Preseason rankings announced

The ESPN/USA Today coaches' poll was released today. Here is the top 10, with the top-ranking votes in parentheses:

1. North Carolina (31)
   
2. Connecticut
3. Louisville
4. UCLA
5. Duke
6. Pitt
7. Michigan State
8. Texas
9. Notre Dame
10. Purdue

Rest of the Top 25, in order: Gonzaga, Memphis, Tennessee, Oklahoma, Arizona State, Miami (Fla.), Marquette, Georgetown, Florida, Davidson, USC, Wisconsin, Kansas, Wake Forest, Villanova.

Reactions
-- This fits in perfectly with the Big East coaches' poll of conference rankings, with Pitt placing third behind UConn and Louisville. Both powerhouses have some major players this year. And with great coaching to led 'em, it's going to be tough for Pitt to surpass these two squads.

-- North Carolina is not a shocker. If the Tar Heels' top ranking surprised you, you've been living under a rock for the past eight months. UNC returns its Big Three -- Tyler Hansbrough (who is the frontrunner for player of the year), Ty Lawson and Wayne Ellington -- and its key role players, too, like Danny Green, Marcus Ginyard (out for eight weeks with a stress fracture in his foot), Deon Thompson and Bobby Frasor. Oh yeah, and don't forget coach Roy Williams's absolutely sick recruiting class. Expect to see that crew make an impact right away, even with diminished minutes.

-- After those two things, the first thing I noticed was four Big East teams in the top 10. Four! Three more Beast teams are rated 11 through 25. That means seven Top 25 teams to start Big East commish Mike Tranghese's last year. What a way to go out, huh? But it doesn't end there ... Syracuse and West Virginia are also receiving votes. That's probably why the Big East is on TV so much this year.

-- Here's the breakdown by major conferences (ranked, then receiving votes):

1. Big East: 7, with two receiving votes
2. ACC: 4, with two receiving votes
3. Pac-10: 3, with three receiving votes
4. Big 12: 3, with two receiving votes
5. Big 10: 3, with one receiving votes
6. SEC: 2, with three reciving votes

-- It wouldn't be preseason hoops if I didn't make grandiose predictions that probably won't come true, so let's do it ...

Title game
North Carolina vs. UCLA, UNC wins

Final Four
UNC, UCLA, Louisville, UConn (way to go out on a limb, Jeff)

Elite 8
UNC, UCLA, Louisville, UConn, Duke, Michigan State, Purdue, Gonzaga

-- So where does Pitt fit in? I think the Panthers get a 3 seed and drop out after the Sweet 16. I was high on the team after the NCAA Tournament earlier this year, but that love has slowly trickled away. Don't get me wrong, Pitt will still be huge. I have the Panthers finishing 24-7, with the inevitable trip to the Big East tournament title game.

So why isn't this Pitt team different?
Well, it's different in a lot of ways, but not enough ways. Pitt still has that underdog, scrappy mentality. I get the sense that may never go away. With Big Fella Blair dominating the paint, Sam Young doing pretty much everything and Levance Fields leading the troops, this team sounds a lot like last year's, without the shooters.

The difference is that some key role players are much improved, and the bench will have far more of an impact than it did last year, as long as Pitt avoids the injury bug that killed its chances last year. I really thought last year's team, with Mike Cook and Fields playing every game, was a Final Four darkhorse. This year's team feels more like a team that should do well.

Look out for some of the newcomers, particularly Jermaine Dixon, Travon Woodall and Nasir Robinson. Also, expect Gary McGhee to be a little better around the basket and Tyrell Biggs to be a nice impact player either off the bench or as a starter.

