Monday, November 21, 2005

Red Sox Abandon Farm System; Want to Win Right Away

Jeff Greer
www.jeffgreersports.blogspot.com

(Boston)--Red Sox prospects Hanley Ramirez and Anibal Sanchez, both 21-years-old, discovered their "players-to-be named later" status last night when the Boston Red Sox front office traded away their two young stars for immediate help with starting pitching and power hitting.

The Red Sox received 2003 World Series MVP Josh Beckett and $18-million man Mike Lowell from the Florida Marlins in exchange for two of their most talented young Minor Leaguers.

The oft-injured Beckett threw 178 2/3 innings in 2005, winning 15 games while posting a 3.38 ERA in the process. In the three seasons prior to 2005, Beckett won just 24 games, missing a combined 32 starts due to injuries.

Mike Lowell lost his All-Star status with a dismal 2005 season, hitting just .236 in 150 games for the Florida Marlins. The 31-year-old drove in over 100 runs in 2001 and 2003, while knocking 131 homers in his six full seasons with the Marlins. Lowell has never hit over .300, but smacked 226 doubles and collected 531 RBIs between 2000 and 2005.

Ramirez, rated the number one prospect in the Red Sox farm system, found himself trapped in the Minor Leagues after Boston signed veteran shortstop Edgar Renteria to a 4-year, $40-million deal after the 2004 season. The Marlins might play Ramirez as early as next season, depending on the health of their current shortstop, Alex Gonzalez.

Anibal Sanchez, a 2005 Futures Game World All-Star, pitched for Boston's Double-A affiliate, Portland, Me., for the latter half of the 2005 season, posting a 3.96 ERA with five losses. Sanchez positioned himself to see considerable time in future seasons with the Major League club, and the Marlins might need him immediately upon the departure of aces AJ Burnett and Josh Beckett.

Florida and Boston still need to work out the contract of Mike Lowell, who is set to earn $18-million over the next two seasons. The Marlins reportedly agreed to cover much of the contract, despite their intent to clear payroll.

The teams will announce the finalized deal on Wednesday.

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Tuesday, November 15, 2005

Hot Stove Quick Hits

Despite the lack of any major star power, the free agent market still features nice players that can complement a lot of rosters around the league. Paul Konerko is a bona fide power threat that plays a strong firstbase. Johnny Damon is the best leadoff hitter in the Major Leagues, in my opinion, and certainly fields his position well. There are several quality relief pitchers that filed for free agency, and that means teams like Boston, Toronto, or even Pittsburgh, can improve their pitching over the holidays. I expect bloated contracts and lots of misplaced money this offseason. But I also expect several teams to significantly improve their lineups, rotations, or bullpens with some quality moves. Let's take a look at some key free agents and where they could really make an impact.

Paul Konerko: Konerko put up fantastic power numbers the past two seasons and in the 2005 playoffs, but what's overlooked is his production before he exploded into a superstar power threat. Paul hit 122 homers and drove in 446 runs between his 23rd and 27th birthdays. He holds a career average of .279 and a strong OBP of .349. Konerko started striking out more in the past two seasons, but his home run and RBI totals increased, putting him in the "power hitter" category.

The "power hitter" stereotype is that he swings harder more often, costing him some at bats for the sake of hitting a home run or driving in some runners. Paul Konerko just needs more protection in the lineup and he will strikeout less. If you look at his numbers prior to his power explosion, he never hit the 100 strikeout mark in a season, and can someone tell me who was hitting in front or behind him in those seasons? Carlos Lee and Frank Thomas. The point is: Paul Konerko will thrive in an atmosphere that provides him with strong protection, either in front of him, behind him, or both.

If Konerko lands in Boston, he will have David Ortiz, Manny Ramirez (yes, he's staying), and Jason Varitek protecting him in the lineup. In Toronto, Paul would be the centerpiece that glues Shea Hillenbrand and Vernon Wells together. The Blue Jays have an expanded payroll this offseason, and desperately need a bat to bring in lots of RBIs. The White Sox need Konerko the most, but might not have the wallet to stick with a huge payroll in Boston or an expanding one in Toronto. Heck, Konerko could go to the Mets for all we know, but he is going to see lots of money.
Final Accepted Contract: 5 years, $70-million ($14-million/year)

Johnny Damon: A big issue with Johnny Damon is that god-awful beard. In all seriousness, though, his health remains a factor in his future paychecks. He looked better in the playoffs, but still swung with one hand. Johnny is a career .290 hitter and a .989 fielding percentage in ten years of ball make him attractive to a lot of teams. It helps that he spurred the Red Sox to three straight playoff berths and a World Series ring. He is a celebrity-type player and will sell tickets. If teams are convinced that his shoulder is better, then they will spend plenty of money to bring him in.

The bottom line is, despite all the supposed, media-hyped turmoil in the Red Sox front office, they are under control and they will not let Damon get away. Prospects David Murphy and Brandon Moss are still another year or two away from being Major League-ready, so the Sox will not miss out on a chance to re-sign Johnny Damon. Trot Nixon will probably not be back in a starting capacity in 2007, but next year, Nixon, Damon, and Ramirez will patrol the Fenway grass. Look for a deal structure similar to Jason Varitek's in early 2005.
Final Accepted Contract: 4 years, $48- to $56-million (anywhere in the $12- to $14-million/year range)

Big Name Closers/Setup relievers: The biggest names available include Bill Wagner, BJ Ryan, Trevor Hoffman, Tom Gordon, Bobby Wickman, Kyle Farnsworth, and Todd Jones. Now, in my opinion, the closer position is horribly overvalued. A pitcher that comes into a game with a lead and nobody on does not particularly have as tough a job as a middle reliever that comes in with the game tied, one out and two runners on. That's why I think signings like Mike Myers. Julian Tavarez, or Ricardo Rincon are more important to teams than the big closer deals. Who gets the big outs in tough situations in the middle innings? The Brendan Donnellys and Ray Kings of the league.

Nonetheless, the closer position is still important. Bullpens need that one guy that pitches an inning-plus and gets pressure outs. Nobody likes losing a game in the ninth inning, so naturally teams need a guy that gets those three outs, or even four or five if they have the endurance. Bill Wagner is best closer available, and with teams like the Mets, Red Sox, Phillies moving towards a bidding battle, he is going to cash in this winter. When Wagner collects a bloated 4-year-deal of $50-million proportions, guys like BJ Ryan and Trevor Hoffman will start pushing up their price. Expect teams like the Red Sox, Mets, or Orioles to overpay guys to fill in key spots in their 'pens.


I love the offseason. It keeps baseball interesting in the winter, as teams battle over the services of a player. I think this particular free agency class isn't anything special, but it still has some quality players. Again, look for bigger contracts than expected on players that might not necessarily deserve them. Watch the Red Sox and Mets this offseason. Both teams are willing to spend lots of money, with Omar Minaya trying to build up the Latino influence in Queens and the Red Sox front office trying to put together a team to improve upon its failure of a 2005 season.

Saturday, November 12, 2005

NBA Preview: Part II (Western Conference)

To continue my season preview, I will now take the mighty giant known as the Western Conference. This conference is also known as the "Spurs and then some teams that aren't very good Conference." The second best team in the West is Dallas. The Mavericks need to patch up their defense to contend with the Spurs, but otherwise, I don't think the Spurs have much competition to get back to the Finals. Nonetheless, to wit:

Northwest Division

Utah: Who is Keith McLeod? Anyway, Deron Williams will develop throughout the season, and probably become the reliable point that scouts said he would be. If Kirilenko stays healthy and the Jazz get more out of Carlos Boozer, they might be a tough team. Mehmet Okur is better than people think but the bench is thin in Salt Lake City and that will be problematic. I think the Jazz will find themselves battling for third in their division this year, and continue to improve into next year.
Final Record: 38-44

Minnesota: It's hard to imagine Kevin Garnett allowing his team to miss the playoffs two years in a row. KG and Wally Szczerbiak need to get along, and Mario Jaric needs to produce at the point for the T'Wolves to be successful. If Rashad McCants develops into a viable bench option and Eddie Griffin stays out of the trouble, combining those two with Trenton Hassell and Nikoloz Tskitishvili makes the T'Wolves very solid. I like their chances in this division, and I see them battling the Nuggets for the title.
Final Record: 48-34

Denver: I don't understand why the Nuggets brought in Earl Watson, but I still like the chances for Denver to win their division. Carmelo Anthony, Andre Miller, Marcus Camby, Kenyon Martin, and even Voshon Lenard form a formidable starting lineup, and Earl Boykins provides that exciting spark off the bench that playoff teams need. If the Nuggets can prevent allowing Nene's injury to hurt them in the post, they will be the best team in the Northwest Division.
Final Record: 49-33

Seattle: The Sonics aren't bad. Ray Allen and Rashard Lewis make one of the best 1-2 punches in the league, and Luke Ridnour developed into a nice point last season. If they can avoid a letdown after last year's overachieving, this year will be another season that the Sonics will compete for a playoff spot. I think the Northwest Division will put three teams in the playoffs, and the Sonics are included in that group.
Final Record: 45-37

Portland: The Blazers love getting in trouble. I don't think they can compete with Telfair running the point. He will good in the future, but this year will feature some growing pains moments, and maybe some in-fighting. Zach Randolph is good, but he has motivation issues and Darius Miles has never developed into the player scouts thought he might be. In fact, Darius Miles is terrible. I like Theo Ratliff, Joel Przybilla, Ruben Patterson, and Juan Dixon off the bench, but I still think the Blazers will have lots of off-court issues that prevent their making the playoffs.
Final Record: 30-52

Pacific Division

LA Clippers: What is with people criticizing the Clippers off-season? Sam Cassell and Cuttino Mobley are very good guards, and the frontcourt of Kaman, Brand, and Maggette will be tough on any opponent. I think the Clippers will shed their "Bad News Bears" reputation and make the playoffs. I don't think chemistry will be an issue as Elton Brand is a quiet star, Sam Cassell is in a contract year, and Corey Maggette will get plenty of touches. This team has a strong bench and will contend.
Final Record: 45-37

LA Lakers: As much as Kobe Bryant has duped the media and sports minds alike into thinking he is a superstar, he is not. When you shoot 30 times a game to score 25 points, don't rebound or pass, and cause all sorts of chemistry problems, you are not an MJ-prototype. Lamar Odom looked like he had gotten things turned around in Miami, and then he came to LA, and he is back to being his old self. He doesn't touch the ball enough, and the rest of the Lakers roster isn't going to help things. Devean George's return will help the Lakers, but it'll be fun to see if Phil Jackson can be a good coach without the talent. Jackson is a guy who has found himself in very good situations with Michael Jordon and Shaq and Kobe, so let's see if he's actually a good coach or not.
Final Record: 36-46

