One more thing

Go on ESPN.com and read the college basketball section. Peter Tiernan and a group of researchers uncovered statistical trends that refute nearly every age-old recipe for success in the NCAA tournament.

Someone who, like in those commercials on TV, is talking out of their butts, would tell you, after watching three games from November to February, that they are experts on college hoops. Then they'll tell you three things:

1) Guard play has to be great to win games in the NCAA tournament
2) Balanced scoring has to be present to win games in the NCAA tournament
3) And senior leadership is hugely important

Don't listen to them. Let them tank in your bracket pool. The key indicators for success in the tournament, as exposed in this study, are:

1) Big margins of victory (over 14 ppg)
2) 60 percent of team scoring from the frontcourt
3) Experienced coaching

Those indicators have stats to back them up. That means Pitt needs Levon Kendall and Sam Young to contribute big time.

That is a problem.

Kendall can't shoot to save his life. The old pick-and-pop doesn't work when he misses his jumpers. Teams leave him open for those and send an extra rebounder to the basket. He gives up to much room in the paint. He gets pushed around. As head coach Jamie Dixon tells us, he does all the little things. Well, maybe he could hit a shot or four, too.

Young, on the other hand, is the polar opposite when it comes to the little things. He is always, always napping on defense, out of position and undersized. Washington's Jon Brockman made Young look like his little brother trying to guard him in the post. If you concede position two feet from the basket, the battle is over. Then when you consider Young's proclivity for 15 footers, it's no wonder he takes hits with his minutes.

Will the real Sam Young please stand up? Twenty-one points against WVU wedged by nonperformances against EVERYONE ELSE. C'mon, man, are you going to try or not? No more blow-bys, please. Kendall, that goes for you, too.

If you held a gun to my head and told me to forecast Pitt's performance in the tournament, I'd say a second-round loss to a 6, 7, 10 or 11 seed. I hate to say it. And I'll hate to say I told you so.

Updates

It's been 11 days since I last posted, so there's lots to cover. First, there are arguably seven good teams in college hoops. Eight on a good day. And I can't express that enough. No one is good outside of those eight. The age-old saying was that champs often come from the second shelf -- the No. 6-15 ranked teams. But this year's group lags. No talent. No signs of life. No one wants to be ranked after the top eight. Everyone else loses when they shouldn't.

Enough furious ranting. Let's update a few things.

One seeds -- Florida, UCLA, Wisconsin, Ohio State
- Yes, I still rate those four ahead of the others, even with some questionable stumbles over the past weeks
Two seeds -- North Carolina, Texas A&M, Kansas, Pitt
- UNC and A&M could jump to the top line if UCLA, 'consin or State stumble. Kansas and Pitt are at their peak positions. Any bad losses could drop them to 3s.
Three seeds -- Washington State, Memphis, Nevada, Georgetown
- I think Wazzou and Memphis could jump to 2s if KU and Pitt struggle over the next two weeks. I think Nevada and Georgetown would have to win impressively to move any higher. Nothing wrong with a 3.
Four seeds -- Butler, Southern Illinois, Air Force, Kentucky
- How about that for mid-major influence? With Nevada at a 3 and Butler, SIU and Air Force at 4s, it'd be hard to root for Cinderellas. Kentucky's in because of its RPI.

Hot -- Kansas, Georgetown, Louisville, Winthrop, Purdue, SIU, BYU, Nevada
Not -- Clemson, New Mexico State, Arkansas, Oregon, Northern Iowa, Michigan, Oklahoma State, Texas Tech, Marquette, Florida State

Notice how many teams I've listed as struggling?

Improving its chances of getting in -- Providence. With wins over scrappy St. John's and No. 22/18 West Virginia put the Friars back on the bubble after a tough pair of road losses to Pitt and Notre Dame.

Michigan State. Couldn't have asked for a bigger night out of Drew Neitzel. Big, big win over Wisconsin puts them back in the discussion. Pretty much should be in with that win.

