Let's go!

The long layoff from summer until now cannot and will not be explained. My reasons are not good enough. Let's just say laziness is a characteristic of mine. And I've been awfully busy.

But what else could lure me back to blogging than college hoops? Nothing beats 'em. So today I have some projections and some analysis.

First, let's talk Big East hoops. I like Louisville and Georgetown to finish 1-2. Those two slots could go either way. After those two clubs, there is a dropoff from national title contenders to Sweet 16 teams. Of the remaining 14 teams in the Big East, I really only see two teams as darkhorse candidates to make a run to the Final Four.

Here are my Big East rankings, with explanations attached...
1. Louisville -- I like the strong group returning and the coach on the sidelines. These guys impressed me a lot last year, and the talent on the floor mixed with the style of play means a combination fit for contention.
2. Georgetown -- Roy Hibbert and Scott Padgett (Louisville's big man) are the two best big men in the Big East. But what people keep forgetting is the slew of talent piled up around Hibbert. Jonathan Wallace is a fantastic point guard and a lethal shooter. DaJuan Summers and Patrick Ewing Jr. are pretty darn good, too. Throw in a group of quality returning reserves and a great recruiting class, and a return to the Final Four isn't crazy.
3. Syracuse -- I'm banking on the new guys. I like do-it-all Paul Harris. While I think Eric Devendorf is a gunner and not that great, I think the presence of the incoming guards and the improved play of the returnees can off-set Devendorf's annoying style of play.
4. Connecticut -- Jeff Adrien might be the most underrated forward in the league if Providence's Geoff McDermott didn't exist. I think the shooting will improve this year. This can happen for two reasons: everyone is a year older and more mature, and Hasheem Thabeet and Adrien will collapse defenses more this year than last.
5. Marquette -- The Golden Eagles are stacked on the perimeter. Who wouldn't love a three-guard tandem of Jerel McNeal, Wesley Matthews and Dominic James? They are the new version of Allan Ray, Randy Foye and Kyle Lowry. The difference? At least the Villanova trio had decent inside players. Marquette will need some of its prayers answered before it can hope to move any higher in the Big East.
6. Pitt -- The Panthers lack of a bona fide inside presence outside of 6-7 center DeJuan Blair irks me. Blair is going to be fantastic, but I think he is a power forward trapped in a small forward's body ... and he's starting at center. Needless to say the Panthers are undersized at the 2 and at the 4, as well. A solid corps of young reserves will really help this team.
7. Villanova -- Scottie Reynolds might average 35 points per game if defenders aren't careful. He's that explosive. What a stud. The Coreys (Fisher and Stokes) bring the best characters with that name to Philadelphia since Corey Matthews. Jay Wright always has his teams competitive, and the inside players are a year older.
8. Providence -- I think the Friars will sneak into the NCAA Tournament. I love McDermott, who is a 6-7 point forward that rebounds, passes and scores. Weyinmi Efejuku is a great slashing scorer and Sharaud Curry is the most underrated point guard in the conference. If PC can get anything out of its new additions and Randall Hanke returns to his status as a legitimate big man, the Friars are a tough looking club.
9. West Virginia -- Bob Huggins has the Mountaineers playing a hybrid offense and a toughened man-to-man D. Joe Alexander should emerge as a prominent forward in the conference, and Joe Mazzulla looked primed for a breakout season when I saw him play in the Pittsburgh Summer League. These teams keep surprising us, so don't blink twice if the 'Eers climb high up the standings.
10. Notre Dame -- The Fighting Irish are always competitive, and Mike Brey has some solid big men returning to his club. Luke Harangody and Rob Kurz should provide some quality post scoring and rebounding, and nobody works harder than them. Tory Jackson is even faster in person. The guy can shake people. I like the trio of Harangody, Jackson and Kurz, but it will take some convincing to move the Fighting Irish up.
11. Cincinnati -- Mick Cronin keeps molding and shaping this program into a winner, and the Bearcats are just one more year away from competing with the big dogs in the BEast. This year, expect some growing pains. Deonta Vaughn is a dynamic scoring from the perimeter, and he will definitely cause some problems for Bearcats' opponents.
12. Seton Hall -- Bobby Gonzalez has a tough group of guys on his roster, and the rebuilding of the program is underway. Nobody works harder than Gonzalez, and his first real recruiting class looks strong. The Pirates have the potential to really push some of the better clubs in the league. Watch for Jamar Nutter, a scrappy senior who has improved every year.
13. DePaul -- Jerry Wainwright is a tireless recruiter and will need his new freshmen to help solve the glaring holes left by Sammy Mejia (graduated) and Wilson Chandler (drafted). Draelon Burns will see a big increase in his offensive duties this year, and he has a chance to finally be the centerpiece of the Blue Demons' offense.
14. St. John's -- Divine Intervention couldn't save the Red Storm this year. I've seen Pittsburgh recruit DJ Kennedy play, and he isn't a bad addition to the program. Unfortunately, he, along with everyone else on this team, is not that great. Good luck winning five conference games.
15. Rutgers -- The only thing worse than being Rutgers basketball is being a basketball at Rutgers. The Scarlet Knights will miss plenty of shots this year, hoping that JR Inman comes down with the rebound and scores the putback. Otherwise, these guys are troubled before the season even tips off.
16. South Florida -- Kentrell Gransberry will be the centerpiece of The Team That Never Should Have Left Conference USA. Still, Solomon Bozeman should be an impact guard in the Big East, and new coach Stan Heath will have these guys competing sooner than you might think.

Goin' Dancin'
I mentioned NCAA Tournament teams. I think eight will come from the Big East, solely because of the league's size and quality. Here are the eight, and their seeds are in parentheses.

Louisville (1), Georgetown (2), Syracuse (4), Connecticut (4), Marquette (5), Pitt (7), Villanova (8) and Providence (10).

Elite status
Here are my Elite 8 picks. Of course, these will be inaccurate because we won't know the pairings until March.

North Carolina, Memphis, UCLA, Louisville, Georgetown, Tennessee, Southern Illinois and Indiana.

Final Four
I like Memphis, UCLA, Louisville and Tennessee

Title Game
I'll take Tennessee vs. UCLA

Winner
UCLA. The Bruins no longer have the offensive juggernaut Florida to stand in their. Ben Howland's defense will smother anyone and everyone standing in its path, and the Bruins have one of the most dynamic floor leaders in the nation, Darren Collison, patrolling their perimeter. Kevin Love is going to be an absolute stud.

Jesus Saves?

Can Ray Allen -- also known as Jesus Shuttlesworth in He Got Game -- save the Celtics?

In a knee-jerk deal to appease frustrated Celtics star Paul Pierce, Danny Ainge dealt Wally Szczerbiak, Delonte West and the Celtics' No. 5 Draft pick to Seattle for Ray Allen and the Sonics' No. 35 Draft pick.

With the deal, the Sonics told the Celtics to take Georgetown's Jeff Green. So they did. And the Celtics took LSU's Glen Davis with the 35th pick.

The C's moved Wally World's colossal contract. He never really did anything for me in a Celtics uniform.

But they also took on a big contract of an aging shooting guard in Allen. He's due $26 million over the next two seasons.

When that contract runs out, Jesus will be 34.

34!

And Pierce will be 32.

So much for building around young talent. Delonte West and the No. 5 pick might combine to be better players than a 33-year-old Ray Allen.

In the meantime, the Celtics will now feature this crew of players:

PG Rajon Rondo/Sebastian Telfair/(Pick No. 32) Gabe Pruitt
SG Ray Allen/Tony Allen/Allan Ray
SF Paul Pierce/Gerald Green
PF Al Jefferson/Ryan Gomes/Brian Scalabrine/Glen Davis/Leon Powe
C Kendrick Perkins/Theo Ratliff
*Michael Olowokandi is an unrestricted free agent

Allen, Pierce and Jefferson form a decent three-man core of the team. If, and that's a big if, Rondo, Telfair, Allen, Green, Gomes and Perkins keep developing, the C's might be a playoff spot contender.

But in the Eastern Conference, a team attains a playoff spot with 40 wins. So that begs greater questions.

What kind of Celtics fan are you?

Can you be satisfied for the next two years with a team that wins 40-50 games in a conference weaker than ever?

Can you enjoy a team's postseason when it ends in the first or second round two years in a row?

I'm sorry, but I can't. I want rings. I was born in 1986, the last year the Celtics won a title. In 1987, when I was in diapers, they won a conference title.

I watched the Celtics reach the 2002 Eastern Conference finals. But I also watched Ainge come in and screw it all up. He said he was rebuilding the team around Pierce. And so they started drafting young studs like high schoolers Al Jefferson, Gerald Green and Kendrick Perkins.

Ainge wanted Celtics fans to be patient. And we were. He kept adding weapons.

Rajon Rondo, a rookie this past season, turned into a promising young player. Ryan Gomes, a second-round steal in the 2005 NBA Draft, molded into a productive bench player. Gerald Green developed into a confident wing player with lots of potential still waiting to be realized. Kendrick Perkins turned into an efficient rebounder and post presence with some maturing left in his tank.

And Al Jefferson became one of the best scoring big men in the Eastern Conference.

We were patient when Ainge told us to be patient.

And then he pulled the trigger on a deal that clearly shouts, "We are going to try to win now to make an unhappy, whiny Paul Pierce, who sat out half the season with an injury that my grandma could play through, happy again."

So then Danny thinks, "I'm going to deal away one of my team's most promising young players and the fifth pick in the deepest draft in NBA history for an aging star who just had two of his ankles repaired by surgery."

A lot of four-letter words climb to the tip of my tongue.

Perhaps the most harmless word of them all is "quit."

I quit.

I am not a Celtics fan anymore. I will not watch them anymore. I can't handle it. I'm furious.