Golden State: The Warriors have good guard play, and should be a tough team to play for many Western Conference foes. Injury problems worry me as Baron Davis consistently lands on the Injured Reserve, so hopefully this year he can stay healthy and be the great player he can be. Jason Richardson is amazing, and one more year of adding talent, and the Warriors will be a playoff team. This year will be an experience, and it will not end nicely.
Final Record: 38-44

Phoenix: Without Amare Stoudamire, the Suns are missing the integral post player that helped them make the Western Conference Finals last year. Shawn Marion and Steve Nash will need to play bigger roles this year, and they will get some quality help from Raja Bell and James Jones. I like the Suns philosophy, and I think they will be tough again this year. They will need to stay in contention until February, and then things will take off when Stoudamire returns. This team will win the division.
Final Record: 48-34

Sacramento: The Kings look pretty good this year. Peja Stojakovic is the best shooter in the NBA when he is healthy, and Mike Bibby is a superstar. If Brad Miller and Kenny Thomas stay healthy, the Kings will compete for the playoffs. I like their bench, with Kevin Martin, Jason Hart, Corliss Williamson, and Shareef Abdur-Rahim, but I think they have too much competition for the playoffs in the West. Call it a ninth place finish.
Final Record: 44-38

Southwest Division

San Antonio: What else is there to be said about the Spurs other than that they are a well-oiled machine. Tim Duncan is the best big man in the NBA, and the guard combo of Manu Ginobili, Tony Parker, and Michael Finley gives them three scoring options to complement Duncan. Adding Nick Van Exel and Finley give them more depth than they had last year, and the Spurs will easily get back to the Finals.
Final Record: 68-14

Dallas: The Mavericks are the Spurs' best competition for the West. If Dirk Nowitzki can get his teammates involved more, and Avery Johnson gets his team to play some defense, the Mavs will be tough. Jason Terry did not crumble under the pressure of playoff basketball, and Nowitzki exploded last year statistically. I like the Mavs' chances, but the problem is, regardless of how they finish, be it first or second in the division, they will inevitably meet the Spurs in the second round of the playoffs. That makes it tough to pick them to get through the second round. Another frustrating postseason lies ahead of the Mavs.
Final Record: 55-27

Houston: I like the Rockets and I think they will be the third best team in the West, record-wise. T-Mac and Yao worked well together at the end of last season, and Stromile Swift adds a more athletic post presence to complement Yao Ming. I think that Rafer Alston will still be productive, and his guard companions, Derek Anderson and David Wesley, should help provide backcourt depth. If Jeff Van Gundy allows his team to open up more offensively, the Rockets might blossom into a dangerous team. I think this year will be kind to them.
Final Record: 50-32

Memphis: As much as I like the Grizzlies' lineup, I don't think it's talented enough to make the playoffs. Eddie Jones proved last season that he cannot be relied on, and Damon Stoudamire has plenty of issues off the court to deal with. Pau Gasol is a good player, but he isn't the type of guy that can emotionally lead his team to success. He will put up numbers, but he doesn't seem to really have the presence of a Tim Duncan or Kevin Garnett, and that's what separates those two from Gasol. I see the Grizzles missing the playoffs this year.
Final Record: 43-39

New Orleans/Oklahoma City: The development of Chris Paul will help this team improve this year. JR Smith, Desmond Mason, and Speedy Claxton add some depth to the backcourt, but the frontcourt lacks any solidity. PJ Brown isn't as good as he was three years ago, and David West is still learning the ins-and-outs of the league. I think the Hornets will improve from last year, but they still have some personnel issues to work on.
Final Record: 29-53

PLAYOFFS

With my incredibly accurate predictions, the standings look like this:

1. San Antonio
2. Denver
3. Phoenix
4. Dallas
5. Houston
6. Minnesota
7. LA Clippers
8. Seattle

With matchups looking like this:

San Antonio vs. Seattle
Denver vs. LA Clippers
Phoenix vs. Minnesota
Dallas vs. Houston

There are three very interesting series listed above. I think there is a good chance that we will see an upset if those matchups occur. The Spurs will sweep the Sonics, and easily move on. I think Denver might struggle with the Clippers, but eventually win in six. The Suns are my upset special, as I'm picking the T'Wolves to beat the Suns in seven and move on. I'll take Houston over Dallas this year, providing a nice encore to last year's fantastic first round series with a seven game battle.

That leaves us with San Antonio-Houston and Minnesota-Denver. I like the Spurs in the former series mentioned, although the Rockets will fight hard. If the Rockets really work at it, they can push the Spurs deep into a series. I think that series would be seven, with the Spurs letting Duncan carry them into the Western Conference Finals. Minnesota would be a tough matchup for Denver, who will need to struggle to win this series. Can Carmelo carry a team to greater success? We saw him do it in college, but on this level, can he? I think he will get them into the Western Conference Finals, with the help of Andre Miller and Kenyon Martin. That being said, we are left with the Spurs and Nuggets squaring off in the Western Conference Finals.

The Spurs are the best team in the NBA, and this year's team will be remembered as one of the best of recent times. They will handle the Nuggets despite being tired, as we saw them do last year. I'll take them in five. The Nuggets just don't have the experience and firepower to keep up with the Spurs. The Spurs have so much going for them, both in the frontcourt and backcourt, that they control their own destiny. The Spurs are my pick to win the NBA Championship, repeating and winning their fourth title in seven years.

Monday, November 07, 2005

NBA Preview: Part I (Eastern Conference)

Well, it's a week into the season and some fans are already nervous about their teams. Other fans, ahem, New York, have even given up on their team. Anyway, I know all of you desperately want to know what I'm thinking about the NBA this year. The 2005-2006 season will shape out to be one of the better seasons in recent years. There is the intrigue of a contender to repeat and potential 70-game winner in the Spurs, Phil Jackson and Kobe Bryant reuniting in Los Angeles, Phoenix running the same offense with different characters, and the hunt for the Eastern Conference title between several quality teams. First, I want to offer some thoughts on each team, then I will hit you with the hard predictions. At the midpoint of the baseball season, I picked out what I thought would be probable end-of-the-season records for every team in baseball. At the beginning of the NBA season, I will do the same, and inevitably fail. Nonetheless, here goes nothin':

EASTERN CONFERENCE

Atlantic Division

New Jersey Nets: The Nets feature a beastly trio of stars in Vince Carter, Jason Kidd, and Richard Jefferson. Can anyone tell me the rest of their roster? Maybe two players on it? Granted, Nenad Krstic has developed into a solid low post presence, the Nets really still lack much of an inside game. Against bruisers like the Pacers, Pistons, and Heat, the Nets will struggle immensely to rebound and challenge shots in the paint. That being said, the Nets have the most star power in their division and that should be enough to get them into the playoffs. If their front office can bring in an impact big man before the trade deadline, they could morph into contenders, but until anything like that happens, they are a first-round-and-out kind of team.
Final Record: 46-36

Boston Celtics: You have to love the young talent progressing through the Celtics system. By integrating their younger players more and more over the next few years, the Celtics will rise to the top of the Eastern Conference...in 2008. This year, however, Paul Pierce and Ricky Davis will carry a team that resembles the 2004-2005 Chicago Bulls, i.e. lots of young talent, playing hard every night, out-hustling opponents, etc. I think the Celtics have a legitimate shot at the playoffs if they get a strong performance from their slew of young players. As long as Paul Pierce stays healthy and gritty, remains confident and doesn't lose faith in his younger teammates, the C's can contend for the weak Atlantic Division.
Final Record: 39-43

Philadelphia 76ers: Philly will always be tough as long as Allen Iverson puts on their jersey. The development of Kyle Korver as an outside shooter and Andre Iguodala as an explosive wing provides the Sixers with a nice combination of outside players to complement Iverson. If Chris Webber can stay healthy and Samuel Dalembert decides he wants to play this year, the Sixers could be a tough team, especially at home. The key to this team is Iverson getting the most out of his teammates, something he has always managed to do. If the supporting cast of AI stays healthy and out of trouble, the Sixers can contend with the Celtics and Nets for the the division title.
Final Record: 42-40

New York Knicks: How many guards can be on the floor at once, Isiah? Well, there's conventionally only two positions for guards, three if you are willing to sacrifice size and any inside establishment, four if you don't feel like making the playoffs, and five if you are Isiah Thomas. The 2005 draft still lingers in the heads of everyone but Isiah Thomas. My apologies to Matt Barnes, but he should be the 11th or 12th man on any NBA team, but in Manhattan, he starts at the 3. The aging Antonio Davis with the shaky Eddy Curry gives the Knicks an interesting frontcourt. I feared for Eddy Curry's health everytime he stepped on the court, and that was before all the heart issues, because he's just bad. Stephon Marbury will never pass, Jamal Crawford will hate this season, and Nate Robinson is a 5'9" shooting guard in the NBA. The Knicks have lots of talent, nowhere to put it, and a coach that will probably hate himself for leaving Detroit by the end of the season.
Final Record: 34-48

Toronto: The Raptors have no intentions of making the playoffs this year. My statement is not backed up by quotes or insinuations, but simply by their roster. Jalen Rose is hilarious but a headcase, and Mike James is a great backup point guard that is starting. Charlie Villanueva left a year too early and Loren Woods looks like a Pogo stick with shoes on. The Raptors feature Chris Bosh, an obviously talented big man with fantastic athletic ability, and no one else. I don't want to write anymore about them, they are a sorry franchise.
Final Record: 26-56

Central Division

Detroit Pistons: The Pistons have an easy task coming into the 2005-2006 season: Keep doin' what you do, playa! The Pistons return everyone that meant anything to their roster last year and seem poised to get back to the Finals. My beef with the Pistons is their lack of depth. In the past, the Pistons have always had great role players to fill in for their starters, but this year (and in the '05 Finals) we saw the lack of bench players leaving the starters tired and beaten up by the fourth quarter. If this group lasts all season without injuries then all the more power to them, but they need to acquire some bench depth to get hold on to their Eastern Conference title.
Final Record: 56-26

Indiana Pacers: Any team that features Ron Artest is scary enough, but add Jermaine O'Neal, Stephen Jackson, and some quality role players, and the Pacers become a dominant force in the NBA. Danny Granger is a wild card for this team because if he can step in and give Rick Carlisle some good minutes, the Pacers will have more flexibility on the wings and in transition. I like this team as a regular season club, but to reference Bill Simmons, I just can't see who will be taking their last shot. Down by two with ten seconds, who is taking that big jumper? Ron Artest? Jermaine O'Neal? I have trouble picking the Pacers to win anything more than the division and getting to the Eastern Conference finals.