Killing its chances of getting in -- Florida State. Four-game losing streaks don't generally reflect well. Big three games at Maryland, home versus NC State and at Miami (FL). Might not be enough.

Oklahoma. If the Sooners ever appeared in the conversation with the four-game winning stretch, they couldn't appear more out of it now with a three-game skid.

Game of the week Georgetown-Pitt. This game is for the regular season crown. I don't care if both teams have two games following the game and Georgetown still has one before Pitt, this is it.

Another Big Saturday

A lot of things happened already this afternoon in college hoops.

-- Georgetown slaughtered Marquette in D.C. to take possession of second place in the Big East.

-- Dominic James apparently left his shooting touch in January. After today's game, he's 5 of 35 from the field in the last three games.

At times, James appears out of control and in his own little world. The 5-11 guard runs one-on-three and one-on-four breaks, attempting to slice through the lane or pull up. But his jumper has never been that great.

The benefit of him being a sophomore is that he can still work on his mid- and long-range jumpers. The problem is, in the meantime, he makes things awfully frustrating for his teammates.

-- On the flip side, Georgetown is on a seven-game win streak. The Hoyas are right back where they started the season -- in second place in the Big East. I say that because G'Town was widely selected to either win the Big East or take second. It is now in good position to at least tie for first with a win against Pitt Feb. 24 in D.C.

-- Pitt's RPI will get a major boost after West Virginia toppled UCLA in Morgantown this afternoon. I doubt that game, paired with Marquette's loss, will be enough to push Pitt into No. 1 chatter because Ohio State held off Purdue and Wisconsin outlasted Iowa. But the Panthers will inch closer. Needless to say, UCLA is probably still on the top shelf as far as seeds go.

-- Austin Peay held off Samford to maintain its lead in conference. As of right now, AP is probably pushing for a 13 or 14 seed. A loss there might've pushed them farther down the chain.

-- Va. Tech is killing, and I mean killing, Virginia right now. After ESPN put the Cavs' two best players on its front page, I guess that's the payback.

-- Creighton and Southern Illinois meet tonight at 6:30 in a huge battle for MVC supremacy. SIU holds the conference lead, but the Bluejays can make strides back into the race with a win.

-- VCU is watching the Hofstra-George Mason contest with frightened eyes after losing a rough road game. The CAA race could tighten up after VCU lost today, its second loss in the last week.

-- Tennessee killed Vandy, pushing the Commodores off their momentum swing. The Vols needed Chris Lofton back.

Mock Bracket Mocks Bracket

Twenty sports media members picked their NCAA tournament field for 2007 in the Mock Bracket exercise in Indianapolis.

Pitt is seeded in the East Rutherford region with its first- and second-round games in Buffalo. With all due respect, when I go to the NCAA tournament to cover Pitt basketball, I want to go to an exciting place.

What are my options for 2007? For the first- and second-round games, these cities host:

Sacramento -- Pretty sweet trip to Cali, but Pitt will never be shipped there in a pod as the top seed given every other city is closer
Buffalo -- Cold. Just...cold.
Columbus -- I mean, Ohio? Ohio.
Chicago -- This would be cool. I haven't been to Chi-town enough
New Orleans -- A few years ago, it would've been a party. Now, it would be an unreal experience. I could handle it
Spokane -- Eastern Washington meet watching paint dry. Paint, meet Spokane
Winston-Salem -- I've entered North Carolina. I've left North Carolina. And I want to keep it that way
Lexington -- Could this be? A return to my place of birth? Well. Not likely. Pitt has a very small chance of being sent there. The Panthers would have to lose out.

But more importantly, this simulated "Selection Committee" put Pitt as the No. 3 seed. That means there are at least eight teams better than the Panthers. Who did the Committee deem superior to the Big East leaders?