The 2007-2008 season will shake out in the following way:

Pierce and Allen each average 25 points. Jefferson gives us 20 and 10, maybe more. And Tony Allen and Gerald Green continue to suffer blows to their development because aging stars demand 40 minutes a night. And the Celtics win 45 games.

Wow.

Forty-five games! That is so worth it!

And when the buzzer sounds in Game 5 of the first round demolition of this C-list team by Insert Stale Eastern Conference Opponent Here, we won't be patient.

We'll be mad. And Danny Ainge might become a patient.

Drafting up a memorable night

THE

GREAT

DEBATE

ODEN

OR

DURANT

When most people think summer, they think beach, heat, water, bathing suits, baseball, freedom and/or air conditioning.

I'm not most people.

Far from it, actually.

When I think summer, I think NBA Draft. And with this year's looking juicier than ever, can you blame me?

This is a huge debate: Oden or Durant? Portland owns the first pick. Seattle possesses the second. Whoever Portland takes, or as some would say, doesn't take, Seattle gets the other. Regardless of who they pick, both teams will leave the 2007 NBA Draft with two of the top 10 future stars under 23 in the NBA. Not half bad, I say.

Greg Oden is the safe pick. You've read or heard it everywhere. He will rebound, block shots and basically be a reliable big man, if he stays healthy, for a long time. He will provide whichever team picks him a franchise piece around which a team can be built.

Kevin Durant is the sexy pick. He will instantly be a star. He's more marketable than Oden, but not by that much. He will score a lot right away. He is a competitor. And, in any other draft in the last two seasons, he would have been the top pick.

So who do you take?

I have to say Oden. If you're the Blazers, you have a young nucleus that Oden only enhances. Put Oden in a group with Zach Randolph, Rookie of the Year Brandon Roy, developing LaMarcus Aldridge and Jarrett Jack, and the Blazers are seemingly ready to win now.

Oden's presence with help the Blazers defensively and open things up on the wing.

Durant on the Sonics means that, if Rashard Lewis re-signs, Seattle has a trio of incredible wing players -- Ray Allen, Lewis and Durant. That's a great group. The Sonics need a post player, but around Allen and Durant, Seattle can probably win right away.

Third ain't so bad

Al Horford in a Hawks uniform would be nice to see ... for Atlanta fans. The power forward will be ready to contribute right away and he's better than Shelden Williams.

With Marvin Williams, Joe Johnson, Josh Smith and Horford, the Hawks will probably be playoff contenders.

They'll also be playoff contenders if they can finagle the trade that would land them Amare Stoudamire.

Who knows how that will end up?

The best player no one is really talking about

I say Nick Young from USC. He has good size for a 2-guard, a high release and great athleticism. He is a shooter and a slasher in one. And no matter who gets him, I've heard anywhere from 7 to 20, Young will be effective almost immediately.

A future thorn in your side

Keep an eye on Al Thornton in the future. He might be similar to Josh Howard in the near future. He is a dynamic player with an NBA ready body.

You just can't go wrong

You can't pick incorrectly in the Lottery this year. The picks are good until 14, and even past 14. There are solid players for almost everyone. And the second round features some quality players, too.

I just can't express my happiness. I'm giddy.

It's gonna be a blast.

NBA Finals Preview

This is it. The coronation of a new king. The king. King James I. He grew up overnight. He was a junior in high school when he first appeared on TV. He was on the cover of Slam Magazine. He became the poster child of basketball. He became The Future.

Every basketball fan on the planet knew he would be taken first in the 2003 NBA Draft. It was a no-brainer. And he started his career with a splash, ripping the Sacramento Kings. He had 25 points, nine assists, six rebounds and four steals.

Three years, 221 days and 21 hours after his first appearance on an NBA court, LeBron James is there. He is in the NBA Finals. It took the performance of a lifetime in Game 5 of the Eastern Conference Finals and the emergence of Daniel Gibson in Game 6, but the Champ is here.

And now it's time for him to shine.

The challenge is formidable. LeBron James and his Cavaliers face Tim Duncan and the San Antonio Spurs. The Spurs won NBA titles in 1999, 2003 and 2005. In each three title wins, Duncan won Finals MVP. He has slowly but surely found his way into conversations regarding the greatest big men -- and players -- of all time.

Duncan has great teammates around him. Tony Parker is one of the top five point guards in the league. Manu Ginobili is the best sixth man in the league. And the role players are working hard and getting results.

Here are the probable starting lineups and key players.

Larry Hughes PG Tony Parker
Sasha Pavlovic SG Michael Finley
LeBron James SF Bruce Bowen
Drew Gooden PF Tim Duncan
Zydrunas Ilgauskas C Fabricio Oberto

Key Cavs reserves
Point guard Daniel Gibson, point guard Eric Snow, forward Anderson Varejao, forward Donyell Marshall and guard Damon Jones

Key Spurs reserves
Wing Manu Ginobili, forward Robert Horry, shooter Brent Barry, forward Cisco Elson and point guard Jacque Vaughn

-- The biggest match up is Bowen and James, no questions asked. Parker told reporters that the Spurs would guard James straight up, one on one. No help defending. No double teams. No triple teams. Just man-to-man, nose-to-the-grindstone defense. Yeah, good luck, Bowen. Here's to hoping LeBron isn't hurt by another Bowen cheap shot.

-- The Cavs will need Hughes to rebound from his sluggish performances throughout these playoffs. He has to be better.

-- Cleveland will also need its big men -- Gooden, Ilgauskas and Anderson -- to produce. They'll be busy covering Duncan, but they have to score. A lot.

-- Duncan can't fade in and out of the games like he did against Utah. Sure, he put up good numbers, but he needs to dominate. He has the teammates around him to carry some of the load. Still, this series is his for the taking. If he establishes himself, the Spurs win. And arguably easily.

I hate making predictions. I'm terrible at them. I always get them wrong. So instead of trying to sound smart, knowledgeable or anything like that, I'll go with what I know best: rooting for a team and picking accordingly.

I haven't wanted a team not to win the NBA title more than the last time Jordan and the Bulls were in the Finals. I rooted so furiously against the Bulls that I had trouble sleeping when they won. Now, I have a new hatred: the San Antonio Spurs. They are boring. They are mechanical. They are everything the NBA doesn't want as the league's champ.

This is supposed to be the coronation of the king. And I will predict what I want to see.

I want LeBron to average a triple-double. I want him to score 35 points a game. I want him to pass the ball better than Magic in his heyday. I want him to rebound like Bill Russell. I want him to steal like John Stockton.

I'll say Cavs in six. They'll win it in Cleveland. They'll shred the history books. And I'll be cheering.

Take it back!

Well, Billy Donovan wants out of his deal with the Orlando Magic. Donovan will be the second coach this summer to take a new job, go to bed, wake up and want out.

Remember the Arkansas debacle? Creighton coach Dana Altman decided, after taking a five-year offer to leave Nebraska for Fayetteville, that he did not want to coach the Razorbacks. He returned to Creighton the next day.

It's deja vu all over again. But the stakes are much, much higher. This is the NBA. This isn't some Missouri Valley coach freaking out over taking an SEC job. This is a two-time NCAA champ freaking out over taking -- as Bill Simmons would say -- The Leap.

There's nothing left in college hoops for Donovan. He has two titles. He had an entire starting lineup enter the NBA Draft, and four of them are top-10 picks. The NBA would be a new challenge.

But with the new challenge comes a changed role. He wouldn't be in charge of personnel decisions -- he'd only have a say in them. He'd be an opinion in a discussion on free agents and draft picks. He wouldn't literally extend his hand and guarantee a spot on his roster. Not in the NBA. That's what the execs are for. They make the big money.

So that would leave Donovan in a simpler role. All he'd have to do is coach. Just coach. No personnel. No recruiting swings. No text messaging recruits. No e-mailing boosters. None of that. Just coaching.

And NBA players don't need as much teaching. Donovan would basically be handling personalities and deciding how many times Dwight Howard touches the ball.

That might be too boring. But it doesn't change my previous post. It doesn't change VCU coach Anthony Grant's imminent arrival as Florida's Next Coach. It's just a matter of when. And whether or not Donovan can live with his decision to move on.

This one's a mulligan.

Grant me a wish...

Billy "The Kid" Donovan is headed to Orlando. Not for vacation after his second national title in a row. He's the next head coach of the Orlando Magic.

But that's not the only news.

Virginia Commonwealth coach Anthony Grant has been tabbed as the probable replacement to Donovan in Gainesville after VCU's successful 2006-2007 campaign. Grant coached the Rams to a second-round appearance in the NCAA Tournament by way of a colossal upset of sixth-seeded Duke in the first round. He took over after Jeff Capel bolted for Oklahoma.

Grant was an assistant under Donovan in Florida's first title run in 2006. Grant guided VCU to a 28-7 record. But the program was built by Capel.

And now Grant is probably headed to Florida, where Donovan has already (obviously) built a winner.

I met Grant in Buffalo when he and his coaching staff scouted Pitt. Pitt was lambasting 14th-seeded Wright State in its first round game. VCU lost to Pitt in the second round, in overtime, 84-79.

But I was certainly impressed by Grant (and his coaching staff) both in action, at the press conferences and while he sat next to me scouting Pitt. Grant is a straight-forward guy. He doesn't mess around. He shows no fear, no nerves, no anxiety. He is serious. He is honest. And he is one of the most poised coaches I've ever met or heard at press conferences.

And I've seen Jim Calhoun, Rick Pitino, John Thompson III, Jamie Dixon, Ben Howland, Coach K, etc., etc.