Final Record: 59-23

Milwaukee Bucks: I have said that the Bucks will be tough to play with a healthy, confident TJ Ford and strong wing players, and I stick by that assertion. Michael Redd might be the best pure shooter in the NBA today, mix him with an underrated Bobby Simmons and the Bucks have a strong backcourt and the potential to be a very exciting team. They added a good post presence by acquiring Jamaal Magloire, but he isn't healthy very often, neither is Joe Smith, and by the end of the season, look for Andrew Bogut and Dan Gadzuric to be the main players in the Bucks frontcourt. Andrew Bogut looked very good in the first week and if he keeps it up, the Bucks will be a darkhorse team in the Eastern Conference playoffs.

Final Record: 44-38

Chicago: The Bulls retained the core of their strong, young team from last year. Kirk Hinrich and Tyson Chandler head up an offense that has numerous options with Luol Deng and Ben Gordon coming off the bench. Defensive stopper Chris Duhon is a nice role player for 'da Bulls' and Darius Songaila works hard in the post. With big game experience under their belts, the Bulls will be looking to improve upon last season, but in this division, it seems like they will need to keep improving at rapid rates to keep up. I don't think they'll be much better than last year, and they will have to work hard to make the playoffs.

Final Season Record: 41-41

Cleveland Cavaliers: I liked the addition of Larry Hughes and Damon Jones to the backcourt for the Cavs. LeBron needs a good co-pilot and some good role players to help him get a ring, and Larry Hughes might just be that guy. Zydrunas Ilgauskas is a solid post player in an Eastern Conference stacked with big fellas, and he has to be healthy for the Cavs to be contenders. Any team with LeBron will be tough to beat, and if Larry Hughes plays well alongside King James and Big Z stays healthy, the Cavs will be included in playoff discussions. The Cavs added depth with Jones and Donyell Marshall which will help them when they inevitably become injury-plagued.

Final Record: 46-36

Southeast Division

Miami: The most talented team on paper, the Miami Heat have to deal with some offensive issues, particularly Antoine Walker, Gary Payton, and Shaq all demanding the ball at all times. Dwayne Wade is the best guard in the NBA, yeah I said it, and he will continue to prove his worth in Miami. This team seems primed for a title run, but the last time a team had this much talent, they lost in the Finals to the Pistons in 2004 (remember the Lakers?). If the Heat can figure out a way to get D-Wade, Shaq, Antoine, GP, James Posey, and Jason Williams enough touches, and keep them all happy, they will be the best option to beat the Spurs.

Final Record: 64-18

Washington Wizards: Gilbert Arenas keeps getting better, and Antawn Jamison is a nice player for any team to have. I think this team will resemble the 2001-2002 Celtics, with an offense revolving around two guys, and role players that play their positions well when called on. The Wizards are tougher than a lot of people give them credit for, and Gilbert Arenas may have an even bigger year than last season. I think this team will give the big guys like Detroit, Miami, and Indiana fits, and maybe challenge them in the playoffs.

Final Record: 48-34

Charlotte Bobcats: Emeka Okafor is a very good player and with some strong young cats coming into the Bobcats franchise, this club might run at titles in three to five years, if they make quality additions and keep drafting well. Brevin Knight is a good floor leader and sees the court extremely well, and with Gerald Wallace and Kareem Rush as wing options, the 'Cats have a decent backcourt. Mix that with Okafor and a good Primoz Brezec, and the Bobcats put together a decent lineup. They will not make the playoffs, and will gain valuable experience as the season progresses. Charlotte will be competitive against good teams and win games against the Hawks and Raptors of the league, so expect them to turn out some positive results this year.

Final Record: 31-51

Orlando Magic: Steve Francis is one of my favorite players in the NBA, but he has issues. He wants to be a primary scoring option, but needs to handle the point guard duties for the Magic. He wants to be a contender but is stuck on a team that can't contend with the current lineup. Dwight Howard is going to be amazing in years to come, and this year will be his big breakout season. The Magic just don't have the firepower to compete with anyone and they will lose a lot of frustrating games.

Final Record: 32-50

Atlanta Hawks: The sorriest franchise in sports might be better this year than they've been in a while. The Hawks have a solid core of young'n's with Joe Johnson, Al Harrington, Josh Childress, and Josh Smith, mixed in with solid draft picks Marvin Williams and Salim Stoudamire. I really like this young team, especially because they start a guy at center named "Zaza." They will be another thorn in the side of good teams this year with some pizzazz and youth, but they need some time to gel together. Give them a season, and then we might talk Hawks and playoffs.

Final Record: 35-47

The Playoff picture based on the predicted records would look like this:

1.Miami vs 8. Philadelphia

4. Detroit vs. 5. Washington

3. New Jersey vs. 6. Cleveland

2. Indiana vs. 7. Milwaukee

These matchups seem as though they would be interesting, particularly the 4-5 and 3-6 series. Cleveland would be the only 'upset' in the first round, winning in seven. I'll take Miami in five, Detroit in six, and Indiana in five to go along with Cleveland.

1. Miami vs. 4. Detroit

2. Indiana vs. 6. Cleveland

LeBron James vs. Ron Artest? How's that for a matchup? I have to go with the talent of Miami and Indiana in these matchups. Now, now, Detroit has a lot of talent too, but in that series, the depth of the Heat far outweighs any talent advantage the Pistons might barely have. I will take the Heat in seven and the Pacers in six.

Eastern Conference Finals

Pacers and Heat. This is the kind of matchup that NBA fans want to see. Shaq, D-Wade, Antoine, and their cast of quality teammates against a two-man wagon led by two superstars. I think the Heat big men will be able to minimize Jermaine O'Neal, and overwhelm his help on the defensive end. The Heat can front the post and easily have help from the weak side that can handle O'Neal. The Pacers don't have anyone big enough to guard Shaq, and Antoine Walker always leads Jermaine O'Neal away from the basket when the two face off. This would be a great matchup, but the Heat would win it in six.

Friday, October 21, 2005

2009 Red Sox: Something to Get Excited About

The Boston Red Sox, thanks to Theo Epstein and his staff, have one of the best minor league systems among Major League ball clubs. As soon as he arrived in Boston, Epstein immediately worked on improving the farm system, drafting quality players that show the ability to rise through the minors quickly and help out of the big club sooner rather than later. In 2009, this team may look completely different, after contracts run out, overpaid veterans exit stage left, and the youngsters that Epstein brought into the organization surface on the pro roster. This is a major credit to Theo and the prime reason why the Red Sox ownership has to do whatever it takes to keep Epstein around for years to come. If the payroll can be cut, and the team can be better, then why not begin introducing the ready prospects to the Show now?

The Red Sox brought up utility pitcher Jonathan Papelbon in the middle of the 2005 season, and his combination of power pitching and steady confidence made him one of the best arms the Red Sox could rely when the postseason rolled around. Starters Jon Lester and Anibal Sanchez threw extremely well in their first season with the Portland Sea Dogs. Lester struck out 163 batters in only 148 innings pitched, while winning 11 games and posting a 2.61 ERA. Sanchez split time between single-A Wilmington and double-A Portland, punching out 158 hitters in just 25 overall appearances in 2005. Those three pitchers could easily find a way to replace the aging rotation of their Major League club and become the next Big Three in the near future. Papelbon, 24, throws hard fastballs paired with a dynamite slider and a tough changeup, and has the build of a big league pitcher at 6'4," 220 lbs. Lester, 21, consistently mixes his 2- and 4-seam fastballs, both hitting the low- to mid-90s, with a good changeup and great curveball. The sharp 11- to 5-break on Lester's curveball gives him two out pitches, according to Soxprospects.com. Anibal Sanchez, 21, has dynamite control of his 2- and 4-seam fastballs, both of which reach the mid-90s. He changes speeds and confuses hitters with a fantastic changeup and rapidly improving curveball. All three pitchers possess high levels of confidence and poise on the mound and, if they can stay healthy, will be the new wave of dominant pitchers that the Red Sox can rely on for years to come.

Regardless of how good your starting pitching is, your team always needs a strong bullpen to pick up the pieces of a bad start. It's a 162-game season with plenty more games in the postseason, and starters cannot be perfect every time they throw. The Red Sox brought up two great young relievers, Craig Hansen (drafted in 2005) and Manny Delcarmen (drafted in 2000, a shockingly smart pick by an otherwise dimwitted Dan Duquette), at the end of the season and they received valuable experience in September at the professional level. Craig Hansen,21, labeled the messiah of relief pitching by Red Sox Nation, hammers the strike zone with a fastball that pushes triple digits. He consistently throws in the mid-90s, and really rears back to strike hitters out. He mixes his Mach seven fastball with an amazing slider that hits the high-80s. His two pitches, matched with a strong closer's attitude and unbelievable command of the strike zone, will undoubtedly trouble Major League hitters in the future. Manny Delcarmen, 23, returned from Tommy John surgery throwing harder than he had before going under the knife. Delcarmen pounds the strike zone with a hot, high-90s fastball. He mixes up hitters with a devastating curve and a very strong changeup. He will fit well into the role of setup man for Hansen. These two will be the centerpieces of the Red Sox bullpen, closing out games similar to Rivera and Wetteland or Gordon and Rivera, meaning Sox starters needn't throw more than seven innings a start in a perfect world.

Ladies and gentlemen, I introduce to you: the Future! The middle infield tandem of Hanley Ramirez (SS) and Dustin Pedroia (2b) will create memories for generations to come. These two guys are so good, that people called for Pokey Reese to play short for one season to give Ramirez time to mature and then, in 2006, place Hanley at the center of the Red Sox quest for more championships. Dustin Pedroia may play second base in 2006, after a strong 2005 campaign, in which he won Red Sox Minor League Offensive Player of the Year. Ramirez is widely considered the number one prospect in the Red Sox organization, while Pedroia is considered the most Major League-ready position player. These two will be a dynamite pair of middle infielders when they reach Boston.

Kevin Youkilis is not a prospect anymore. Rumors swirl around his head, calling him the Red Sox third baseman or even first baseman of 2006. He is a moneyball player, meaning he gets on base a lot, and produces great at-bats every time he steps into the box. He will be sufficient on the defensive side of things and a staple in the Red Sox batting order for years to come. He is a player that the Red Sox cannot let go and must be placed in the lineup now to let his talent finally flourish.