Still, the problem is, none of these guys are shooters. Young scores all sorts of ways, but hit many of 3s because he was left alone on the perimeter. Fields is a streaky shooter at best, and takes more 3s than he should. That leaves two wing players from last year's team and a newcomer to handle the perimeter scoring load -- Brad Wanamaker, Gil Brown and freshman Ashton Gibbs. Wanamaker has shown that he can fill it up, but that was before he ever set foot on the court in a Pitt jersey. Since then, he has seemed apprehensive and uncertain of his game. Brown had a heck of a time as a shooter last year, and it's not really his game. Gibbs is still developing and will need to beef up a bit to become a consistent threat.

Pitt will still defend and rebound with the best of 'em, but the lack of a consistent outside scorer will probably come back to haunt the Panthers in the NCAAs. Expect a lot of excitement from these guys, though, and a far less rocky road than last year's rollercoaster of a season.

Why this man could go, and why he might not

When Arizona coach Lute Olson retired, anyone who knows me had to know what I was thinking: Pitt coach Jamie Dixon will make a beeline (or should I say Beilein?) for the Arizona job. I've always held the idea that once the 74-year-old Olson stepped aside, that Dixon would be the prime candidate for the job.

No one ever really seemed to disagree. In fact, some inside the Pitt circle merely nodded along with the notion, probably assuming that that situation wouldn't arise for some time.

But now it has.

For Pitt, maybe it's a good thing this all happened right before the season. There's no way any coach would leave at the outset of a season unless he was incredibly unhappy. As for after the 2008-2009 season, that's another story.

I will not put words into Dixon's mouth. He has never (publicly) stated any interest in any other jobs or any other area. I can't stress this enough: This is pure speculation.

(1) Dixon is a West Coast guy. He grew up in California.

(2) Dixon's resume has Los Angeles Junior College, UC-Santa Barbara, Hawaii and Northern Arizona on it. He has never had the opportunity to be a head coach out west.

(3) There's more of a basketball culture at Arizona. There, I said it. Olson created a national powerhouse, which, despite recent stumblings in the past few seasons, has reached 24 consecutive NCAA tournaments. Arizona also has four Final Four appearances, two title game appearances and one national title. How many does Pitt have?

(4) It's a recruiting step up. At Pitt, Dixon has to recruit hard-nosed players who play scrappy defense and rebound with elbows out. It has been relatively successful. But Arizona has the clout to recruit with the big boys; Pitt doesn't quite yet. Look at what Dixon's best friend, Ben Howland, has done at UCLA. Howland recruited the same kind of players Dixon recruits now when Howland was still at Pitt. Now that he is at UCLA, Howland can recruit McDonald's All-Americans who also happen to fit his style of play. Pitt could never land Kevin Love, Darren Collison or Russell Westbrook, but UCLA did, and those guys all fit into Howland's rough-and-tumble style of hoops that Dixon emulates.

(5) Dixon's family is still young. It's not as easy to move a family when your kids are middle schoolers or older.

Reasons (or excuses from fans in denial) about Dixon wouldn't leave Pitt
(1) He just signed a contract extension. And? Coaches sign extensions every other week. Extensions are a show for recruits--they simply mean that the coach is expected to be around for the four years of said recruit's time at the school. Plus, as CBS Sports's Gary Parrish puts it when discussing Oregon coach Ernie Kent's extension, "don't pay attention to his extension ... in the grand scheme of things, it means nothing." Also, keep this in mind: As noted in Parrish's story, Oregon's AD is good friends with the other top candidate for the Arizona job, Gonzaga coach Mark Few. If Kent is on the hot seat and is fired at the end of the season, Few is the instant favorite there, leaving Dixon as the sole frontrunner for the Arizona job.

(2) He has established himself in Pittsburgh. Now this argument I can buy a little bit more than the first one, which seems to be the fall-back response anytime this entire subject is brought up. Dixon took over Howland in 2004, and hasn't looked back. He hasn't really looked forward, either, as his teams consistently fail to surpass the Sweet 16, never really have a solid wing scorer and regularly over-exert themselves in the Big East tournament. Still, with one of the better recruiting classes in the country set for the 09-10 season, Dixon sticking around might mean the turning of the page on this program. If Pitt starts getting better recruits like this upcoming class shows it might, this program could finally (and legitimately) join the nation's top programs.