A lot of people were saying that Grant, who is 41, would probably replace Donovan when Billy decided to test the NBA waters. But no one was expecting Donovan to test them so soon. The 42-year-old boy wonder has done everything he can in college hoops. There isn't much else to do. And the personnel decisions aren't all on him anymore. He has the GM and front office to help with that. So you can't blame him for trying.

In the meantime, Grant's ticket to the top tier of coaching will probably be punched far sooner than we thought. And he deserves it.

Grant could very easily be among the great coaches before his days at Florida are over. He knows how to prepare his team. He knows how to carry himself. He knows how to win. And if Florida hires him, he won't need time to build a winner. Billy Donovan built the winner.

Grant will just keep bringing home titles. And I don't think there is a better guy for the job.

Lucky number...FIve?!?!

It was supposed to be the biggest night in recent Celtics history. The night where a ping-pong ball with the Celtics logo found its way into the hands of whoever runs the NBA Draft Lottery.

Then we'd hear the most beautiful sequence of sentences...

"The third pick goes to...the Milwaukee Bucks..."

"The second pick goes to...the Memphis Grizzlies..."

"The first pick in the 2007 NBA Draft will go to...the Boston Celtics..."

But on Tuesday night, somewhere between 8:30 and 9 Eastern Standard Time, some stooge pulled up the envelope. The envelope contained a little card with a team's logo on it. The envelope signified the fifth pick in the 2007 NBA Draft. Essentially, the envelope contained a pick three slots away from a soon-to-be superstar, a sure fit for one of the future greatest players of all-time -- Greg Oden or Kevin Durant, to be precise.

The envelope contained a card with the Boston Celtics logo.

The Acopalypse is upon us.

God hates the NBA.

More importantly, God hates the Celtics and Celtics fans.

But I actually started thinking about it -- after the throw up descended back down my throat, after I regained consciousness, after I received three phone calls and at least five instant messages complaining about the Lottery -- and I'm almost not worried.

Almost.

And I might get my head cut off by my friends from home. I am, luckily, safely in Pittsburgh. For now, anyway.

But if you look at the top 15 in this year's Draft, the list is pretty nice. Heck, if you peruse who could still be available at No. 5, you might not be too, too worried.

After all, there are options.

Let's talk trade
Well, Portland needs a proven veteran to lead the crop of great, young players: Rookie of the Year Brandon Roy is teamed up with developing starlet LaMarcus Aldridge, post powerhouse Zach Randolph and promising point Jarrett Jack. What do they need?

A proven veteran who plays on the wing.

Insert Paul Pierce. Dangle Pierce and the No. 5 pick for Portland's top pick, and the Celtics can pick Oden or Durant to be the face of the franchise. The contractual issues will be a problem. But I think some kind of trade will be on the table, and, as much as I love Pierce, it's definitely worth considering.

Call me Al
Did you watch the NCAA Championship? Did you see the 6-10 beast on Florida's block wearing out the Ohio State defense? Yeah, he's Al Horford. And he might be available at No. 5.

Think about it...

At the point, Rajon Rondo and Delonte West can handle things.

On the wings, the C's have Paul Pierce (obviously), Wally Szczerbiak (please, be healthy), Gerald Green and Tony Allen.

In the post, Ryan Gomes and Kendrick Perkins can be great off the bench, rebounding the ball and defending well. And in the starting lineup, Horford and Al Jefferson can rock the blocks with the best of the young talent in the game.

I guess what I'm saying is, I want Horford.

I want him in green. He will develop. He is NBA ready. And he doesn't have the nagging injury problems Oden struggles with or the I've-never-touched-a-weight frame of Durant.

Maybe I'm rationalizing. But maybe I'm right. We'll find out June 28.

Western Conference Preview

I know it's not the 1-2 matchup everyone wanted. The Mavs are gone. The Suns were defeated in six games by David Stern and the NBA (it was a great series!). The Warriors sputtered out faster than Rick Santorum's political career.

But have faith.

For the Jazz are not all that bad. Maybe Utah can send San Antonio back to Texas, where boring is acceptable.

(Oh, slam.)

Really, this series might actually be one that we can thoroughly enjoy. Heck, it could go seven games.

Boozehounding
Carlos Boozer, much like LeBron James in the Eastern Conference Finals, could be the deciding factor in how this series plays out. If Boozer continues his playoff dominance -- 24.4 points, 12.2 rebounds per game -- he could will the Jazz back to the Finals.

But the Spurs aren't a small, running offense without a post presence like the Warriors. The Spurs will work their mechanical offense, feeding Tim Duncan the ball every possession while Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili slash to the basket and three-point shooters spot up.

The question is, can Boozer still score and operate as efficiently as he has over the last two series with Duncan covering him?

In three games against the Spurs this year (Boozer sat out the Spurs-Jazz game on Jan. 31), Boozer averaged 16.7 points and 11 rebounds a game. He attempted 15 free throws in three games.

That's not enough. He has to do more. And if he doesn't, the Jazz are in trouble.

Playing Hot Potato
The Jazz have seven or eight guys who want to score. They have five guys who want the ball in crunch time. And they have a point guard who, paired with Boozer, could tear down the Spurs in this series. But can the Jazz get everybody touches, keep people hot and make some big shots?

The Victory Manu(al)
Manu Ginobili, as much as I hate saying this, had a great series against the Suns. And if he is a consistent scorer off the bench in this series, that might be too much for the Jazz. If he gets into the paint, gets the calls and finds his niche, Ginobili can cause matchup problems and rip holes in defenses.

The Shakedown
I wish I could say that the Jazz will win this series confidently. But I honestly can't even muster up the courage to get it on my tongue, let alone spit it out.

The Spurs are too good. Duncan and company will not allow Boozer to dominate the lane like he did against the Warriors and that should all but stop the music in this series.

The Jazz win if Boozer can find a way to beat Duncan head to head and Deron Williams uses his size advantage on Tony Parker. If the role players are hitting their shots, the Jazz can be a lethal team at critical spots in games.

But I know the Spurs are the Robots That Can. And they will.

Spurs in seven.

Eastern Conference Finals Preview

I was served a piping plate of humiliation last night, courtesy of the San Antonio Spurs.

The San Antonio Yawn Machine continued its uneventful run in the NBA Playoffs with a dominating win over the disgruntled and exhausted Phoenix Suns to win the series 4-2.

The victory came hours after I wrote that the Suns would win back-to-back games and make the Western Conference Finals.

Silly me.

But let's do a preview of both series.

We have Cavs-Pistons in the East, with Detroit hosting games one, two, five and seven.

In the West, it's the Utah Jazz and the San Antonio Robots (er, Spurs), with the Spurs hosting games one, two, five and seven.

LeBron vs. Detroit's help D: who ya got?
The Eastern Conference Finals have some interesting matchups:

Rasheed Wallace
Chris Webber
Tayshaun Prince LeBron James
Richard Hamilton
Chauncey Billups

Who will guard James?

Last year, Bron-Bron almost single-handedly beat the Pistons. Check out his series statline in seven games against the Pistons last year:

26.6 ppg, 8.4 rpg, 6 apg, 46 mpg, 44% FG, 28% 3-pt., 73% FT, 4.4 topg

Just great numbers.Notice the last three stats, though?

28% 3-point shooting, 73% free-throw shooting, 4.4 turnovers per game

Not great. In fact, Bron-Bron probably shouldn't shoot a 3-pointer unless three unique situations present themselves:

1) He is wide open. And I mean wide, wide open. If the closest Piston is within eight feet, Bron-Bron isn't open.
2) The Cavs are down three points with less than five seconds left. I say five because with the clock hovering around 10 seconds, LeBron should get to the basket and get a layup, dunk or foul shots. Then the Cavs foul. Then he does it again.
3) If he has enough magnets put back on his hands after losing some of them. But David Blaine says only Anderson Varejao carries them, so if Anderson isn't on the floor, Bron-Bron shouldn't pull a 3.

Look, every writer and their grandmother has written this before and I'll stress it here: LeBron should be able to get to the rim every time he touches the ball.

In the case of the Pistons, LeBron will be facing a great team defense. If you watched the Bulls-Pistons series, you saw what was ultimately a locked-down lane and very little space for the Bulls to work with. That means LeBron will have to play a little more attention to detail.

And he has teammates, too.

They can do him a favor by cutting, getting to the blocks or understanding the floor's spacing. When LeBron gets into the paint, the Pistons will probably collapse on him. Whether collapse means a help defender or three is dependent on the situation. But there will also be someone open when LeBron is driving to the basket if the Cavs' spacing is done well.

I worry about LeBron's teammates hitting their shots. I really do. LeBron is going to have to put up even better numbers than he did in last year's Eastern Conference semifinals.

He might need to put on a cape first, but if he can finagle 30 points, 10 rebounds and 10 assists a game, the Cavs might have a shot.

Might have a shot.

He will also have to shoot closer to 50 percent from the field, avoid shooting 3s, shoot foul shots at a better clip and avoid turning the ball over.

These are not easy tasks for Bron-Bron. Especially with his reportedly banged up knee and struggling (and pregnant) girlfriend.

But if he can distribute the ball, get into the lane and get to the next level of superstardom, LeBron might not single-handedly almost beat Detroit.

He might just beat them after all.

Webber + Wallace = Ws?
If these guys establish themselves in the paint, it'll be tough for the Cavs' D to single out Prince, Hamilton and Billups on the perimeter. But Webber had a terrible series against the Bulls and 'Sheed has to watch his temper ('Sheed? Nawww.)

And Drew Gooden and Zydrunas Ilgauskas aren't slouches. Gooden might be the Cavs' X-Factor when all is said and done.

Who is guarding who?
With LeBron and Sasha Pavlovic both being taller small forwards, who do you let Pavlovic guard? He plays worse defense than me. That means either Rip Hamilton or Tayshaun Prince will eat up the Cavs. It also means that LeBron will have to play 45-plus minutes, working hard on both ends of the floor, every possession.