I'd like to think that Jason Varitek will still in a Red Sox uniform and playing well in 2009, and it's certainly not out of the question, but if he is gone, then the Red Sox are in luck. Kelly Stoppach remains one of the top prospects in the Red Sox organization despite his inability to get reps in the pros. He can thank Jason's ascent to Red Sox legend status for his lack of chances to see time in the Show. Stoppach is another top of the line Moneyball guy, drawing walks and hitting for power. He plays impeccable defense and it only seems fair that he take over the reins when Varitek leaves.

The Red Sox outfield of the future features Brandon Moss, David Murphy, Jacoby Ellsbury, and Luis Soto. Soto is a little younger than the others, but has already been assessed as an up-and-coming superstar. Brandon Moss drove in 101 runs in single-A Augusta in 2004. Do you realize how hard it is to drive in runs in single-A? This kid will replace Trot Nixon when Trot can no longer play, and play rightfield with pride. Moss loves playing ball, hits extremely well, and possesses a very good throwing arm. David Murphy, compared to Johnny Damon, won the 2005 Red Sox Minor League Defensive Player of the Year. He will compete for the centerfield job with quickly rising star Jacoby Ellsbury, but no one will be complaining if they can split time between left and center. The Red Sox outfield will transform from a slow and battered trio to one of the fastest, strongest outfields in the Major Leagues. Defense is something that Red Sox fans haven't seen for years, and the near future may hold a change in that trend.

The Red Sox feature one star that will definitely still be here in 2009: David Ortiz. David is 29-years-old and just reaching his peak. The Red Sox absolutely must make it a priority to keep re-signing Ortiz until he stops his crusade against American League pitching, which hopefully won't be anytime soon. With Ortiz at the core of the Red Sox clubhouse and batting order, the other youngsters will fall in line. Ortiz, Arroyo, and Papelbon will be the veterans on this club by 2009. With a strong set of players around them, they will challenge for another World Series title with a smaller payroll.

Boston Red Sox fans have something to look forward to in the years to come. We have one of the best lists of prospects coming up and Theo Epstein is to thank for that. So please, ownership, re-sign Theo. Theo will bring us to the playoffs every year if we give him the tools and the personnel to do it. He can find great young talent and hire the coaching and assistants to help that talent grow into full blown stardom. The 2009 Red Sox will be tough to beat on the field and in the front office if we keep our young stars in town and our even younger ones on the right path to Boston.

Thursday, October 20, 2005

World Series

Well, we officially have a World Series on our hands, folks, and it's going to be a good one. No one could've asked for a better pair of teams to play each other for the ultimate prize in baseball. The Astros and White Sox have the type of stories that sports writers salivate over, broadcasters waste their breath on, and fans whine about the entire series. Let me tell you now: After last year's Series, no one wants to hear another story about droughts thanks to the Red Sox, whose media coverage flooded all of us with stories of curses and dashed hopes.

Nonetheless, it's about time the Astros and White Sox got to the World Series. The pitching in this matchup forces baseball purists around the world to watch the series. I have to mention that the names of the Astros' pitchers outweigh the names of the White Sox staff, but don't sleep on the ol' Black Sox. The Sox feature four of the brightest young pitching stars in the world. As I'm sure everyone knows by now, they ripped off four straight complete games, and then had the whole week off to rest. The White Sox starting staff will be ready for Saturday.

The one thing I have trouble trusting, however, is the White Sox bullpen. Granted they were very good all season, they haven't pitched in at least a week and, beyond the 2/3 of an inning thrown by Bobby Jenks, maybe even longer. Neal Cotts, Bobby Jenks, Cliff Politte, Dustin Hermanson, and the long reliever Orlando Hernandez make this bullpen a nice combination of experience and young talent. If the White Sox starters can throw seven innings, which they are clearly capable of doing, then the bullpen will be relied on for only two innings, ideally. I like their chances if they can get the same quality starts out of the big four as they did in the ALCS. They are going to be pitching against a lineup that plays similar baseball to their own lineup. If runners can pin point when White Sox starters will throw their off-speed pitches, they might be able to get a good jump and put pressure on AJ Pierzynski to throw some of them out.

The same goes the White Sox lineup. If they can push the envelope as they proved they could all season, they can steal runs and force mistakes on the Astros. Now, Andy Pettitte has the best move to the first in the Majors, Clemens has been around forever, and Oswalt throws fastballs practically every pitch, so stealing will become an art for White Sox players. I think both ball clubs in the end will rely on the long ball. The White Sox hit 200 homers this season, and the Astros have been winning games all postseason off home runs. A glaring characteristic of both teams is that neither of them walk very much. Playing against the high octane pitching staffs that the opponent has to offer can't bode well for impatient hitters, especially against crafty guys like Clemens, Oswalt, Contreras, or Buehrle.

Patience is the key in this series. Finding good pitches to steal bases, moving runners up, working for walks, and swinging defensively to push pitch counts all need to be stressed for either team to win. It will be hard to shell any of the starters in this World Series, so if either team can steal runs, then they need to capitalize on their chances to do so. I think every game will be under a combined score of 7. I doubt that this series will last any shorter than six games, and I really hope it goes all seven. If you give me a moment to collect myself, I can show you the probable matchups:

Game 1- Roger Clemens-Jose Contreras
Game 2- Andy Pettitte-Mark Buehrle
Game 3- Roy Oswalt-Jon Garland
Game 4- Brandon Backe-Freddy Garcia
Game 5- Clemens-Contreras
Game 6- Pettitte-Buehrle
Game 7- Oswalt-Garland

Are you kidding me? Look at those matchups! I know I will be glued to every pitch. I hope all of you get a chance to watch this World Series, because it will be one of most competitive, well-played Series in the history of baseball, and that's saying a lot. Please, watch the games, they will be worth it.

I am going to pick the Astros. I really think the chances for both teams are very good. I would certainly not be surprised if the White Sox won the series. I like the Astros pitching experience in the postseason, as Oswalt is gaining ground as one of the premier postseason clutch pitchers in the game. But hey, maybe this series will bring forth a White Sox postseason stud that will be remembered for generations, who knows? All I know is that I've never been so excited about a playoff series that doesn't have the Red Sox before this one.

Sunday, October 02, 2005

MLB Playoffs

Everyone and their sister is dying to find out my predictions for the playoffs in Major League Baseball. Kidding. But really, I am going to tell you what I think will happen, and then you can laugh at me.

The Yankees and Angels provide baseball fans with a reason to stay up late for baseball on the West Coast. This is a fantastic matchup featuring two very good ball clubs. The Angels pitching and fielding outweighs the Yankees, with Cy Young front-runner Bartolo Colon heading up a staff featuring strikeout-happy starters like Jarrod Washburn and John Lackey. There is no doubt the Angels will get good starts from Colon and Washburn, but can John Lackey avoid control problems against a patient and very potent Yankees offense? Kelvim Escobar, Scot Shields, K-Rod, and Brendan Donnelly are four names that generate fear inside of opposing managers. Hit early, Yankees, because after the 7th or even the 6th, it will get really hard to do much with your bats.

That being said, the Yankees feature a confident and surging Randy Johnson backed by three or four very competent supporting cast members. Questions hover around Aaron Small, Chien-Mien Wang, and Shawn Chacon as to whether or not they can perform as well as they did during the regular season. If any of these three put in a solid start in this short series, the Yankees can rely on Randy for two starts, then turn things over to always trusted Tom Gordon and Mariano Rivera. Hopefully for the Bronx Bombers, Mike Mussina will be healthy and effective, but much like Boston's Curt Schilling, this seasoned postseason veteran will be up to the task regardless of his health. I look at the Angels lineup and fear that it lacks the punch needed to beat the Yanks. The winner of this series will be the team that can get to its bullpen the earliest with a lead. I am going to fight against the grain of ESPN expert picks and say the Yankees will beat the Angels in five games.

The White Sox have worked so hard all season to get to this point, and they were rewarded by drawing the defending World Champs in the first round. I think this matchup favors the Red Sox for two reasons: 1) Jose Contreras is notoriously bad against the Sox and he has the ball in Game One and maybe Game Five if things get that far; and 2) The White Sox will need to win a game in Boston, which isn't going to happen easily in that environment. I would love to see Mark Buehrle and Jon Garland pitch well in Boston in October in front of those fans. The White Sox will need their home run power, which returned the final week of the season, combined with shutdown pitching. The Red Sox lineup boasts the most runs, best batting average, and the best on-base percentage in the Major Leagues. An interesting stat to throw around is walks: the Red Sox led all teams in walks, which can directly attribute to their highest OBP honor. That will challenge White Sox pitchers to attack the zone, and if they aren't careful, Red Sox hitters will find pitches up in the zone to drive, and score plenty of runs. I think the experience and the overwhelming home-field advantage in games three and four will push the Red Sox over the top against a very good White Sox team. Red Sox in four.

In the National League, it seems, to the naked eye, that there is no real competition to the Cardinals. The closest team, record-wise, to the Birds is Atlanta, a team that won ten fewer games than the Cardinals. The Astros, however, possess the kind of rotation that creates playoff memories. I cannot wait to see the Astros Big Three against the Cardinals and Pujols in the NLCS. Oh no, I gave away my picks.

The Cardinals will beat the Padres. The Padres are tougher than most think. Jake Peavy, Brian Lawrence, Woody Williams, and Pedro Astacio are all very good starters, plus Trevor Hoffman, Scott Linebrink, and Rudy Seanez out of the bullpen make the Padres a tough team to hit against in the later innings. If they are able to control the bats of Pujols, Edmonds, Eckstein, and the rest of the gang, the Cardinals might be in trouble. I don't think that will happen, the Cardinals are a tough, playoff-tested club with the drive to win. I like Tony LaRussa in most big game managerial situations. Albert Pujols is the best hitter in the National League and definitely has the supporting cast to make a run at the World Series. Chris Carpenter needs to be dynamite for his team this postseason and if he isn't, the Cards might be in trouble. If their battered staff can stay healthy throughout the playoffs and remain effective, they will be the team to beat. The Cardinals are too much for the Padres in terms of experience and hitting, and will win this series. The Padres will give up a fight, but I like the Cardinals in four.

The Astros snuck into the playoffs on the last day for the second time in two years. Andruw Jones carried the entire Braves club into the postseason with his big flies. The NL MVP (in my opinion) will need to keep hitting for his team to compete with a tough Astros rotation. The Astros can throw out three of the game's top pitchers continuously over the next month, and that makes them the most dangerous team in the playoffs. Clemens, Pettitte, and Oswalt will dominate the Braves lineup. Tim Hudson and John Smoltz are certainly worthy opponents for the new Big Three, and might be able to steal a win or two from them. The Astros really need to hit, and if they can put four or five runs on the board every night, they will be in good shape. The Braves can only hope that their young stars will keep playing hard and maybe smack around the Astros pitching. If they are patient, avoid mental mistakes, and stay focused in the batter's box, they have a legitimate shot at beating the Houston Astros. Nonetheless, I think the combination of Clemens, Pettitte, Oswalt, and Lidge will be enough to beat the Braves in five games.


