lead them (Alando Tucker) but I won't be sold until Ohio State gets its shot at the Badgers in Columbus. Still, the win at home against the Buckeyes, and wins over Pitt, Michigan, at Illinois and at Marquette all make Wisconsin a legitimate top seed.
4. UNC -- duh. Do I even need to talk about the reasons the Tar Heels are here?
5. Ohio State -- the Buckeyes lost twice in the only two games I've seen them play (both road losses), yet in both games, I was extremely impressed.
6. Texas A&M -- the Aggies have the defense to make anyone uncomfortable.
7. Pitt -- still need a marquuee win against a ranked opponent, but the Big East is awful.
8. Oregon -- I love the Ducks. If Aaron Brooks can stay healthy, they will be tough all year.
8a. Kansas -- so talented, so inconsistent

One the Bubble Watch to start the conversation...
Boston College 14-5 6-1 in the ACC RPI: 40 SOS: 36
-- Face it, beating FSU and Virginia in Cambridge aren't the marquee wins BC needs. Being killed by Kansas, Clemson and Vermont and losing to Duquesne makes me wonder if they are legit.
Virginia 12-6 4-2 in the ACC RPI: 92 SOS: 64
-- Wins over Maryland, Gonzaga and Arizona are nice, but a loss to Appalachain State looks bad. Big chances for big wins were missed in the three-game losing streak (Stanford, @ UNC, @BC).
Florida State 14-6 2-4 in the ACC RPI: 22 SOS: 11
-- Should be in unless something goes horribly awry
Georgia Tech 13-6 2-4 in the ACC RPI: 33 SOS: 35
-- Wins over Duke, Memphis, Purdue and FSU are solid but the Yellow Jackets need seven or eight conference wins and the schedule doesn't get any easier -- Va. Tech, Clemson, UConn (out of conference but HUGE for both teams), at FSU, at Duke, at Virginia, UNC and BC.

Xavier 14-6 4-2 in the A-10 RPI: 50 SOS: 43
-- As I'll say about the next two teams, Xavier probably has to win the conference tournament or win the regular season title with at least 12 conference wins and get to the conference tourney title game.
UMass 14-6 4-2 in the A-10 RPI: 69 SOS: 146
-- Both RPI and SOS are killing them. Plus, they needed to beat URI and Xavier, and failed in both tries. A win over Louisville in December won't carry much weight with the selection committee.
GW 14-4 5-1 in the A-10 RPI: 78 SOS: 179
-- The Colonials are behind Texas A&M-Corpus Christi in the RPI and the SOS is awful. They have get some big wins in conference and make a run in the tournament.
URI 13-8 6-1 in the A-10 RPI: 141 SOS: 150
-- If the Rams keep winning the conference, the RPI will improve. Right now, they're on the list because I think they might keep winning.

Louisville 14-6 4-2 in the Big East RPI: 79 SOS: 49
-- Big wins over Providence, UConn and at DePaul in conference are key. Still, room for improvement and some chances to get upper-level wins are on the horizon.
Providence 13-6 3-3 in the Big East RPI: 55 SOS: 45
-- Wins over BC, Marquette and GW are quality, but losses to Brown, Florida State (by30) and Seton Hall hurt. The Friars have more chances for marquee wins: at UConn, at Marquette, at Pitt, at Notre Dame, West Virginia, Syracuse and a home and home with St. John's give PC a couple good spots to step up and get big wins. Going 4-4 or 5-3 in that stretch might put them over the top.

Purdue 13-7 2-4 in the Big 10 RPI: 46 SOS: 19
-- A very strong SOS and RPI will help the Boilermakers, but they'll need to start winning the Big 10 if they want to stay that high in the ratings.

Texas 14-5 4-1 in the Big 12 RPI: 56 SOS: 91
-- A couple of tough losses on national TV hurt the Longhorns' chances, but if the selection committee is anything like me, it'll want to see Kevin Durant in the tourney.
Kansas State 14-6 3-2 in the Big 12 RPI: 49 SOS: 77
-- Without Bill Walker, the Wildcats could have some trouble getting wins in conference. But games at Texas, at Kansas and at OK State give them three solid chances to pick up a win.

Hofstra 15-5 8-1 in the CAA RPI: 64 SOS: 140
-- The Pride are 15-2 since their rough 0-3 start, with wins over St. Joe's and St. John's. Still, they'll probably have to win the conference regular or postseason title to get in.
Drexel 15-4 7-2 in the CAA RPI: 41 SOS: 106
-- Bruiser Flint has a winner in Philly. His Dragons topped Syracuse, Villanova, St. Joe's and MAC-leading Toledo. A solid resume, but they'll need to do well the rest of the way in conference to avoid any questions.