Will that be too much for Baby Bron-Bron?

The Shakedown
The Pistons know the Cavs aren't afraid of them. Cleveland played Detroit to the brink, leading last year's postseason meeting 3-2 before the Pistons shut down the Cavs offense and won in seven games.

But the Pistons' help defense might be just enough to slow LeBron and sputter the Cavs' offense. And that should make the difference in the series, because LeBron can't guard the entire Pistons lineup and score every point. Nor can he handle 48 minutes per game over seven games. It's too much. It's up to his teammates to prove us all wrong.

Pistons in six.

Burnt by the Commish, the Suns' playoff hopes are fading

I'm ready to blame NBA Commish David Stern personally for the Suns' exit from the playoffs. As if you haven't read it everywhere else, the NBA stuck to its rule on players leaving the bench during an on-court scuffle.

I understand the rule. I understand the precedent. And I definitely understand the logic.

I also am fully aware of the NBA's continuous problem controlling its' on-floor scuffling problem and the egg shells Stern walks on everytime he tries to make a decision about suspensions. The NBA deals with the racism question everyday, something few other professional leagues around here deal with.

And yet, Stern missed the suspension that would've made Wednesday's Game Five fair.

Tim Duncan, the NBA's Most Boring Player, left the bench after "Cisco" Elson took a spill in Game Four. Cisco swung around the rim after an emphatic, meaningless dunk and straddled the shoulders of a Suns player. He plummeted to the floor face first. The Spurs' bench freaked out.

And Duncan walked on the floor.

Suspension?

No. Of course not.

So the Spurs got another favor from the NBA, even after Bruce Bowen's repeated attempts to murder several NBA stars, Manu Ginobili's unbelievably annoying flops reminiscent of Reggie Miller and Gregg Popovich's unending reign as the NBA's ugliest human being (yeah, he just edged out the prettiest non-human, Rocky the Mountain Lion, the Nuggets' mascot, in the most recent rankings).

Seriously, have you watched Ginobili? You move within one foot of the guy and he bounces around on the floor like a fish gasping for air.

But still, the Spurs beat out Steve Nash, Raja Bell, Shawn Marion and your 2002-2003 Thomas Jefferson High School Wildcats.

Gasp. It must've been really tough! Watching Kurt Thomas guard Duncan is like watching your 60-year-old dad try to prove he can still beat you at something. Lots of agonizing demolition.

I like the Suns in Game Six. And Game Seven. Not for any big, logical reason. I like them because I want them to win more than anything I've wanted recently, and that includes several tempting sightings of Krispy Kreme products.

Will you watch the Pistons-Cavs series?

Didn't think so.

How about Jazz-Spurs?

Still nothing.

But would you watch any series involving the Suns for the rest of the playoffs?

Point made.

So let's hope the unfair decision by Stern doesn't cost the Suns another playoff series. Unfortunately, I have a feeling it will.

Um, go Jazz?

There comes a time...

... in the life of every sports nut in the world that may or may not generate the greatest epiphany of all.

You constantly check fantasy stats or your favorite team on your cell phone while your girlfriend (or boyfriend, no excluding the lady sports nuts) sits impatiently waiting for you to talk.

You pine over the major blow your NFL team suffered when its backup right tackle is released.

You get excited over a four-star recruit signed by your school's basketball team.

You make a Mickey Morandini joke.

You ramble off the starting lineup of the 1992-1993 Boston Celtics, awkwardly mutter a reference to Thurman Thomas or laugh at your own pathetic Rob Deer joke.

But no one else laughs. Maybe the crickets respond. But only if the rubbing of their wings symbolizes a response.

Face it, buddy. You are a sports nerd.

There's nothing wrong with it. But really, clean the confectionary sugar from the miniature powdered doughnut you devoured during the fourth inning of the Royals-Devil Rays game off your battered polo shirt.

There are a few ways to counter this problem:

1) Spend a weekend without watching any sports.

-- After recent completion of my third year at Pitt, I spent six days in Denver. The only sporting event I even sniffed was the Rockies-Braves game. It was perfect. I watched countless MTV reality shows, the TBS early evening lineup and ate lots of ice cream. I went out to eat with my dad almost every night and chewed on politics, current events and American foreign policy.

In other words, try to think about other things than sports. Separate yourself. You might learn something. Maybe even about yourself.

2) Don't manage a fantasy team for a season.

-- That way, you won't be worrying about JJ Putz or Charlie Bell. And you won't be scribbling stats on a napkin at a restaurant. If anything, there won't be any time spent figuring Scott Olsen's WHIP.

3) Talk to your friends about something other than sports.

-- Shoot the breeze at a bar or in your living room. Talk about the ugly girl in your friend's economics class. Try to talk about current events or some sweet beer you recently drank. Talk about anything other than Barry Bonds.

It's not necessarily bad to be a sports nerd. I mean, if you want, you can bloviate about sports when you can barely throw a baseball 10 feet until you're blue in the face. A lot of people do it. Heck, small papers in the middle of Pennsylvania might hire you to write a blog for them.

But if you want to fit into society, try one of three things I mentioned and maybe, just maybe, you can at least hide the sports nerd in you.

What was that? Sorry, I was sleeping

I fell asleep during that last Spurs possession. Is anyone else getting sick of Tim Duncan -- the NBA's Albert Pujols -- and the Spurs -- the NBA's St. Louis Cardinals?

Think about it -- Duncan is the most boring star in the NBA's highest tier of superstars. He uses the backboard. He casually dunks, if he has to. He just posts up and scores. He is quiet. He hardly makes the news -- save for the random incident with referee Joey Crawford.

He is the most boring basketball player on the planet. Yet he has three championships and three NBA Finals MVP awards. He has two NBA MVP awards. He's played in nine All-Star games. He's made eight All-NBA teams. And he's made nine All-Defensive teams.

He has the resume of one of the greatest players of all-time. He will go down as probably one of the top five post men in NBA history.

But when you're grandkid asks who the greatest players of your generation were, you might not get to him right away. You'll say Michael Jordan, LeBron James, Kobe Bryant, Dwayne Wade, Shaq, heck, maybe even Allen Iverson. Then, when you flip through Kevin Garnett, Yao Ming, Tracy McGrady, Carmelo Anthony, Dirk Nowitzki and Steve Nash, you'll slip in Tim Duncan. You'll describe him as a fundamental player. A player who if you weren't careful, would score 30 points, grab 20 rebounds and block five shots.

But he was always like that "conventional" background the guys picked in their elementary school photos -- nothing out of the ordinary.

And let's face it -- Pujols is the same. He plays for an old school team in the middle of the country, like Duncan. He is wedged in between a group of bunting, stealing, fielding players. He might have the most dangerous bat in baseball.

But when your kids say, "Daddy, who was the greatest player of your generation?" You'll respond with A-Rod, Clemens, Bonds or David Ortiz.

Then you'll chime in with some more guys -- Vlad Guerrero, Manny Ramirez, Pedro Martinez, Derek Jeter, Randy Johnson. And you'll find Pujols in there somewhere.

Pujols has a World Series ring, one NL MVP, five trips to the All-Star Game, 256 home runs, 775 RBIs and a career .330 batting average in just six-plus Major League Baseball seasons.

And he's only 27.

But the point is this: Duncan and Pujols are boring. They never say anything worthwhile. They always put up the same numbers the same way. Their teams are always successful by playing boring styles. They are always in the thick of a title race.

And they are the most boring superstars in their sports.

So, as much as Duncan is arguably the best big man in the NBA right now, I have no desire to see the Spurs beat the high-flying, slamma-jamma Suns.

I want the Suns to score 120 points every game. I want the Suns to win the NBA Title.

And I sure don't want the Cardinals to repeat.

Bronx Fairy Tale?
-- Roger Clemens is headed back to the Yankees. In other news, the Yankees might break .500 this year after all.

Launch canceled in Houston
The Rockets choked in the big game -- again. Now we get to see the Jazz and Warriors square off. The Jazz have a little more depth than the Rockets, so that might spell the end of the Warriors' run. But then again, the Mavericks had a lot of depth, experience and certainly talent. And where are they?

Van Jobless
Jeff Van Gundy appears to be out as the Rockets' coach. He's 182-146 in Houston. He's also 7-12 in the playoffs. In four seasons, Van Gundy coached the Rockets to three playoff berths and three first-round losses.

Am I surprised? No. Can the Rockets do better with another coach? Well, first they'll need some players to help T-Mac and Yao. And of course, we'll keep a tab on free agents and potential draft selections.

Nice chip-covered shirt
Thanks. I've thoroughly enjoyed eating chips, drinking Dr. Pepper and chatting sports with you. See you soon.

More from the smothering heat of Pittsburgh

The humidity in this former industrial city wraps around your arms with each step, forcing sweat in the most stationary activities.

It's awful.

But still, the roundball world is spinning like the backspin on a Mark Price foul shot. And I'm eating an unbelievable meatball sandwich from Fuel and Fuddle.

One of the previous sentences was useless information. I write, you decide.

Anyway, the Warriors finished off the Mavericks last night in a shocking first-round upset in the NBA playoffs. And yes, it was shocking. Yes, it was a HUGE upset.

The big names on Golden State -- Baron Davis, Stephen Jackson and Jason Richardson -- finally put together performances to get Golden State rolling. It started over the Warriors final 10-12 games or so, and has continued through the first round of the playoffs.

Most people probably think whoever wins the Jazz-Rockets series will cruise to the Western Conference Finals. And most people probably think whoever wins the Suns-Spurs series is headed to the NBA Finals.

Think again.