ALCS
Based on my predictions, each LCS will feature the same matchups that we saw last year: Red Sox-Yankees and Cardinals-Astros. I won't lie, this year is even more appealing. The Red Sox will be defending World Champs, playing with that title for the first time since 1919. The Yankees will be eager to end the tragic memories from last season's finish. I really think the Red Sox starters will be up to the task. I like Jon Papelbon out of the 'pen, Timlin as a closer, and Francona has become adept at using Mike Myers and Chad Bradford in tough situations. The Yankees will be tough in any Randy Johnson start, but the Red Sox staff has so much more valuable playoff experience that may outlast the young Yankees staff behind Johnson and Mussina. This will be another high drama series, but I like the Red Sox because of the David Ortiz and Manny Ramirez combination. The Red Sox win another great series in seven games.

NLCS
The Cardinals need Chris Carpenter to be lights out every time he pitches. The Astros need four good starts out of seven tries from Roger Clemens, Andy Pettitte, and Roy Oswalt. And no, this is not the National League All-Stars' pitching versus the Cardinals. The Astros hitting might cost them some key opportunities to win games, but I think the experience from last year will help them overcome their hitting woes. The pitching of the Astros is just too much for any lineup other than the Yankees and the Red Sox. Something about Chris Carpenter's last few outings makes me wonder if he is ready for the playoffs. Matt Morris and Mark Mulder need to be dominant, but they are really banged up. Mulder has not been overly impressive in his last five starts and Morris has to continue his recent form. If the Cardinals can neutralize the Astros pitching, which will not be easy, they will win this series. But you cannot neutralize the kind of pitching that the Astros have, and for that reason, the Astros beat the Cardinals in six games.

WORLD SERIES
The 2005 World Series will feature two incredibly different teams: The pitching-dependent Astros versus the bat-relying Red Sox. The Red Sox have a little pitching to counter the Astros hitting woes. The Red Sox feature nine very difficult outs. The Astros are the only team in the Major Leagues capable of producing three guys that legitimately have a shot at shutting down this Red Sox offense. The matchups would feature classics, just imagine:

Clemens-Wells
Oswalt-Wakefield
Pettitte-Schilling

What? Schilling's not up to it? Are you kidding me? Curt Schilling will be in a different state when he is on this level. His health, his mental stability, his location, all that is tossed out the door when you put a guy like Schilling on the mound in a big game. In two huge games against the Yankees this September, Schilling tossed 14 innings, yielding just three earned runs. As long as he can be crafty against a lesser hitting team like the Astros, he will be effective in this setting.

I think it will come down to the Astros pitching and their effectiveness. If they can shut down this incredibly tough Red Sox offense, then they will be able to win the World Series. I think they can shut the Red Sox hitters down enough to win. The Houston Astros will win the 2005 World Series in seven games over the Boston Red Sox.

note--I finished very close to a lot of the final season records. My predictions at the All-Star Break were not too far off after all, except a few big misses like Minnesota and Florida.

Saturday, July 23, 2005

Mid-Season MLB Report Card: NL West

Major League Baseball's worst division features one bad team, and four mediocre ones. Which one will actually "win" the division? Who knows at this point. The Padres looked good, but then Adam Eaton got hurt. Jake Peavy and Brian Lawrence are very good pitchers, and will probably sustain their team's life into September and October, before the Fathers die out quickly in the playoffs. The Diamondbacks went out and spent money last offseason. They are four games below .500 on July 23rd. The Dodgers, at nine games worse in the loss column, are still in the hunt for the division. The Giants are terrible and Barry Bonds has been exposed. The Rockies make me grimace every time I decide to watch them. So, right now, this division reminds me of a bad Jerry Bruckheimer flick, which is not a good thing. At the end of the season, Major League Baseball will hire a group of lucky individuals to clean up the leftovers of the disgusting race that will finish the season. There will lots of throw up thanks to awful baseball, and maybe even some explosions, based on the bombs that opposing hitters will be smashing off every pitcher in this division, except for Jake Peavy.

San Diego Padres: To give you an idea of what is expected out of this team in 2005, I will refer you to my 2005 MVP Baseball game on Nintendo GameCube. The Padres are rated 13th and expected to be good. This season, in real life, they are a whopping 50 and 48 on July 23rd. Brian Giles is the only hitter producing in a lineup that holds some potentially devastating power. Phil Nevin, granted he approves of his trade, will leave a little bit of a hole, but Joe Randa will fill that in nicely, getting on base at a much more efficient clip than Nevin. Ryan Klesko and Ramon Hernandez have performed poorly out of the batter's box this season, and Khalil Greene isn't getting any better. I don't think these hitters can blame Petco Park, but they sure can blame their swings and their eyes.

The pitching staff of the San Diego Fathers features starters that really rev my engine (joking, only partly). Jake Peavy is definitely a stud and he will carry any rotation he is ever on until he retires. Brian Lawrence is a very good number two starter, and pitches effectively every night. Woody Williams is a reliable veteran and Tim Stauffer is a young guy that throws strikes. If only Adam Eaton was healthy. The bullpen has Chris Hammond, Trevor Hoffman, and Scott Linebrink, three good pitchers that will sustain late inning leads, if there ever are any. I wish that this team hit more so the guys that do the pitching can get more credit for their efficiency.
Final Season Record: 87-75; 1st place in the NL West

Arizona Diamondbacks: The Rattlesnakes have a great starting rotation. Brad Halsey, Brandon Webb, Shawn Estes, and Javier Vazquez have all consistently turned in quality starts in the first four months of the season. Russ Ortiz just isn't doing as well as they need him to do. Mike Koplove and Lance Cormier have done well out of the bullpen, and adding Claudio Vargas can only help. Hopefully Shawn Estes will return healthy and be as effective as he was prior to his injury; and Brandon Lyon will come back strong and close out games again for the Diamondbacks.

The Diamondbacks have a great set of players that can immediately help them make a run. The OBPs of Shawn Green, Craig Counsell, Luis Gonzalez, Troy Glaus, Tony Clark, and Chad Tracy, are all something to admire. They get on base and score pretty well. I think they will need even more production out of their big guns, Shawn Green and Troy Glaus, if they are going to overtake the Padres. I just can't see that happening unless the Diamondbacks get scorching hot.
Final Season Record: 86-76; 2nd place in the NL West

Los Angeles Dodgers: Don't look now, but Jeff Kent is delivering, again. I really think Kent has bolstered his resume to make the Hall of Fame with his continuous efforts for whatever team he plays on. Olmedo Saenz and Antonion Perez have done well in their newly found roles, and will continue to produce with Kent. I think Milton Bradley's return will help the Dodgers make a run at the division title. JD Drew needs to earn the money he's making, and he has been of late, unfortunately, Cesar Izturis and Jason Phillips aren't earning theirs. This lineup needs a major shakeup or else they will lose a few too many games to stay in contention.

Brad Penny, Derek Lowe, and Jeff Weaver have all been good this season. Odalis Perez, when he's healthy, is capable of very good starts as well. If only they had a good fifth starter, then the Dodgers might be a lot better off. They do not have Eric Gagne, who, despite being a closer, which is a position that I do not think is hugely important, is definitely the best reliever around and would help the Dodgers greatly if healthy. Yhency Brazoban has been mediocre as Gagne's replacement, and Giovanni Carrara just isn't hacking it. The bullpen is a lost cause, and the Dodgers can't really rely on anyone to bring home wins. Because of this, they need to make a move for Eddie Guardado, or another good reliever on the market, or they will not make up ground on the Padres.
Final Season Record: 81-81; 3rd place in NL West

San Francisco Giants: As much as I would love blaming the Giants' season on Barry Bonds, I can't. The lowest WHIP in the rotation is 1.41. No one can ever fully blame the pitching staff for losing, so we can't dish all the blame on them either, but Jason Schmidt just isn't what he was and the Giants need him to be what he was. Brett Tomko is not going to hold down any team's hitters for very long, Kirk Reuter isn't the 2002 World Series Kirk Reuter, and Noah Lowry stopped winning and started getting hit all over the park to places his fielders were not. Tyler Walker isn't going to shut too many people down late in the game, so hopefully the addition of LaTroy Hawkins will help the bullpen improve. This team's pitching needs a shot in the arm, pun intended, and fast.

Edgardo Alfonzo, Omar Vizquel, Moises Alou, and Ray Durham have all been solid at getting on base and scoring runs. And, no, this is not a review of the 1995 baseball season. The team has done well from the hitting standpoint despite missing Barry Bonds. But while they do miss Barry Bonds' bat, what they don't miss is a loud mouth, arrogant cheater who draws too much media attention and not enough praise from his teammates for his friendly nature. Well, the Giants need more pitching, less injuries, and Barry Bonds, none of which they are going to get this season. See you next April.
Final Season Record: 74-88; 4th place in the NL West

Colorado Rockies: I think the Rockies are fixable (see: Building a Rock-Solid Rockies Ballclub). As of right now, however, they are bad. They do carry a mean, young crop of players that will become very good Major Leaguers in a few years. Todd Helton is always good for a .300-clip or better, and a good .400-OBP to boot. Garrett Atkins, Brad Hawpe, Aaron Miles, JD Closser, Clint Barmes, and Matt Holliday, will all be featured prominently in a very good Rockies lineup in the next few years. Too bad Clint Barmes hurt himself, he was a shoo-in for NL Rookie of the Year. The Rockies will not do anything this year, but are preparing to make a run at success in the next few years with the lineup they are assembling.

Jeff Francis is one of the best young pitchers baseball has to offer. Mix him with Jamey Wright, Jason Jennings (just recently hurt), and Chin-hui Tsao, and the Rockies have a good young staff to work with. The acquisition of Zach Day will help the rotation hopefully this season, but more definitely next season. Brian Fuentes is a very capable late-inning reliever, and only needs a little help from Marcos Carvajal and David Cortes to make the Rockies a good late-inning team. Shawn Chacon doesn't fit in with the Rockies, and Byung-Hyun Kim doesn't fit in with baseball. Those two need to go before anything can improve for the Rockies. Hope remains bright for the future, but dismal for the present.
Final Season Record: 68-94; last place in the NL West...Not something you brag about!