(3) From all that I've gathered, Dixon seems to have a good relationship with Steve Pederson and Mark Nordenberg. There's no reason to believe otherwise. If you get along with the school's brass, and they are willing to do whatever it takes to keep you happy, why screw up a good thing?

(4) He doesn't like playing Ben Howland. Give me a break. I think the basis for why they don't like playing each other is because Dixon still coaches at Pitt. Howland doesn't want to play his old school, where so many people are still friendly with him, especially Dixon. Arizona? Not the same strings. Twice a year? Heck, why not? Make it three times a year -- with the third being in the Pac-10 title game, and you've got yourselves a rivalry.

What will happen down the road ...
If I knew, I'd tell you. Again, this is entirely speculation, but I think Dixon at least listens to a serious offer from Arizona. This isn't Cal. This is one of the nation's top 10 programs that is far closer to Dixon's parents, who live in LA, and his sister, Julie, who is an LA-based lawyer. His best friend will be a lot closer, and his recruiting will be a lot easier. Any team that he puts together at Arizona will instantly be a Final Four contender. Including his current team at Pitt, there only appears to be a chance for Final Fours somewhere down the line, not right away.

I like Dixon. I think he's a good guy. But don't let that get in the way of logical basketball thinking. If you are not a Pittsburgher and/or a Pitt student, can you honestly say Dixon wouldn't give this opening a serious look? There are a few programs in college hoops that warrant this kind of serious look:

UCLA, Indiana (although not quite this year), Kentucky, Duke, UNC, Kansas, Arizona, Connecticut, Syracuse and maybe even Georgetown

Maybe Pitt will slowly latch onto this list, but it'll take some more time. After all, Pitt is a relatively new program on the national scene. Arizona is established. If Dixon, who turns 43 in a few weeks, can't wait so long, maybe it's time to bolt.

Bad time to be a Chicagoan -- check back in a month

Wait ... what? The Dodgers swept the Cubs? Three games, three Dodgers wins. The first two came in Chicago. The third was never really close. Hiroki Kuroda pinned down the Cubs all through Game 3, and James Loney's bat did the rest.

Pick when and where the knockout blow landed in this series. Whichever way you turn, the Cubs never had a shot. The National League's best team, a team that finished 97-64 with destiny seemingly on its side, had its vaunted pitching staff knocked around just enough, its fielders rattled just enough.

And out of the mayhem emerges a suddenly hot Dodgers club that, if Major League Baseball had any sense about it, wouldn't even be in the playoffs. It's sweeps like these that give reason to having division titles even in the age of 84-78 clubs (like the Dodgers).

As expected, the reaction from Chicago is mind-numbingly sad. Red Sox fans are amateurs compared to these guys.

Elsewhere
-- Speaking of the BoSox, they continue to deliver 12-hour games and ridiculously exciting late-inning thrillers. It was the Angels who got the best of the Red Sox this time, winning a 5-4, 12-inning melee last night. Don't ask how it got that far. By all accounts, the Angels wasted plenty of opportunities to blow the game open. Then, a routine popup landed untouched between three clueless Angels, allowing three Sox to score. But the Angels fought back, taking a 4-3 lead before promptly blowing, then winning on an Erick Aybar single.

-- Will it happen again tonight? Doubt it. The Sox won't let this thing slip out of their hands.

-- The Dow has fallen 10,000 points. Must have a lot of Cubs fans working over there.

-- Phillies-Dodgers in the NLCS. The battle of who's hotter. I like the Phils in this one, but the Dodgers' pitching and timely hitting will cause more problems for Philly than the Brewers' complete implosion.

-- Hilarious.

-- Disgusting.