UCLA -- OK
Marquette -- Well, it did beat Pitt in the Petersen Events Center...but Pitt is winning the Big East. Which is more important?
Wisconsin -- The Badgers beat Pitt
Texas A&M -- Probably right there with UCLA as the best defensive team in the nation
UNC -- Duh
Kansas -- Ahead of Pitt? Really? I guess beating Florida helps when compared to a whopping 0-3 against top 25 teams
Florida -- Well, yeah.
Ohio State -- You're telling me you'd rather have Greg Oden than Aaron Gray?! Yeah, me too.

I'd have to say that Pitt winning the Big East regular season title would push them to a No. 2. And furthermore, if the Panthers win the Big East tournament, they are definitely a 2 seed.

In my opinion, there are three teams I can't imagine Pitt beating on that list -- Florida, UCLA and UNC. The Panthers could compete -- and I emphasize "could" -- with Ohio State and Wisconsin. And I certainly think Pitt is in the same class as Texas A&M, Kansas and Marquette.

Beating Georgetown and Marquette in their lairs would help Pitt's case. But that's a tall order. A safer bet is splitting those games and the Panthers winning the BEast in New York City. Assuming Pitt wins all of its other games, that would leave the Panthers at 30-4 if they won the BEast tourney.

If that's not a 2 seed then I don't know what is. But still, that's a lot of prognostication for an early-February post.

But I still see teams in the field, according to these "experts," that don't belong there or are seeded way too high.

Arizona a No. 7 seed?
Creighton a No. 9 seed?
Gonzaga a No. 7?
Florida State a No. 6?
Kentucky a 3?
Villanova a 6?
Washington State a 3?!?!

Here are teams that got shafted by this Mock Bracket...

Southern Illinois as a 5
Clemson as an 11
UNLV as a 9
Butler as a 4
Kansas State as an 11
Pitt as a 3
Oregon as a 4
Air Force as a 5
Virginia Tech as an 8

And that's it. That's all I have for today. Boy, I was busy. As Jim Jones would say, "Postin'!"

See yinz guys tomorrow.

Young's O key for Pitt - Sports

We've spent the last week bashing bloggers and blogmasters in my Great American Journalists class. The class is registered as a nonfiction class and we study journalism from myriad angles -- photojournalism, sports writing, covering campaigns, etc.

Very exciting. The class is actually my favorite class right there with American foreign policy. It's interesting. But I liked that people bashed bloggers. I'm not really a true blogger -- it's not what I strive to do. I feel like blogging is a way for me to put my thoughts on...well, a computer screen. So I decided to post today.

-- I went to West Virginia last night. It was dark, so I can't necessarily report on the scenery from outside the WVU Coliseum. But at roughly 6:30 p.m., I entered the illustrious home of the West Virginia Mountaineers for a showdown of epic proportions.

The stadium was filled with raucous fans. The student section took up an entire side of the stadium. Hint: Pitt -- maybe the Pete could use more seats for the Oakland Zoo. Anyway, the WVU fans were a little offensive -- "Gray's a fa***t" was their favorite chant -- and I didn't like that so much. I mean, everyone is entitled to their opinion, but I've seen Grayzilla macking Pitt girls. Hell, he's probably macked WVU girls.

I also noticed a massive influx of camoflauge hats and pants. I would not go to WVU basketball games if I were a deer. Or a bear for that matter. Or an employer on the brink of firing an employee.

But let's talk about the game itself.

-- West Virginia (18-5, 7-4 in the Big East) looked overmatched from the get-go, hitting 3 of their 16 first-half 3-pointers. Pitt led 27-17 at the half. Sam Young keyed everything, looking healthy (finally) and giddy to get some minutes.

Young's O key for Pitt - Sports

I was impressed with the pressure the Mountaineers put on the ball (as usual) with their 1-3-1 zone. It has potential to cause problems in the first and second rounds of the NCAA tournament.

But is WVU a credible team to make a run in the tournament? At this point, I'd say no. But there are really only three teams in the Big East capable of doing that -- Pitt, Marquette and Georgetown -- and we all know how capable each of those programs are of choking. Throw in Notre Dame as a very, very iffy team. The Fighting Irish could make a run. Or they could lose to Oral Roberts in the 5-12 game. Don't get me wrong -- I liked reading about Oral Roberts, the man (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oral_Roberts) -- ORU is a quality team that could pull an upset, but Notre Dame is a better club. And that would be an embarrassing loss for the Big East.