I like the Warriors against both the Jazz and the Rockets. Sure, both the Jazz and the Rockets play a significantly different style than the Warriors -- slow it down, pound it inside and beat the opponent up -- which is why that series is headed to the seventh game. But the Warriors, if effective enough in another long series, can shock and awe opponents with their quick-moving attack.

If anything, it won't be easy for the Jazz or Rockets to topple the Warriors. As if you needed me telling you that.

Nonetheless, I still like the high-octane offense of the Suns to take the West. I picked the Mavs to win it, for obvious reasons, but without them around, the Suns (hopefully, for the sake of the playoffs being interesting) will get past the Spurs.

In the East, the top three teams have already won their series. And I like the Bulls against the Pistons. I think the Bulls have what it takes to topple the World's Most Boring Team.

The Cavs will have trouble with the Nets or the Raptors. And frankly, I don't think it matters which of these three teams wins this Eastern Conference semifinal because the Bulls and Pistons are the top teams.

Sorry, Bron-Bron.

Theus headed to the NBA?
-- Reggie Theus interviewed for the Charlotte job. No, not the UNC-Charlotte job. The Charlotte Bobcats job. And he has the experience, according to ESPN's Andy Katz, to lead an NBA club.

Oh, and did I mention Sacramento and Indiana are interested in Theus, too?

As you know by now, Theus coaches New Mexico State. The Aggies made the 2007 NCAA Tournament as a 13 seed and finished 25-9. NM State pushed Texas in the first round.

Theus coached alongside Rick Pitino at Louisville for two seasons before taking the job at New Mexico State.

In his first season at New Mexico State, Theus turned the Aggies around: the season prior to Theus' hiring, NM State was 6-24. Theus coached his new team to a 16-14 finish, a 10-game turnaround.

After winning nine more games than his first season and making the Big Dance, Theus landed a five-star recruit in Aliquippa's own Herb Pope. That brings me to my next question: if Theus bolts for bucks, will Pope rethink his enrollment?

Move 'em out, move 'em back
The NCAA rules committee is moving the three-point line back to 20 feet, nine inches. But the committee decided not to expand the lane. Yet.

This is a good decision by the NCAA. I think 3-point shooting is starting to get a little ridiculous in college hoops. Don't get me wrong, I love the 3-pointer. As a player, all I was ever really capable of doing was hitting 3s. Needless to say I rarely hit any shots.

In fact, if I coached a team, I'd hope to stack my lineup with at least four or five guys who can shoot the 3. Not just occasionally step out and drop a trey. I mean my team would shoot 30-40 3s a game.

But that's not the point.

Studies have shown that the increased distance, which was tested at several preseason tournaments, has little effect on the shooting percentages from deep. So, what's the big deal? I just hope it discourages bumbling power forwards from trying to expand their game.

More on this when the Playing Rules Oversight Committee makes the final decision on May 25.

You Know This...

The NCAA banned coaches from text messaging recruits in its newest change of recruiting rules two weeks ago. I'm late on this topic, but I mentioned it in passing when the first news of it popped it. And I guess there's really only one thing I have to say about it, and Jim Calhoun said it perfectly when asked about the ban: no one has gotten a player through text messaging.

Still, the biggest problem with the messages is that they cost money to send and receive. College coaches make six figures. High school basketball players (officially) make maybe four figures over a summer if they have any time to work. And I know the people paying their phone bills probably never liked the 50-plus dollars rolling in each month.

I can see why coaches like text messaging. Obviously it's a quick way to contact a kid. And most kids, if you don't mind me using myself as an example, carry their phones with them all the time.

-- Another rule was approved by the NCAA yesterday. It increased the number of core courses -- which I assume means math, English, social studies, science and physical education -- required for incoming college freshmen from 14 to 16.

-- Mississippi State's Jamont Gordon decided to stay in school. The 6-4 junior-t0-be has significantly improved in each of his first two seasons with the Bulldogs. Expect him to keep developing and help M-State push for an SEC crown.

-- Iowa State was docked two scholarships. Its basketball players failed to meet the minimum academic requirements three years in a row. Does that surprise anyone? This is a school that produced Curtis Stinson, Marcus Fizer and, this is the kicker, Jamaal Tinsley.

-- I'm now taking bets on how soon Rick Majerus will crumble to the hardwood at Saint Louis. And I don't mean fail as a coach.

-- Spencer Hawes needs another year at Washington. He needs to add about 15-20 pounds of muscle and develop his repertoire of post moves.

-- Might as well include Brandan Wright to the list of kids who need to add some muscle.

Oh, and my last parting shot, Michael Jordan's son, Jeffrey Jordan is going to Illinois. In related news, set to be published sometime in 2012, Jeffrey Jordan graduated from Illinois averaging one minute per non-conference game.

Whatchoo talkin' 'bout, Willis?

DJ White will return to Indiana for his senior year. The 6-9 power forward averaged 13.7 points and seven rebounds per game.

Indiana went 21-11 and made the second round of the NCAA Tournament. The Hoosiers dropped a 54-49 decision to eventual Final Four visitors UCLA

Throw in returning contributors AJ Ratliff and Armon Barrett and the No. 6 recruiting class on Scout, and Indiana might be the best team in the Big 10 behind Ohio State (with or without Greg Oden). But Michigan State and Purdue are just ahead of Indiana in the recruiting rankings on Scout. Let's break down the top four teams in next year's Big 10.

The top shooting guard on Scout and No. 2 overall recruit on Rivals, Eric Gordon, a 6-4 stud, will probably get the nod at two. I'll bet on this starting lineup for Kelvin Sampson:

PG Bassett - Soph.
G Gordon - Frosh.
G Ratliff - Senior
F White - Senior
F 6-8 Lance Stemler - Senior

Then consider 6-9 center Eli Holman, a five-star recruit who defends and rebounds well with a lanky frame, will get considerable minutes off the bench. That's a core of six solid players.

Add solid 6-6 forward Mike White and three other highly touted recruits -- 6-4 Jordan Crawford (four stars), 6-5 Jamarcus Ellis (four stars) and 6-7 Brandon McGee (four stars) -- and the Hoosiers aren't just good, they're stacked.

Ohio State returns talent, too
The Buckeyes will reload and retain some talent, with or without Oden. Let's look at this as if Oden leaves, which I think we will eventually do.

Mike Conley, Jr. looked fantastic as the season progressed. He might be the best point guard in the nation with Ty Lawson. Look for him to take over this team.

PG Conley Jr. - soph.
SG Jamar Butler - senior. Averaged 8.3 points per game.
SF Daequan Cook - soph. Will shoot the lights out.
PF Othello Hunter - senior
C Kosta Koufos - frosh

Koufos is seven feet, a five-star recruit and loves to step out. If coach Thad Matta can get him to keep improving his post game, Koufos will be a stud.

Returning wing David Lighty will contribute and develop. Then 6-8 Matt Terwilliger played a lot this year and should play a bigger role in the post.

Four recruits join Koufos in another highly-regarded recruiting class: 6-6 forward Eric Wallace, 6-6 forward Evan Turner, 6-8 center Dallas Lauderdale and 6-4 shooter Jon Diebler. Ohio State might not have the Ron Lewis-Greg Oden combo, but it will have a slew of fantastic wing players.

Purdue stays hot
Sure, Carl Landry and David Teague graduated, but the next six players of the team's top eight scorers from last year are returning. And Purdue has the fourth-best Scout recruiting class.

E'Twuan Moore, a 6-3 shooting guard and five-star recruit, will play right away. That is, if he can defend. Matt Painter will want to keep playing his style of hoops -- physical and defensive.

The Boilermakers will be able to defend as well as they did this year, but now they'll be able to score. At least I think. This is, after all, the Big 10.

Spartans back on the map
After a few years of disappointing seasons, campaigns that fell well short of the preseason expectations of Tom Izzo's teams, Michigan State will be a tough out this year.

Michigan State -- get this -- doesn't graduate a single player from it's roster. The Spartans made the second round of the tournament and pushed UNC for 30 minutes.

Now MSU has Drew Neitzel leading his team for one more season, with everything from draft status to legacy to play for. And Izzo recruited the fifth-best 2007 class on Scout.

Shooting guard Durrell Summers, a 6-4 combination player who shoots the light out or slashes whenever he wants, will get minutes right away. In fact, he might be a better scorer than Neitzel.

Throw in two four-stars, and MSU has plenty of guys to carry this team deep.

More on other conferences later.

Make it rain

The Penguins lost a tough one today. Colby Armstrong earned points by knocking Patrick Eaves into oblivion.

The hit went something like this:

-Eaves collects puck and starts his wraparound
-Eaves puts head down
-Armstrong sails toward Eaves
-Armstrong's shoulder catches Eaves' head
-Eaves head spins like the girl in the Exorist
-Eaves lies on the ice, stretcher carries him off

Not that I condone hits like that, even though this one was legal, but it was a doozy. And certainly worth discussing. But let's be honest, I just led an entry with something about hockey. Must. Scramble. For. New. Topic. Getting. Weak.

-- So the Mavs and Spurs squared off earlier today in a fantastic game. It went down to the wire and featured several runs. The game contained playoff intensity. And, like the color guy said during the broadcast, every coach in the NBA should've had his team watch the game. It was that good. Needless to say the Mavs won, 91-86.

-- Greg Oden's dad said Greg is headed to the draft. His agent, father of Mike Conley, Jr., and yes, that makes him Mike Conley, Sr., said otherwise.

My thoughts? Well, my heart wants Oden to stay -- he was amazing for college hoops and, with Durant, generated the most buzz about a college basketball season that I've ever seen. Sorry, Miles Simon and Mike Bibby.