-- How 'bout them Panthers? ... They're ranked again, too. There is some truth to the rumor that Dave Wannstedt's mustache is more powerful than ever. OK, OK, I just wanted to have a picture of Wanny's 'stache.

-- The (tentative) college hoops schedule for J. Greer for the 2008-09 season:

American at Georgetown
Memphis at Georgetown
Pitt at Georgetown
Providence at Georgetown
Bucknell at American
West Virginia at Georgetown
Cincinnati at Georgetown
BracketBusters at George Mason
Navy at American
DePaul at Georgetown

-- Parting thought: Must read.

Baaaashing That Billy Goat Curse

Can the Cubs shatter history with their first World Series win in more than a century? Are the Rays for real? Or are the Angels too good to beat? Can Drew and Lowell come back and impact the American League order? How about CC and the Crew? Is Manny Being Manny enough for the Dodgers? Can the Fightin' Phils improve upon last year's NLDS appearance? Or will the White Sox win one for Griff?

So many questions, so little time.

Brewers vs. Phillies
The pitching matchups will dictate this series. You have to like Cole Hamels in Game 1 for the Phils. At 24, he is the ace of this Phillies rotation. He didn't do that badly in Game 1 of last year's NLDS against the Rockies (6.2 IP, 3 R, 3 H, 7 K, 4 BB), but he still lost. There has to be a strong desire to win in the kid from Cali.

After Game 1, though, CC should outduel Brett Myers, who hasn't left the fifth inning in either of his past two starts. Back in Milwaukee, I'll take Jamie Moyer and his ageless arm in Game 3. Jeff Suppan toes the rubber in 4 for the Brew Crew, but the Phils haven't named a starter. Will it be Hamels on three days' rest? Or will they go with Joe Blanton? If this thing goes five, we could be treated to a CC-Hamels showdown in Philly. Here's hoping ...

I'll take the Phils in five.

Cubs-Dodgers
Dear God, what a big mismatch. When you can stack Dempster, Big Z, Harden and Lilly in a five-game series, you may not even get to Lilly. And I haven't even gotten to the Cubs' lineup.

The Dodgers can win a game in this series -- probably when it comes back to LA for Game 3 -- just because of Joe Torre and Manny Ramirez. Aside from that, I really can't give LA much of a shot. This team is exactly the reason why my dad groans and moans every September about teams making the playoffs that don't deserve it.

Not much to really talk about here, so I'll take the Cubs in four.

Red Sox-Angels
The best team in baseball, the Angels, takes on a recovering giant, the Sox. This has to be the best first-round matchup in the playoffs, with the Phils-Brewers coming in a close second. Just look at the pitching matchups:

John Lackey vs. Jon Lester
Ervin Santana vs. Dice-K
Joe Saunders vs. Josh Beckett

Plus, waiting in the bullpen, we've got K-Rod for the Angels, Jon Papelbon for the Sox.

Please wait while I clean up the drool on my keyboard ...

Throw in Ortiz, Youkilis and Pedroia for Boston, Vlad the Impaler, Anderson and Hunter, and this series has more star power than 30 Rock.

Unfortunately, for this Sox fan, I like the Angels in this series. I'll take LA in five.

White Sox-Rays
It's the kid Rays against the playoffs in this one. If Tampa Bay plays like it has all year, this series should be theirs to win. The Rays' young rotation hasn't thrown a single pitch in the postseason, so that's something to watch. Once the games get into the bullpens, however, guys like Troy Percival, Chad Bradford and Dan Wheeler should shoulder the load capably.

The White Sox do have some nice momentum going after their thrilling 1-0 win against the Twins yesterday in a one-game playoff. I'm excited to see Alexei Ramirez in the playoffs. And remember, this is a Chicago team that rocked 235 homers and 296 doubles this year. They can hit for power. Can they get the pitching to back it up?

I don't think so. I'll take the Rays in four.

Tune in next week for the ALCS and NLCS previews. In the meantime, keep praying for me and my fantasy team.