As you probably know by now, WVU lives and dies by the 3 ball. And if a team defends them well man-to-man, the Mountaineers might bounce out early.

-- Pitt (21-3, 9-1 in the Big East) looked great. The Panthers defended extremely well, challenging every shot (for the most part) and staving a late WVU rally. Good teams coast all game and win close games by the skin of their teeth. Great teams respond to the runs made by the opponent and hits daggers at key spots to kill the comebacks. Pitt did just that last night. Ronald Ramon hit back-to-back 3-pointers to distance Pitt from WVU midway through the half and Young hit a HUGE 3 with four minutes left to crush a 12-0 WVU run.

Against tougher opponents, Pitt will need to defend like it did last night. And if it does, Pitt will definitely have a good shot at Atlanta at the end of March.

-- It was great to see Duke lose, by the way. The Blue Devils actually put up a good fight, but all that matters is that they lost.

-- Pitt fans: don't sleep on Providence when it comes to town Saturday. The Friars are young, gritty and not afraid of anyone. Plus they need a marquee road win. But Pitt is pretty much unbeatable at the Pete (let's just excuse the Marquette loss as a legitimate loss to a legitimate team).

I'll take the Panthers by six. (If this game were in Providence, I might waver.)

-- As I type, I catch updates of news. Sometimes I'll mention a news snippet and comment. Other times, I'll mention something. Anna Nicole Smith apparently just died.

-- There is a noticeable problem in the middle of the Big East -- nobody wants to separate. Let's watch this weekend:

Saturday
'Nova at Seton Hall
Marquette at Georgetown
South Florida at Louisville
Providence at Pitt

Sunday
St. John's at Syracuse

'Nova, 'Cuse, Louisville and Providence are all at critical points. 'Nova and Louisville have quality wins to hold up if they lose this weekend, but PC and Syracuse need big wins now. Syracuse will have to get theirs some other way, because beating St. John's at home isn't going to wrinkle the Selection Committee's collective tie. PC has a shot this weekend to get a gigantic win at Pitt to match its home win over Marquette. We have to see what these guys are made of.

-- OK, more at a later date. Probably after Pitt-PC Saturday.

-- And if you hold a gun to my head, I'll pick some more bubble teams. Comment, comment, comment. I like hearing other college hoops fans opinions. C'mon!

My Bracketology

Here is my tournament field if the selection committee met today. And I promise, it's more reliable than Joe Lunardi.

1 seeds: Florida, UCLA, UNC, Wisconsin
2 seeds: Kansas, Pitt, Texas A&M, Oregon
3 seeds: Memphis, Oklahoma State, Marquette, Duke
4 seeds: Butler, Air Force, Notre Dame, Kentucky
5 seeds: Washington State, Indiana, Virginia Tech, Nevada
6 seeds: Southern Illinois, Clemson, Alabama, Georgetown
7 seeds: USC, West Virginia, UNLV, Michigan State
8 seeds: Tennessee, Texas, Virginia, Louisville
9 seeds: Florida State, Stanford, Vanderbilt, Gonzaga
10 seeds: New Mexico State, Creighton, Boston College, Arkansas
11 seeds: George Washington, Missouri State, Texas Tech, Syracuse
12 seeds: VCU, Arizona, Wichita State, Providence
13 seeds: Winthrop, Vermont, Akron, Oral Roberts
14 seeds: South Alabama, Texas A&M-Corpus Christi, Davidson, Austin Peay
15 seeds: Weber State, East Tennessee State, Cal State-Fullerton, Holy Cross
16 seeds: Central Connecticut State, Loyola (Md.), Penn
Play-in game: Delaware State vs. Jackson State

How bad are the teams between, I don't know, the No. 4 and No. 16 seeds? This might be the worst tournament ever.