But my head tells me Oden is going. I mean, why stay? He proved he could compete at the highest level -- 26 points and 12 boards in the title game -- and should be fully healthy in time for training camp. Sure, he lost that title game and the competitor in him might want to stick around and get another shot at it. But when the No. 1 pick is waving in your face, and contracts read seven figures, would you, a 19-year-old manchild, want to stay?

I guess I haven't seen enough Ohio State girls to really decide yet.

-- With Gilbert Arenas out, I don't know if I feel like watching anyone in the Eastern Conference playoffs. Give me Steve Nash and the Suns and Nowitzki and the Mavs, a beer and that'll be good. Thanks.

-- Jeff Green and Roy Hibbert declared for the NBA Draft last week. But no, they didn't sign an agent. So Pitt fans, don't get too excited. If Green and Hibbert bolt for bucks, then Georgetown slides down the rankings in the Big East considerably. But you didn't need me to tell you that, Roc, did you?

-- Barry Bonds hit two home runs Friday night at PNC Park here in the 'Burgh. And, shockingly, the Pirates fall from opening-series grace coincided with Bonds' eruption of power. The Buccos are 0-4 at home.

-- Everything, and I mean everything, was rained out today. But Friday and Saturday, the Red Sox demolished early-season favorites, the LA Angels, in a pair of donnybrooks at Fenway Park. Call me crazy, but if Schilling keeps pitching well (at least like he did against Texas and LA, and not KC) and Wakefield gets some run support, the Sox are going to win the division.

Beckett and Dice-K will be the studs. Julian Tavarez will hold down the fort until stud-to-be Jon Lester comes back. And this rotation, with Timlin appearing healthy enough to return to the bullpen, Brendan Donnelly pitching well and Jon Papelbon closing, will not lose very often.

-- The Yankees' starters are troubled with injuries. My roommate Kyle, an avid Yanks fan (and one of my best friends, go figure), is a little worried. He shouldn't be. The Yankees always find a way. This year will be no different.

-- DeAndre Gordon kept his commitment with Texas A&M, even with Billy Gillispie out as head coach. New head coach Mark Turgeon, who did a fantastic job at Wichita State, kept the 7-footer on board. Rivals rates Gordon eighth. Scout has him 16th. With some studs returning to Turgeon's team, A&M will be tough to beat again in the Big 12.

-- Charlotte Bobby Lutz decided to stay on as coach after South Alabama tried to hire him. Lutz has done a good job at Charlotte and deserves consideration for a lot of jobs. But not at South Alabama.

-- Gregg Marshall is in at Wichita State after helping Winthrop to the second round of the NCAA Tournament. Is the MVC considered a step up? Definitely. Will Marshall be successful at WSU? Maybe not a huge success right away. But he will have the talent and the recruiting ability to make the Shockers competitive year in and year out.

-- The NCAA will address text messaging at its next meeting, where it will also comb over the Division I manual. Maybe it should look at the rules on letters of intent. Centralize that, so players like Michael Beasley can go elsewhere if the coaches who recruited them leave for other jobs. Make it fair.

Oh, and one final thought, Pitt football looked awful at its Blue-Gold game on Saturday. I'm gonna call it 3-9. You heard it here first.

You turn me right 'round, baby, right 'round

The hoops carousel is spinning faster than Bob Huggins' wheels as he peels out in front of his Manhattan, Kansas home. And I have to be honest, some of the decisions won't reap benefits right away.

The biggest job opening in the off-season, obviously, was at Kentucky. I've often said that Kentucky, right there with UCLA and Indiana, is one of the top three jobs at this level. These schools have the history, the mystique and the shine that the Alabama A&M job lacks. First, let's rank the top 10 jobs in college hoops. They get to that level because regardless of the coach, the program will be good. You'll notice most of them are basketball-first schools, too. Coincidence?

1. UCLA
2. Kentucky
3. Indiana
4. North Carolina
5. Kansas
6. Duke
7. Georgetown
8. Ohio State
9. Michigan State
10. Cincinnati
10a. Louisville
10b. Michigan
10c. Connecticut
10d. Syracuse

So, naming No. 10 turned out to be harder than I thought. And Nos. 7-9 are debatable, too.

Nonetheless, let's shake down the teams that hired newbies and how they'll fit in at their new schools.

Kentucky hired Texas A&M boy wonder, Billy Gillispie, took bring the Wildcats into a new era -- the post-Tubby Smith, first-round-and-done era. Granted, Smith won the title in his first year. And he won five SEC titles and five SEC Tournament championships. And he went to six Sweet 16s and four Elite Eights. So...why were fans so furious with him again?

Because he didn't add to his ring collection. And for that reason alone, Smith escaped the pressure of the job for the sweet air of the Greater Midwest. Now he will coach in a much friendlier atmosphere and work hard to bring a program back fromt he dead at Minnesota.

Gillispie's style is similar to Smith's. But Gillispie might be a better developer of talent. Smith got great recruits. Any coach at Kentucky can get great recruits. But Gillispie's style might help players, McDonald's All-Americans no less, improve their games to a higher level. While I think it'll be hard for Gillispie to win a title his first year, he certainly has the players in place to play his style of ball -- a grind it out, defensive game -- and be successful.

Michigan got the best coach in college basketball -- yeah, I said it -- in John Beilein. Beilein left his extremely comfortable job in West Virginia, where he turned dirt into diamonds three years in a row, for the ho-hum neighborhoods of Ann Arbor, Michigan. (I guess Morgantown, West Virginia is ho-hum, too).

But will Beilein's style of play be instituted with the athletic group of guys he's going to inherit? I just don't see the Wolverines winning a bunch the first season. You don't just learn the 1-3-1 and execute right away. And the two most prolific 3-point shooters on last year's Michigan team are leaving. So Beilein, whose teams never had a boat load of talent, will have his work cut out for him. But still, Beilein will get them to be competitive. Give him one year, and in the 2008-2009 season, Michigan will be among the top dogs in the Big 10.

West Virginia hired its prodigal son Bob Huggins. Huggins will take over a team filled with Beilein's unathletic, rag-tag misfits. Beilein got the most of them. Can Huggins? His style, a man-to-man defense with brutal toughness and physical emphasis, might not fit these guys. But, like Beilein, he is a very good coach. He will develop them and bring in his style players with his first recruiting class.

It's time to start shaking, Pitt fans.

Michael Beasley got screwed. The No. 1 power forward on Scout.com and No. 1 overall player on Rivals.com is headed to Kansas State.

He signed with Huggins. Huggins left. Beasley wants out of his committal. Kansas State doesn't allow players to pull out. Trouble ensues. He told reporters last week that he liked Memphis, Florida State and NC State. I mean, that's weird, but I guess when you are strange enough to pick Manhattan, Kansas -- Huggins or no Huggins -- as your college of choice, FSU and NC State wouldn't look so bad after all.

I'm out. E-mail me at jag59@pitt.edu and we'll chat hoops.

HOOPS FROM THE SHARK TANK

I have very little to do until tonight's Pitt-UCLA showdown, previewed by our fine newspaper, so I'm going to write a little bit before the Kansas-Southern Illinois game.

First and foremost, HP Pavilion, a.k.a. the Shark Tank, is not that big. In fact, it's smaller than HSBC Arena where we were last week. Nothing compares to the Palace at Auburn Hills last year, but this year Pitt is actually in the Sweet 16. No more of this one and done stuff.

Second, I am maybe three steps off the floor here. Brandon Rush's "Unforgivable" by Sean John caught my nose while he stood for the national anthem. OK, that's a lie. But he was close. Jay Bilas, Ric Bucher and Jay Mariotti are in the house for tonight's game. I heard Mark Schlabach was also here. Kansas turns some heads around the media, I guess.

Third, Tubby Smith left Kentucky today for Minnesota. Of all the places Smith could go, he headed for Minnesota. Go figure. Anyway, read the story -- there are some pretty marquee names, as I'd expect, listed as potential replacements at Kentucky: Billy Donovan, Jay Wright, Rick Barnes, Tom Izzo, Tom Crean, Billy Gillespie, John Calipari, Mark Few and even Mike Brey are included.

OK, let's get some quick hitters.

Kansas is just too talented for Southern Illinois. I see Southern Illinois making this a tough out for the Jayhawks, but Kansas has the horses to overcome the pressure. The Salukis don't score as easily and, as we saw with Wisconsin, if you can't score, you will be knocked out.

KANSAS 65, SOUTHERN ILLINOIS 57

Pitt is due to win a big game on a big stage. And what stage is bigger than this one? Sweet 16, Dixon-Howland, Shark Tank...Anyway, the guards are real tough, obviously, for UCLA, but I think analysts around the nation forget Pitt's guards are tough, too. Gray and Kendall will combine with Young to be too tough for the inside guys on UCLA. Throw in Mike Cook playing well and I see Pitt getting easier hoops than people might think.

PITT 72, UCLA 62

Yeah, I said it. Check tomorrow's Pitt News for the Pitt-UCLA game story. Enjoy the games while I enjoy San Jose, California.

One more thing

Go on ESPN.com and read the college basketball section. Peter Tiernan and a group of researchers uncovered statistical trends that refute nearly every age-old recipe for success in the NCAA tournament.

Someone who, like in those commercials on TV, is talking out of their butts, would tell you, after watching three games from November to February, that they are experts on college hoops. Then they'll tell you three things:

1) Guard play has to be great to win games in the NCAA tournament
2) Balanced scoring has to be present to win games in the NCAA tournament
3) And senior leadership is hugely important

Don't listen to them. Let them tank in your bracket pool. The key indicators for success in the tournament, as exposed in this study, are:

1) Big margins of victory (over 14 ppg)
2) 60 percent of team scoring from the frontcourt
3) Experienced coaching

Those indicators have stats to back them up. That means Pitt needs Levon Kendall and Sam Young to contribute big time.

That is a problem.