This division is by far the worst in Major League Baseball. At least it will be interesting to see who emerges from the sludge that is the NL West. The Padres have the pitching to win the division, and I think they will. The Diamondbacks need to stay healthy and really catch fire, and if they do, they can make a run at the title. The Dodgers need more out of their hitters, and then, and only then, they might contend. The poor Giants need Barry Bonds. And who could forget the lowly Rockies, who without Todd Helton and Jeff Francis, would be sold to another owner for cheaper than the US bought Alaska (which was only $24, by the way). Thanks for reading, and be sure to check out my playoff predictions.

Mid-Season MLB Report Card: NL Central

The NL Central is a done deal as I write this post. The St. Louis Cardinals have dominated to this point and will continue to do so until the end of the season. There is no question in my mind that they are the frontrunners in contention for a World Series ring and can only improve upon their dismal performance in last year's Classic. The Cubs need Nomar Garciaparra to be anything better than average, and they don't even have him healthy. Their pitching health remains questionable and the only reason they have more wins than losses is because of Derrek Lee and Aramis Ramirez. The Astros have surged back into familiar territory, doing the same thing they did last year: falling way below .500, then catching fire and speeding past the traffic in the bottom of the NL Central. The Milwaukee Brewers have pitched their way to a respectable record, just a few games below .500, but are not threatening anyone at this point. And the poor Reds and Pirates are feeding from the same tube, trying to fill up on wins, and avoid choking down losses and sitting in the basement.

St. Louis Cardinals: The Redbirds have one of the top three hitters in the league in Albert Pujols, the best 2-5 stretch of hitters in the league, and a good pitching rotation from 1 to 5. Right now, the only team capable of playing with them come October, in my opinion, would be the Red Sox. I can't say enough how dominant Pujols has been these past few years, and mixed in with Edmonds, Walker, Rolen, Reggie Sanders, and now a dynamic middle infield hitting duo of Grudzielanek and David Eckstein, the Cards just hit and hit and hit again. I see their offense keeping pace and hitting with the best of 'em. Don't expect this team to slow down as long as they are healthy.

The pitching staff carries five very good starters. Chris Carpenter's stats blow my mind, Matt Morris has been effective yet again, and Mulder, Suppan, and Marquis all hold down prominent roles at the end of the rotation. Julian Tavarez, Al Reyes, Ray King, and Jason Isringhausen make the Cards' bullpen great. They have quality pitching from start to finish, and will finish with Major League Baseball's best record as a result.
Final Season Record: 106-56; 1st place in the NL Central

Houston Astros: Winning regularly since the beginning of July, the Astros find themselves smack dab in the middle of a Wild Card race in which they are dangerous contenders. I say Wild Card because I think the division is decided already, barring any tragic slew of injuries that sends the Cardinals into a downward spiral only a Ronald Reagan-budget could compare to. Morgan Ensberg has put together an unexpected but solid run thus far, Willy Tavares has proven to be a great addition, and Lance Berkman has already impacted the team since his return. The Astros offense is fueled by those three, with Craig Biggio also featured prominently. This team should be tough to put out down the stretch, and the rest of their hitters will improve now that Berkman is back in the middle of the lineup.

Pitching is a strong point for the Astros. Soon-to-be 43-year-old Roger Clemens pitches so well for his team that it's hard to believe that he has any losses. With a WHIP of 0.96 and 123 strikeouts in 135 innings, the Rocket has neatly placed himself amongst the Goliaths of the game. Roy Oswalt continues to prove his excellence on the mound, hurling himself to a 1.08 WHIP, and limiting hitters to only 29 walks through 149 2/3 innings. Andy Pettitte has made a nice return to the rotation, pitching well and feeling good, and Brandon Backe has proven to be a very solid fourth starter. If only the 'Stros had a fifth starter... Anyway, the bullpen looks good only when Chad Qualls, Dan Wheeler, or Brad Lidge are on the mound, otherwise, they need a little help. The bullpen is not a big enough problem to hurt the Astros as the season progresses, however, and I see them continuing their winning ways.
Final Season Record: 90-72; 2nd place NL Central

Chicago Cubs: The Cubs just aren't good. They have great names, but none of them play. Greg Maddux and Carlos Zambrano have anchored the staff all year, and the recent return of Mark Prior will hopefully help them to improve. Kerry Wood decided not to show up for the 2005 season, never really being healthy, ever. Jerome Williams is a nice addition to the rotation, and Glendon Rusch and Ryan Dempster have been quality in spot starts and relief roles. Sergio Mitre isn't capable of handling the innings he's been throwing, Mike Wuertz has been mediocre at best, and the Cubs just don't have a closer. I don't think the closer position is really as important as "insiders" say they are, so the Cubs should be more focused on ratcheting up the roster positions held by relievers that come in with men on base in the middle to late innings.

Derrek Lee has been a great player all season. He is the man in Chicago. Aramis Ramirez is turning into the beast everyone thought he'd become, and only shows signs of improving. Todd Walker's return will only help the team, as I have always been a fan of Todd, and know he is capable of producing in the batter's box. Jeremy Burnitz has been a nice addition to the team as well. That being said, the Cubs really only feature four good hitters. I don't like the rest of the lineup, and they can't win with them. Poor Corey Patterson just hasn't had a season to remember, and without him producing the way he can, the Cubs definitely feel a void. I just don't think this team is healthy or good enough to win too many games.
Final Season Record: 84-78; 3rd place in NL Central

Milwaukee Brewers: You have to love Brady Clark, Geoff Jenkins, and Lyle Overbay, and their wonderful OBPs. Carlos Lee started off hot, but has really faltered lately. The Brew Crew seem to be maybe one or two bona fide bats away from being a solid hitting club. When you combine that with their pitching, they will be good in the future, I guarantee it. Rickie Weeks and Prince Fielder are young, hot prospects that are going to produce and score for the Brewers for years to come, granted the Brewers front office can hold on to them. Lyle Overbay, if he stays, will continue to be a strong presence in the middle of the lineup. I like this lineup in 2006 and even better in 2007.

The Brewers have a great pitching staff, plain and simple. They have low WHIPs and a low amount of walks. These guys get it done, night in and night out. Ben Sheets will hopefully return to normal now that he has recovered from that awful inner ear infection. I love Doug Davis' stuff; mix in Victor Santos and Chris Capuano and this club has four very good starters. Matt Wise and Derek Turnbow are beasts out of the bullpen, delivering the goods every night. Julio Santana has proven to be a quality guy in the middle and late innings, so that's three good relievers that the Brewers can use. Hopefully they can mold some more of their young up-and-comers into crafty starters and relievers to fill out the staff. Again, this team is going to be good no later than 2008, I guarantee it.
Final Season Record: 77-85; 4th place in the NL Central

Cincinnati Reds: Dear Eric Milton, STOP THROWING MEATBALLS! The pitching of the Reds rotation boggles the mind of any fan, let alone a 19-year-old kid like myself. These guys just don't pitch well. With the exception of Aaron Harang's great season thus far, and a very mediocre Brandon Claussen, the Reds starting staff is just plain bad. Paul Wilson has murdered my friend Alex's fantasy team, bringing a slovenly 1.83 WHIP, while lasting only 84 to 85 pitches per game. At least Ramon Ortiz has been ordinary at best (pause for laughter). Eric Milton, as mentioned previously, has recently applied for a chef job at the Olive Garden, so he can earn his keep serving up meatballs in a more accepting environment. The bullpen, anchored by Kent Mercker, Dave Weathers, and Matt Belisle (pause for laughter, again), is really just not even mediocre. The Reds are not going to win any 3 to 2 games.

The Reds' lineup features several quality young hitters. I love Sean Casey, Felipe Lopez, Ryan Freel, and Adam Dunn. Why, you might ask? Because they get on base! It's a shame that Joe Randa has parted ways, because he is another strong OBP producer. Everyone always complains about Adam Dunn's strikeouts, but when you look elsewhere in his stat column, you see 71 walks in 317 at bats, you see 27 homers, and you see a thrilling 4.27 pitches seen per at bat. I like Adam Dunn because he studies pitchers, takes pitches, and doesn't huff and puff like Barry Bonds when he gets walked. If only the Reds could pitch as well as they get on base. Notice that I didn't say "as well as they hit," for all you youngsters out there.
Final Season Record: 64-98; an awful last place in the NL Central

Pittsburgh Pirates: As much as I love the Bucs, they are just not good this year, or mediocre for that matter. The Bucs have a lineup that features a very good young player by the name of Jason Bay. Jason Bay is blossoming into one of the finer young players around, and it will be interesting to see if the Pirates can hold onto him after his contract runs out, and his value rises. Matt Lawton's $7.75-million contract needs to leave, and the Pirates need to find a cheaper, better replacement for him, which won't be very hard. Rob Mackowiak has turned in some solid performances, along with Humberto Cota, Jose Castillo, Freddy Sanchez, and Bobby Hill. I think the talent is definitely there, if Jack Wilson shows everyone that this season is an aberration from the norm, and Jason Bay sticks around, the Pirates will be good again. The Pirates have some good, young talent, so it'll be interesting to watch them play and see how things turn out.

Oliver Perez has been very disappointing this season. A 1.64 WHIP and a poor strikeout count has left many in Pittsburgh wondering what happened to the once promising young Mexican. Zach Duke has torched the Majors since his promotion, and he looks like a major horse that the Bucs can count on. I think Josh Fogg and Dave Williams are good middle rotation guys that will be solid for a few years. The Pirates need to keep either Mark Redman or Kip Wells, because those two are the veterans that the younger starters need to learn from in order to succeed. If they can hold onto Rick White, Mike Gonzalez, Solomon Torres, and Brian Meadows, the Bucs will have a good bullpen to draw from. Jose Mesa has been nothing short of precisely what the doctor ordered in Pittsburgh, but he is rumored to be on the way out, so the Bucs will only be able to reap the benefits of his presence for a little while longer. This team can be good, they just need the right pieces, and to stop relying on Daryle Ward for power.
Final Season Record: 71-91; 5th place in the NL Central

The St. Louis Cardinals are the team to beat, not only this division, but in the National League. They are the cream of the crop, and will continue to deliver the goods come October. I am predicting that they will win the 2005 World Series, and it's only July, that's how good they are. The Astros might sneak up and win the Wild Card. I think they will stick around and get hot just like last year, and finish strong in second. The Cubs need a new trainer or something, because right now, they are dropping like flies, and it seems like an annual story. Maybe the curse is real. All I know is, the Cubs aren't going anywhere fast, and Derrek Lee and Aramis Ramirez are definitely not to blame for it. The Brew Crew and Pirates are going to be good in 2007 and probably after that as well. As long as these two smaller market teams can afford their young stars, they will find themselves in the thick of things for years to come. The Reds are the Reds, what else can I say? In order to give this post the proper finishing, I have to mention that Eric Milton is awful.