Creighton 13-7 7-3 in the MVC RPI: 45 SOS: 29
-- A good start in the MVC puts the Bluejays (yes, it's officially one word) in the thick of the Bubble. Beating Xaiver, Missouri State twice and at Northern Iowa helps the cause. Still, they missed chances for good out-of-conference wins in losing to Nebraska and Dayton.
Northern Iowa 15-5 6-3 in the MVC RPI: 44 SOS: 101
-- The Panthers won their in-state contests with Iowa and Iowa State, and myriad wins in conference help. They'll need 12 conference wins and a showing in the semifinals of the MVC tourney.
Bradley 15-7 6-4 in the MVC RPI: 34 SOS: 12
-- Crushed DePaul and Rutgers, hung with Illinois and beat Iowa State. The Braves need to keep winning in conference and probably, like Northern Iowa, get 12 wins and a good tourney showing.
Missouri State 14-7 5-5 in the MVC RPI: 31 SOS: 21
-- A .500 record in the MVC isn't the same as a .500 record in any of the power conferences. It's not much worse, but it's not on that par. So the Bears need to step it up. Still, the win over Wisconsin and three-point loss to OK State help. But Mizzou State has to rebound from its recent three-game skid.
Wichita State 13-8 4-6 in the MVC RPI: 61 SOS: 37
-- In the what-have-you-done-for-me-lately mindset of the selection committee, the Shockers are in trouble. Wins at LSU and Syracuse help their cause, but that was so long ago that the 4-6 MVC record hurts WSU's image.

BYU 14-6 4-2 in the Mountain West RPI: 53 SOS: 50
-- Yes, I included the Mormons on this list. The RPI and SOS are nice and high, so why not? Beat Seton Hall and San Diego State.
Colorado State 14-5 4-3 in the Mountain West RPI: 71 SOS: 149
-- Win over Kansas State is huge for the resume. Loss to Wyoming? Not so much. The Rams need to do better in their conference and do well in the tournament to have a shot.

Stanford 13-5 5-3 in the Pac 10 RPI: 37 SOS: 22
-- Being in the Pac 10 helps the Cardinal in terms of RPI and SOS. HUGE win over USC yesterday helps even more. Wins over Texas Tech, Virginia and Washington State might put them over the edge.

Vanderbilt 14-6 4-2 in the SEC RPI: 67 SOS: 70
-- Beat Georgia Tech, Tennessee, Alabama, Kentucky AND LSU. If the Commodores keep winning, they will be off the Bubble. Those conference wins are huge.
Tennessee 14-6 2-3 in the SEC RPI: 18 SOS: 9
-- The ratings here would imply that I'm crazy. But losing four out of their last five hurts the Vols. They'll need to recover some momentum before they are safely in.
Arkansas 13-7 2-4 in the SEC RPI: 28 SOS: 7
-- Great ratings paired with wins over West Virginia, Alabama and LSU help the Razorbacks. But, like the Vols, losing four of the last five contests hinders the 'Backs resume from appealing to me.
Ole Miss 13-7 2-4 in the SEC RPI: 94 SOS: 130
-- Yeah, yeah, the ratings are awful. But beating Tennesse and Arkansas helps. Still, the Rebels are 2-5 in their last seven, and show few signs of turning it around. Placement on the Bubble is purely a formality.
Auburn 13-8 3-3 in the SEC RPI: 103 SOS: 51
-- The Tigers conference wins (Tennessee, Alabama and Vandy) and solid showings against OK State, Pitt and LSU help. If Auburn keeps winning tough games in the conference, it could sneak in the tournament as a 12 or 13 at-large.

Santa Clara 14-6 4-1 in the WCC RPI: 72 SOS: 75
-- Winning at Stanford doesn't outweigh the awful blowouts against Cal, Missouri State, Kentucky and Air Force. Losing to Gonzaga probably hurt the Broncos' chances.
Gonzaga 13-7 4-1 in the WCC RPI: 57 SOS: 27
-- Huge wins over UNC, Texas and Washington help. But the Bulldogs' loss to St. Mary's (CA) in conference leaves them tied with Santa Clara. They'll need to beat the Broncos again and hope to go undefeated in the WCC from here on out. A 5-6 run over the last 11 games makes things rather dangerous down the stretch in terms of "going in strong." Still, expect the Zags to pull it out in the conference tourney.

New Mexico State 16-4 6-1 WAC RPI: 66 SOS: 206
-- The strength of schedule KILLS the Aggies. They haven't won against anyone good out of conference. A major win against Nevada definitely helps their chances -- the Wolfpack are definites for the tourney.
Utah State 15-5 4-2 in the WAC RPI: 68 SOS: 190
-- Yet another WAC team with a whack nonconference schedule. Terrible joke. Anyway, two meetings each with Nevada and New Mexico State remain on the Aggies' schedule. That means there is still a big chance for the Aggies to make some noise.


Well that's it for this Bubble. Talk to you all soon enough.