Kendall can't shoot to save his life. The old pick-and-pop doesn't work when he misses his jumpers. Teams leave him open for those and send an extra rebounder to the basket. He gives up to much room in the paint. He gets pushed around. As head coach Jamie Dixon tells us, he does all the little things. Well, maybe he could hit a shot or four, too.

Young, on the other hand, is the polar opposite when it comes to the little things. He is always, always napping on defense, out of position and undersized. Washington's Jon Brockman made Young look like his little brother trying to guard him in the post. If you concede position two feet from the basket, the battle is over. Then when you consider Young's proclivity for 15 footers, it's no wonder he takes hits with his minutes.

Will the real Sam Young please stand up? Twenty-one points against WVU wedged by nonperformances against EVERYONE ELSE. C'mon, man, are you going to try or not? No more blow-bys, please. Kendall, that goes for you, too.

If you held a gun to my head and told me to forecast Pitt's performance in the tournament, I'd say a second-round loss to a 6, 7, 10 or 11 seed. I hate to say it. And I'll hate to say I told you so.

Updates

It's been 11 days since I last posted, so there's lots to cover. First, there are arguably seven good teams in college hoops. Eight on a good day. And I can't express that enough. No one is good outside of those eight. The age-old saying was that champs often come from the second shelf -- the No. 6-15 ranked teams. But this year's group lags. No talent. No signs of life. No one wants to be ranked after the top eight. Everyone else loses when they shouldn't.

Enough furious ranting. Let's update a few things.

One seeds -- Florida, UCLA, Wisconsin, Ohio State
- Yes, I still rate those four ahead of the others, even with some questionable stumbles over the past weeks
Two seeds -- North Carolina, Texas A&M, Kansas, Pitt
- UNC and A&M could jump to the top line if UCLA, 'consin or State stumble. Kansas and Pitt are at their peak positions. Any bad losses could drop them to 3s.
Three seeds -- Washington State, Memphis, Nevada, Georgetown
- I think Wazzou and Memphis could jump to 2s if KU and Pitt struggle over the next two weeks. I think Nevada and Georgetown would have to win impressively to move any higher. Nothing wrong with a 3.
Four seeds -- Butler, Southern Illinois, Air Force, Kentucky
- How about that for mid-major influence? With Nevada at a 3 and Butler, SIU and Air Force at 4s, it'd be hard to root for Cinderellas. Kentucky's in because of its RPI.

Hot -- Kansas, Georgetown, Louisville, Winthrop, Purdue, SIU, BYU, Nevada
Not -- Clemson, New Mexico State, Arkansas, Oregon, Northern Iowa, Michigan, Oklahoma State, Texas Tech, Marquette, Florida State

Notice how many teams I've listed as struggling?

Improving its chances of getting in -- Providence. With wins over scrappy St. John's and No. 22/18 West Virginia put the Friars back on the bubble after a tough pair of road losses to Pitt and Notre Dame.

Michigan State. Couldn't have asked for a bigger night out of Drew Neitzel. Big, big win over Wisconsin puts them back in the discussion. Pretty much should be in with that win.

Killing its chances of getting in -- Florida State. Four-game losing streaks don't generally reflect well. Big three games at Maryland, home versus NC State and at Miami (FL). Might not be enough.

Oklahoma. If the Sooners ever appeared in the conversation with the four-game winning stretch, they couldn't appear more out of it now with a three-game skid.

Game of the week Georgetown-Pitt. This game is for the regular season crown. I don't care if both teams have two games following the game and Georgetown still has one before Pitt, this is it.

Another Big Saturday

A lot of things happened already this afternoon in college hoops.

-- Georgetown slaughtered Marquette in D.C. to take possession of second place in the Big East.

-- Dominic James apparently left his shooting touch in January. After today's game, he's 5 of 35 from the field in the last three games.

At times, James appears out of control and in his own little world. The 5-11 guard runs one-on-three and one-on-four breaks, attempting to slice through the lane or pull up. But his jumper has never been that great.

The benefit of him being a sophomore is that he can still work on his mid- and long-range jumpers. The problem is, in the meantime, he makes things awfully frustrating for his teammates.

-- On the flip side, Georgetown is on a seven-game win streak. The Hoyas are right back where they started the season -- in second place in the Big East. I say that because G'Town was widely selected to either win the Big East or take second. It is now in good position to at least tie for first with a win against Pitt Feb. 24 in D.C.

-- Pitt's RPI will get a major boost after West Virginia toppled UCLA in Morgantown this afternoon. I doubt that game, paired with Marquette's loss, will be enough to push Pitt into No. 1 chatter because Ohio State held off Purdue and Wisconsin outlasted Iowa. But the Panthers will inch closer. Needless to say, UCLA is probably still on the top shelf as far as seeds go.

-- Austin Peay held off Samford to maintain its lead in conference. As of right now, AP is probably pushing for a 13 or 14 seed. A loss there might've pushed them farther down the chain.

-- Va. Tech is killing, and I mean killing, Virginia right now. After ESPN put the Cavs' two best players on its front page, I guess that's the payback.

-- Creighton and Southern Illinois meet tonight at 6:30 in a huge battle for MVC supremacy. SIU holds the conference lead, but the Bluejays can make strides back into the race with a win.

-- VCU is watching the Hofstra-George Mason contest with frightened eyes after losing a rough road game. The CAA race could tighten up after VCU lost today, its second loss in the last week.

-- Tennessee killed Vandy, pushing the Commodores off their momentum swing. The Vols needed Chris Lofton back.

Mock Bracket Mocks Bracket

Twenty sports media members picked their NCAA tournament field for 2007 in the Mock Bracket exercise in Indianapolis.

Pitt is seeded in the East Rutherford region with its first- and second-round games in Buffalo. With all due respect, when I go to the NCAA tournament to cover Pitt basketball, I want to go to an exciting place.

What are my options for 2007? For the first- and second-round games, these cities host:

Sacramento -- Pretty sweet trip to Cali, but Pitt will never be shipped there in a pod as the top seed given every other city is closer
Buffalo -- Cold. Just...cold.
Columbus -- I mean, Ohio? Ohio.
Chicago -- This would be cool. I haven't been to Chi-town enough
New Orleans -- A few years ago, it would've been a party. Now, it would be an unreal experience. I could handle it
Spokane -- Eastern Washington meet watching paint dry. Paint, meet Spokane
Winston-Salem -- I've entered North Carolina. I've left North Carolina. And I want to keep it that way
Lexington -- Could this be? A return to my place of birth? Well. Not likely. Pitt has a very small chance of being sent there. The Panthers would have to lose out.

But more importantly, this simulated "Selection Committee" put Pitt as the No. 3 seed. That means there are at least eight teams better than the Panthers. Who did the Committee deem superior to the Big East leaders?

UCLA -- OK
Marquette -- Well, it did beat Pitt in the Petersen Events Center...but Pitt is winning the Big East. Which is more important?
Wisconsin -- The Badgers beat Pitt
Texas A&M -- Probably right there with UCLA as the best defensive team in the nation
UNC -- Duh
Kansas -- Ahead of Pitt? Really? I guess beating Florida helps when compared to a whopping 0-3 against top 25 teams
Florida -- Well, yeah.
Ohio State -- You're telling me you'd rather have Greg Oden than Aaron Gray?! Yeah, me too.

I'd have to say that Pitt winning the Big East regular season title would push them to a No. 2. And furthermore, if the Panthers win the Big East tournament, they are definitely a 2 seed.

In my opinion, there are three teams I can't imagine Pitt beating on that list -- Florida, UCLA and UNC. The Panthers could compete -- and I emphasize "could" -- with Ohio State and Wisconsin. And I certainly think Pitt is in the same class as Texas A&M, Kansas and Marquette.

Beating Georgetown and Marquette in their lairs would help Pitt's case. But that's a tall order. A safer bet is splitting those games and the Panthers winning the BEast in New York City. Assuming Pitt wins all of its other games, that would leave the Panthers at 30-4 if they won the BEast tourney.

If that's not a 2 seed then I don't know what is. But still, that's a lot of prognostication for an early-February post.

But I still see teams in the field, according to these "experts," that don't belong there or are seeded way too high.

Arizona a No. 7 seed?
Creighton a No. 9 seed?
Gonzaga a No. 7?
Florida State a No. 6?
Kentucky a 3?
Villanova a 6?
Washington State a 3?!?!

Here are teams that got shafted by this Mock Bracket...

Southern Illinois as a 5
Clemson as an 11
UNLV as a 9
Butler as a 4
Kansas State as an 11
Pitt as a 3
Oregon as a 4
Air Force as a 5
Virginia Tech as an 8

And that's it. That's all I have for today. Boy, I was busy. As Jim Jones would say, "Postin'!"

See yinz guys tomorrow.

Young's O key for Pitt - Sports

We've spent the last week bashing bloggers and blogmasters in my Great American Journalists class. The class is registered as a nonfiction class and we study journalism from myriad angles -- photojournalism, sports writing, covering campaigns, etc.

Very exciting. The class is actually my favorite class right there with American foreign policy. It's interesting. But I liked that people bashed bloggers. I'm not really a true blogger -- it's not what I strive to do. I feel like blogging is a way for me to put my thoughts on...well, a computer screen. So I decided to post today.

-- I went to West Virginia last night. It was dark, so I can't necessarily report on the scenery from outside the WVU Coliseum. But at roughly 6:30 p.m., I entered the illustrious home of the West Virginia Mountaineers for a showdown of epic proportions.

The stadium was filled with raucous fans. The student section took up an entire side of the stadium. Hint: Pitt -- maybe the Pete could use more seats for the Oakland Zoo. Anyway, the WVU fans were a little offensive -- "Gray's a fa***t" was their favorite chant -- and I didn't like that so much. I mean, everyone is entitled to their opinion, but I've seen Grayzilla macking Pitt girls. Hell, he's probably macked WVU girls.