Mid-Season MLB Report Card: NL East

First of all, I'd like to recognize Lance Armstrong as one of the greatest athletes of all time after his latest domination of the Tour De France. Nonetheless, this is a baseball post, so let's talk baseball. The NL East features five good teams all within 5 1/2 games of each other as of July 23. The Braves, surging of late, seem to be capable leaders of the division with their team now recovering nicely from the flurry of injuries that knocked them down to .500. The Washington Nationals, Major League Baseball's story of the year so far, are currently tied with the Braves. They possess a staff of good pitchers but can only hope that Livan Hernandez's problems minimize. The Phillies continue to show that they are a good team disguised as a mediocre ballclub. With their second surge this season, they find themselves only 4 games back in the division. The Mets have produced an extremely disappointing season after their activities in the 2004-2005 off-season. The Marlins, located at the center of every trade rumor in the entire league, find themselves at .500 despite a great pitching staff. This division will feature prominently one of the best races around the league. I think it will come down to the final weekend.

Atlanta Braves: Andruw Jones has single-handedly carried the Braves' offense this year. He continues to show an amazing ability to go big when he needs to. With a rotation that carries names like Smoltz, Hudson, Hampton, Thomson, Ramirez, and even Jorge Sosa, the Braves, as usual, remain a tough team to hit against. Leo Mazzone has maintained his reputation as baseball's finest pitching coach. As long as their pitching staff can stay healthy, the Braves will get good starts pretty much every night, and contend for the division for the rest of the season.

Hitting-wise, the Braves cannot fully depend on Andruw Jones all year. Brian Jordan needs to start swinging more efficiently (when he's healthy) and Rafael Furcal needs to get on base more often. The Braves do not strikeout a whole lot, and that means that they either put bad pitches into play, or see a lot of pitches but still get out a lot. I would probably say it's the latter, and we can only expect the Braves hitting to improve as the season moves on. I expect this team to win the division, again, thanks to the overwhelming trio of underperforming teams that will kill themselves as the season progresses.
Final Season Record: 91-71; 1st place in the NL East

Washington Nationals: The Montreal Expos disguised as a different team have found a new home in Washington, D.C. The Nationals have produced the feel-good story of the year, as Roger Ebert would say, and they continue to win. Despite the middle infield's lack of hitting, (thank you Cristian Guzman and your .190 batting average paired with a .231 OBP) the Nats find themselves in the thick of an NL East showdown in the later days of July. Jose Guillen and Brad Wilkerson carry this team's offense, and could use Nick Johnson, who can't seem to stay healthy ever, to provide a third bat. Otherwise, Jose Vidro has produced a disappointing season, and the Nationals are lucky to have good pitching to cancel out the bad hitting.

The whole Livan Hernandez situation worries me, and I think it could be problematic if the Nats want to contend for the division. John Patterson has casually become one of the better pitchers in the NL, and Esteban Loaiza, much to my surprise, has put together a good season as well. I really like Chad Cordero, and picking up Mike Stanton should help the Nats' young bullpen. I think this team will miraculously manage to stay in the hunt for the title, and definitely challenge for the Wild Card. I guess name changes really do make a difference; it's gotta be the jerseys.
Final Season Record: 88-74; 3rd place in the NL East

Philadelphia Phillies: Despite the fact that Vicente Padilla is awful, the Phils have a good rotation. Brett Myers continues to produce quality starts, Cory Lidle has been solid, and Wolf and Lieber are putting together seasons we have come to expect from them. The lineup holds four or five good hitters. Bobby Abreu, after his amazing Home Run Derby performance, can only hope to improve upon another solid year in the batter's box. I liked moving Polanco to give Chase Utley more time, and it has paid off. Jimmy Rollins is hitting .277 but only holds a .319 OBP. Thank god Pat Burrell has finally come around, the sight of another slew of batteries flying into leftfield would be unbearable. And how about Kenny Lofton, this guy always seems to be producing somewhere new each year, but producing nonetheless.

The pitching staff, as aforementioned, has been decent thus far. I like Brett Myers as one of the better young starters in the league, and Lidle, Wolf, and Lieber also show themselves to be solid. If Billy Wagner stays, which seems more probable now that the Phils are back in the playoff hunt, the Phillies will have a strong ace in the hole out of the bullpen. I like Aaron Fultz and Ryan Madson filling the innings in between the starter and Wagner, and I think they will keep the Phils in contention for a lot of late inning, close games. I like the Phillies lineup and pitching, and I think they are legitimate contenders for the division.
Final Season Record: 89-73; 2nd place in the NL East

New York Mets: Carlos Beltran may be hitting .265, he may be carrying a .316 OBP, and he may be the biggest waste of money in Major League history. I have to say, the hype over this guy was really only applicable to the 2004 playoffs. Otherwise, he has yet to really do much. Thanks to Cliff Floyd and David Wright, however, the Mets have more wins than losses. I still can't believe that Mike Piazza made the All-Star Game, with his .259 average and a .319 OBP. It's safe to say that Jose Reyes, Kaz Matsui, Doug Mientkiewicz, and Mike Cameron have all disappointed the Mets' faithful this year. I suspect that there will be major changes again this upcoming off-season.

Throwing the baseball usually is one of the Mets' main problems at this time every year. This year, however, is different. Pedro Martinez has put together amazing numbers (0.84 WHIP, 144 K's in 139 IP) and Kris Benson has been good as well. Package those two with Victor Zambrano's surprisingly solid season so far, and the Mets have a good trio of starters. Tom Glavine just isn't what he was and Kazuhisa Ishii can't seem to find the strike zone very often. Roberto Hernandez has pitched extremely well, not only in my 2005 MVP Baseball season on GameCube, but also in real life. Braden Looper is better than people think, and the addition of Danny Graves should help the bullpen. I think a lot of people are wondering, "What's wrong with the Mets?" And I am, too. What's wrong with the Mets?
Final Season Record: 83-79; 4th place in the NL East

Florida Marlins: AJ Burnett: an Oriole? A Red Sock? A White Sock? A Yankee? Does anyone notice that the Marlins are .500? Dontrelle Willis might be the best pitcher under 30 in the pros, but everyone's talking about Burnett and Lowell. With Brian Moehler putting together a solid season, and Josh Beckett doing his thing (when he's healthy that is), the Marlins have three good pitchers. But AJ Burnett has put together a great season (a WHIP of just 1.27 and 120 K's in 124 2/3 innings), and has fueled all Marlin talk to hover around him. Todd Jones has been wonderful in relief, but Guillermo Mota and Jim Mecir have failed to finish off games effectively. The starters are very good, but they need a fifth starter, and someone to immediately replace Burnett when he moves, or else the Marlins will finish the year looking awfully bad.

Luis Castillo, Carlos Delgado, Miguel Cabrera, Paul Lo Duca, and Juan Encarnacion are all hitting the ball and getting on base at frenzied paces. But Juan Pierre and Mike Lowell are not. I thought Paul Lo Duca should have caught for the NL All-Stars, as he has put together another good season behind the plate. Miguel Cabrera has to be one of the scariest 22-year-old hitters in the history of baseball at this point, and Carlos Delgado continues to just be ferocious. Poor Mike Lowell is being shopped around like a used part at an auto show, with his blistering .280 OBP and 5 home runs. Remember that year Mike Lowell had a .365 OBP and 27 home runs? Oh, you mean last year? What has happened to Mr. Lowell is beyond me, but I can say this: Pitchers are throwing high fastballs and getting him out, so maybe we can blame good scouting for his demise this season. Nonetheless, I am surprised that the Marlins aren't better off in the win column at this point, and it seems like they aren't getting better, but, but, they are still very capable of getting hot and catching the teams at the top of the division.
Final Season Record: 76-86; last place in the NL East

The Braves have the pitching staff, the coaching staff, and Andruw Jones' staff, all things that help any team win a division. I think the Braves will win the division in a close race that ends after the 162nd game. The Nationals and the Phillies are legitimate threats to take the division, and I think the Mets and Marlins are as well if they get hot. It will be interesting to see if the Nationals melt down after their polished play for the first four months of the season, and we'll enjoy seeing how the Phillies finish out another antagonizing season. I like the Braves because they don't have as many question marks as the rest of the division, so as long as they are healthy and a few bats wake up, they will be the winners of this good, but not great, division.

Friday, July 22, 2005

Mid-Season MLB Report Card: AL West

The AL West features one good team and three very, very mediocre ones. As usual, any team with Vladimir Guerrero has a shot to win. But the Angels also have Garret Anderson, Bartolo Colon, Jarrod Washburn, and Francisco Rodriguez. The A's continue to show that they are just getting warmed up. Winning 25 of their last 33, the Athletics' offense has picked up, thanks to Bobby Kielty's bat, among others. Combine the hitting with their already very solid pitching, it comes as no surprise to see the A's winning more games of late. The Rangers seem to be headed down the wrong path towards another fizzling season. They have such a powerful lineup but they don't get on base enough. And, oh, the Mariners, as my good friend Andrew reported from a recent visit to Toronto, the M's look like they are straight out of "Bad News Bears." Yeah, yeah, that's the second reference I've made to the movie, I know. It was a good flick, the first one was anyway. Nonetheless, I will review this division:

The Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim...or is it the California Angels...or the Anaheim Angels...or the Angels in the Outfield...okay, okay, on to the review: Vladimir Guerrero. I mean really, do I need to talk about the Angels any more? The guy is a beast: he's a free-swinging, lovable character that gets dirty when he has to and shows up to play every night. In my opinion, he is the best all-around player in the Bigs. I do believe Manny Ramirez is the best hitter in Major League Baseball, but Vlad is right on his tail. Somehow, he finds a way to hit that changeup that you bounced off the infield grass before reaching home plate.

Anyway, enough about Vlad. The Angels have a good starting rotation and mix in very good relief. K-Rod is amazing, simply put. This team looks to be the clear favorite to take the division, and be a force, again, in the playoffs. Call it another MVP season for Vlad, good innings out of the starters, and strong finishes to each game. The Angels are better than they were last year when the Red Sox rolled them in the ALDS. Look out America, the West Coast is respresentin'!
Final Season Record: 96-66; First place AL West.

Oakland Athletics of the Bay Area of California: As I mentioned earlier, Bobby Kielty and the A's are flaming hot. The Athletics, surely to Billy Beane's enjoyment, have a very low team WHIP, which makes them capable of competing in every game. They have great, young talent in Rich Harden, Danny Haren, Joe Blanton, Huston Street, Justin Duchscherer, Kirk Saarloos, and now even Joe Kennedy. If this staff stays hot, they will be extremely dangerous for the rest of the season and hurt a lot of batters' averages.

The hitting needs to create more. Bobby Kielty and Mark Ellis can't carry an offense, and Eric Chavez continues to disappoint. Jason Kendall has struggled since moving to the American League, and shows no signs of improving. The whole team has to stay hot and hit when it counts, creating the runs that Billy Beane emphasized the importance of in Moneyball. Anyway, I think the A's will stay hot and continue to creep up the ladder of the AL. But next year is a year that will feature them more prominently in October.
Final Season Record: 88-74; 2nd place in the AL West

Texas Rangers of Arlington, Texas; Home of the Rangers: The Rangers lineup features seven, yes, seven, players with 15 homers or more. David Dellucci, however, is the only one with a good OBP. No one on the Rangers roster with more than 10 at bats has walked more than they have struck out. That says to me that the Gauchos swing for the fences...a lot, in fact, try every at bat. Anyway, they still score lots of runs, too bad their pitching is not good.

Everyone talks about Chan Ho Park's turnaround, but I ask, what turnaround? The guy has a WHIP of 1.63. So basically, when Park is on the mound, he gets into lots of jams, gives up some runs, but his team outhits the other team more often than not, giving him an 8-4 record. Kenny Rogers and Chris Young are the only good pitchers in the rotation. I just don't think this staff will ever carry anyone to more than a slightly above average season on a yearly basis. This year is no different.
Final Season Record: 85-77; 3rd place AL West

The Seattle Mariners Located on the Puget Sound Near That Place I Used to Eat Dinner at When I Was in Washington State: Now, now, I know what you are thinking..."Spending so much money on Adrian Beltre and Richie Sexson hasn't helped the Mariners out at all this year." Well, you're right. Of course, it doesn't help that Joel Piniero is plain bad this year, along with Gil Meche, Ryan Franklin, and Aaron Sele. Jamie Moyer, and his 14 mph fastball, is the only quality pitcher on the staff, and even he has a mediocre WHIP. Eddie Guardado and Ron Villone are good bullpen pitchers, but Guardado should be headed east, so that leaves us with...Shigetoshi Hasegawa (cue laughter).

Adrian Beltre? More like Adrian "Swing-way...too hard and miss a lot." Granted, Miguel Olivo has more strikeouts than hits, the Mariners don't pay poor Miguel the big bucks to hit. Richie Sexson has struckout 106 times this year. I will type it again to reinforce the facts: 106 strikeouts in 94 games. *Double takes* Ichiro is only hitting .306. Beltre is at .259 with 10 home runs. Boy, the bats are alive in Seattle! The Mariners can't win if their pitching is bad and their hitters don't hit. And right now, that is what is happening in Seattle.
Final Season Record: 70-92; Last Place in the AL West

It will be fun to watch Vlad produce more magic as the season winds down. The A's have an exciting young staff that will be just as fun to see. I think it might actually be a good race for a while, but only if the Athletics get really hot, and the Angels slow down. The Angels have built a great lead and should hold onto it. The California Orange County Angels of Los Angeles, Anaheim, Garden Grove, and surrounding areas, will be contenders come October. The Mariners are not going up anytime soon, and the Rangers need to fix the ol' pitchin' staff before any magic happens in Arlington.

Thursday, July 14, 2005

Mid-Season MLB Report Card: AL Central

The AL Central has shaped itself out to look like it will be a landslide, with the White Sox running away with the title. I do not think that will be the case. The Twins have the experience of making the playoffs and know what it takes to get there; the White Sox seem to be in good standing at every All-Star Break then find themselves behind without much of a chance by the end of the season. But this year is different. The White Sox are the best team in baseball. They have given up the least amount of runs in the entire league at this point, and still hit the best out of all the AL Central clubs (based solely on runs scored). The Twins desperately need to get hot and hope that the White Sox slow down a little bit if they are ever going to catch them. On to the teams:

Chicago White Sox: Mark Buehrle, Jon Garland, Jose Contreras, and Freddy Garcia have all been great for the Sox. Orlando Hernandez, despite his high WHIP and poor K/BB ratio, still has managed to hold a 7-2 record at the break. Their starting pitching mixed with the great work of the bullpen, despite the bloated numbers of Shingo Takatsu and Luis Vizcaino, has proven to be a dominant combination. The reason they are so good so far is because of their pitching, giving up the fewest runs and having three starters with WHIPs under 1.20. That being said, they need to continue this trend of well-pitched, low scoring games because the bats are definitely not going to crush opponents for the next few months.

Hitting looks like a problem for the White Sox when reading the stat sheets for their hitters. Not one hitter in the starting lineup has an average over .295 or an OBP over .370. But if you look at the RBIs and their distribution, it shows that the entire lineup is capable of bringing in runs. They get runs when they need them, which is not very often the way the pitching staff has performed. At the current pace, the White Sox will win 107 games this season. I find that very unlikely, given the fact that their pitching can't be expected to be completely healthy all season. It should be mentioned that the White Sox are only 17-17 against teams with .501 winning percentages or better; whereas they are a staggering 34-8 against teams .500 or below. A telling stat considering they have yet to play their 13 games against the Yankees and the Red Sox. They are still going to be good, no doubt, and people should expect them to be in the thick of the battle for the World Series. Grade: A+
Final Season Record: 101-61; Winner of the AL Central

Minnesota Twins: The Twins are currently 10 games over .500 but nine out of first in the AL Central. Usually, any team with a record that hovers around .500 has been capable of winning the division; but this year is definitely different. The Twins are on the verge of losing their superiority in the AL Central, at least for the time being. The Twinnies have managed to be successful in recent years despite ever really having a big bat. They are always fast baserunners, efficient fielders, well-managed, and stocked with pitching.

The pitching staff has an incredibly solid K/BB ratio, a telling stat of their effectiveness, and yet, with the obvious exception of Johan Santana, lack overpowering WHIPs. These two pitching stats are the most important in my opinion, and are telling of the pitching's efficiency. The stats show that the Twins starters give up lots of hits, which could mean one of two things: a) their fielders aren't getting to as many balls as they used to, or b) their pitches are being hit in places that are unreachable by their fielders. I would assume its the latter. They need Kyle Lohse and Joe Mays to kick things into a higher gear, Brad Radke to stop giving up home runs, and score more runs to support Johan Santana. The lineup must keep getting hits in the right spots, and the pitching has to work things to a higher level, otherwise, the division is gone, and the Twins enter the fight with the Red Sox, Yankees, Orioles, Indians, A's, and Rangers for the AL Wild Card. Grade: B
Final Season Record: 91-71; 2nd in the AL Central.

Cleveland Indians: The Indians are a stocked, young team that carries more talent under the age of 30 than almost every other team. That being said, it seems like things are just not entirely there yet, and the Indians might need this year as a stepping stone to next year. The hitting has been above average, but not quite to where it needs to be. Travis Hafner's late surge, mixed with the gem, Grady Sizemore, makes it look like maybe the Indians will be better off in the second half nonetheless.

Pitching wise, the Indians really need lower WHIPs from their starters, and bigger things from C.C. Sabathia. Kevin Millwood has turned out to be the best starter in a rotation that features a bona fide ace in Sabathia, two great youngsters in Jake Westbrook and Cliff Lee, and a decent five starter in Scott Elarton. Arthur Rhodes, Danny Riske, and Bob Wickman have all turned in high quality first halves, and if they keep it up, they will keep their team in a lot of ball games. Hopefully for the Indians, Sabathia will heat up and carry the staff, Millwood will be the 2-starter that lots of AL hitters don't want to see on Saturdays, and Hafner and Sizemore will continue to carry the hitting load. These guys need to really get hot if they want to catch the White Sox, but its not entirely out of the question. The young talent may find its groove and go on a big win streak, who knows, but as of now, they do not look like a playoff team. Grade: C
Final Season Record: 87-75; 3rd place in the AL Central.

Detroit Tigers: Considering the fact that the Tigers were one of the worst teams in MLB history just 2 seasons ago, they have done incredibly well this year. Brandon Inge has turned in a great performance in the first half of the season, making the subtle switches in his swing necessary to become the hitter he can be. If Carlos Guillen was healthy enough to play everyday, the Tigers would probably have won perhaps 3 to 6 more games. The biggest hitting problem for the Tigers is that no one walks. Nobody on this team gets on base efficiently or sees a lot of pitches, and that means they are impatient and more likely to swing at bad stuff early in the count. They cannot use Dmitri Young and Carlos Guillen effectively if they do not have any on base for the two key hitters on the team to bring home.

The four main starters: Bonderman, Maroth, Johnson, and Robertson, have all been great this season. They do not walk too many batters, and that keeps the margin for error at a more manageable level. With young Justin Verlander finding his name in headlines as the leading prospect in all of baseball, the Tigers have something to look forward to in years to come. Wil Ledezma is still improving his already decent curveball and change up that will eventually mix well with his fastball, provided he starts keeping it down in the zone. As long as the Tigers keep working on their bullpen--that has some quality young players-- they will be a team to be reckoned with in the next few years. Grade: A-
Final Season Record: 80-82; 4th place in the AL Central.

Kansas City Royals: If there is one team that can compete with the Devil Rays, its the Royals. Angel Berroa doesn't get on base, Mike Sweeney is never healthy, and Terrence Long shouldn't be starting for any Major League team. That's only a third of the lineup, the other two/thirds are just too young or too inexperienced to be expected to bring in much more than the 30 wins they have right now. This team cannot win, ever, without using their prospects more effectively.
When it comes to pitching, the Royals staff is just plain awful. They do not have five starters, and the other four have WHIPs over 1.40, something that can only mean bad things for a team, especially one without hitting. Jose Lima is running on fumes in Kansas City, and needs to be a long reliever/5th starter for a contender to really bring much to the table. Having seen Ambiorix Burgos in person, I believe he will become a good Major League pitcher, but not in 2005; try maybe 2007 or 2008. Poor Zach Greinke looks exactly like Jeremy Bonderman in 2003, making plenty of pitches but losing every night. Grade: F
Final Season Record: 62-100; good for dead rotten last in the AL Central.

The second half of the season will eventually run its course, and at the end of the tunnel, the White Sox will be crowned AL Central Champions. The Twins will definitely be in the running if they catch fire, and at least have a shot at the Wild Card. The Indians really need Sabathia to come around for anything to happen, otherwise, they will ride in the backseat as the third member of the AL Central family. The Tigers will be great in 2007, but this year they are still working their way up, and should be a tough team to beat in Detroit. The Royals are just plain awful, and can only hope that they only lose 100 games. So there you have it, the White Sox win, and the Twins contend for second best.