I also noticed a massive influx of camoflauge hats and pants. I would not go to WVU basketball games if I were a deer. Or a bear for that matter. Or an employer on the brink of firing an employee.

But let's talk about the game itself.

-- West Virginia (18-5, 7-4 in the Big East) looked overmatched from the get-go, hitting 3 of their 16 first-half 3-pointers. Pitt led 27-17 at the half. Sam Young keyed everything, looking healthy (finally) and giddy to get some minutes.

Young's O key for Pitt - Sports

I was impressed with the pressure the Mountaineers put on the ball (as usual) with their 1-3-1 zone. It has potential to cause problems in the first and second rounds of the NCAA tournament.

But is WVU a credible team to make a run in the tournament? At this point, I'd say no. But there are really only three teams in the Big East capable of doing that -- Pitt, Marquette and Georgetown -- and we all know how capable each of those programs are of choking. Throw in Notre Dame as a very, very iffy team. The Fighting Irish could make a run. Or they could lose to Oral Roberts in the 5-12 game. Don't get me wrong -- I liked reading about Oral Roberts, the man (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oral_Roberts) -- ORU is a quality team that could pull an upset, but Notre Dame is a better club. And that would be an embarrassing loss for the Big East.

As you probably know by now, WVU lives and dies by the 3 ball. And if a team defends them well man-to-man, the Mountaineers might bounce out early.

-- Pitt (21-3, 9-1 in the Big East) looked great. The Panthers defended extremely well, challenging every shot (for the most part) and staving a late WVU rally. Good teams coast all game and win close games by the skin of their teeth. Great teams respond to the runs made by the opponent and hits daggers at key spots to kill the comebacks. Pitt did just that last night. Ronald Ramon hit back-to-back 3-pointers to distance Pitt from WVU midway through the half and Young hit a HUGE 3 with four minutes left to crush a 12-0 WVU run.

Against tougher opponents, Pitt will need to defend like it did last night. And if it does, Pitt will definitely have a good shot at Atlanta at the end of March.

-- It was great to see Duke lose, by the way. The Blue Devils actually put up a good fight, but all that matters is that they lost.

-- Pitt fans: don't sleep on Providence when it comes to town Saturday. The Friars are young, gritty and not afraid of anyone. Plus they need a marquee road win. But Pitt is pretty much unbeatable at the Pete (let's just excuse the Marquette loss as a legitimate loss to a legitimate team).

I'll take the Panthers by six. (If this game were in Providence, I might waver.)

-- As I type, I catch updates of news. Sometimes I'll mention a news snippet and comment. Other times, I'll mention something. Anna Nicole Smith apparently just died.

-- There is a noticeable problem in the middle of the Big East -- nobody wants to separate. Let's watch this weekend:

Saturday
'Nova at Seton Hall
Marquette at Georgetown
South Florida at Louisville
Providence at Pitt

Sunday
St. John's at Syracuse

'Nova, 'Cuse, Louisville and Providence are all at critical points. 'Nova and Louisville have quality wins to hold up if they lose this weekend, but PC and Syracuse need big wins now. Syracuse will have to get theirs some other way, because beating St. John's at home isn't going to wrinkle the Selection Committee's collective tie. PC has a shot this weekend to get a gigantic win at Pitt to match its home win over Marquette. We have to see what these guys are made of.

-- OK, more at a later date. Probably after Pitt-PC Saturday.

-- And if you hold a gun to my head, I'll pick some more bubble teams. Comment, comment, comment. I like hearing other college hoops fans opinions. C'mon!

My Bracketology

Here is my tournament field if the selection committee met today. And I promise, it's more reliable than Joe Lunardi.

1 seeds: Florida, UCLA, UNC, Wisconsin
2 seeds: Kansas, Pitt, Texas A&M, Oregon
3 seeds: Memphis, Oklahoma State, Marquette, Duke
4 seeds: Butler, Air Force, Notre Dame, Kentucky
5 seeds: Washington State, Indiana, Virginia Tech, Nevada
6 seeds: Southern Illinois, Clemson, Alabama, Georgetown
7 seeds: USC, West Virginia, UNLV, Michigan State
8 seeds: Tennessee, Texas, Virginia, Louisville
9 seeds: Florida State, Stanford, Vanderbilt, Gonzaga
10 seeds: New Mexico State, Creighton, Boston College, Arkansas
11 seeds: George Washington, Missouri State, Texas Tech, Syracuse
12 seeds: VCU, Arizona, Wichita State, Providence
13 seeds: Winthrop, Vermont, Akron, Oral Roberts
14 seeds: South Alabama, Texas A&M-Corpus Christi, Davidson, Austin Peay
15 seeds: Weber State, East Tennessee State, Cal State-Fullerton, Holy Cross
16 seeds: Central Connecticut State, Loyola (Md.), Penn
Play-in game: Delaware State vs. Jackson State

How bad are the teams between, I don't know, the No. 4 and No. 16 seeds? This might be the worst tournament ever.

Just Some Quick Updates

It's been a little while so why not bring people out there in BlogLand back up to speed? There have been a couple you-might-not-care-now-but-you-will-when-the-season-starts signings in the Major Leagues and I thought we'd start with those. Then we can begin my Bubble Watch and Tournament Chat. To the baseball stuff first:

-- The Mariners have quietly developed a decent rotation after losing Jamie Moyer, Gil Meche and Joel Piniero. They are in the final stages of signing Jeff Weaver (one year, $8.25 million). Now Weaver isn't a fantastic signing in that he'll turn the franchise around. But give him credit, he has some decent to above average stuff that should solidify the backend of Seattle's rotation.

Joining the ranks of the Ms are Horacio Ramirez and Miguel Batista. Ramirez came over from Atlanta in exchange for Rafael Soriano. Batista inked a three-year deal. Again, no front-end signings, but guys that fill the 3-5 slots in the rotation. With Batista, Ramirez and Weaver at the tail end of the roto, and Jarrod Washburn and an improving Felix Hernandez, Seattle might have a team that can compete again.

-- JD Drew finally agreed in full to play in a Red Sox uniform for 2007. Apparently there was some debate over Drew's shoulder and its health. The Sox didn't want to agree to anything until the doubts were snuffed out.

-- The Phils establishing Chase Utley and Jimmy Rollins means they might actually have a core of players ready to take the team to the next level. The trade for Freddy Garcia certainly helps. Throw in Ryan Howard's inability to leave until at least 2010 or 2011, and the Phillies are in good shape.

OK, those are the biggest stories as of late in the Major Leagues. To hoops:

Here are the top 8 teams in the country according to yours truly:

1. Florida -- even though I think it will do something to lose in March, probably over the second weekend (Sweet 16, Elite Eight)
2. UCLA -- love the defensive ability of the club.
3. Wisconsin -- it has the player to lead them (Alando Tucker) but I won't be sold until Ohio State gets its shot at the Badgers in Columbus. Still, the win at home against the Buckeyes, and wins over Pitt, Michigan, at Illinois and at Marquette all make Wisconsin a legitimate top seed.
4. UNC -- duh. Do I even need to talk about the reasons the Tar Heels are here?
5. Ohio State -- the Buckeyes lost twice in the only two games I've seen them play (both road losses), yet in both games, I was extremely impressed.
6. Texas A&M -- the Aggies have the defense to make anyone uncomfortable.
7. Pitt -- still need a marquuee win against a ranked opponent, but the Big East is awful.
8. Oregon -- I love the Ducks. If Aaron Brooks can stay healthy, they will be tough all year.
8a. Kansas -- so talented, so inconsistent

One the Bubble Watch to start the conversation...
Boston College 14-5 6-1 in the ACC RPI: 40 SOS: 36
-- Face it, beating FSU and Virginia in Cambridge aren't the marquee wins BC needs. Being killed by Kansas, Clemson and Vermont and losing to Duquesne makes me wonder if they are legit.
Virginia 12-6 4-2 in the ACC RPI: 92 SOS: 64
-- Wins over Maryland, Gonzaga and Arizona are nice, but a loss to Appalachain State looks bad. Big chances for big wins were missed in the three-game losing streak (Stanford, @ UNC, @BC).
Florida State 14-6 2-4 in the ACC RPI: 22 SOS: 11
-- Should be in unless something goes horribly awry
Georgia Tech 13-6 2-4 in the ACC RPI: 33 SOS: 35
-- Wins over Duke, Memphis, Purdue and FSU are solid but the Yellow Jackets need seven or eight conference wins and the schedule doesn't get any easier -- Va. Tech, Clemson, UConn (out of conference but HUGE for both teams), at FSU, at Duke, at Virginia, UNC and BC.

Xavier 14-6 4-2 in the A-10 RPI: 50 SOS: 43
-- As I'll say about the next two teams, Xavier probably has to win the conference tournament or win the regular season title with at least 12 conference wins and get to the conference tourney title game.
UMass 14-6 4-2 in the A-10 RPI: 69 SOS: 146
-- Both RPI and SOS are killing them. Plus, they needed to beat URI and Xavier, and failed in both tries. A win over Louisville in December won't carry much weight with the selection committee.
GW 14-4 5-1 in the A-10 RPI: 78 SOS: 179
-- The Colonials are behind Texas A&M-Corpus Christi in the RPI and the SOS is awful. They have get some big wins in conference and make a run in the tournament.
URI 13-8 6-1 in the A-10 RPI: 141 SOS: 150
-- If the Rams keep winning the conference, the RPI will improve. Right now, they're on the list because I think they might keep winning.

Louisville 14-6 4-2 in the Big East RPI: 79 SOS: 49
-- Big wins over Providence, UConn and at DePaul in conference are key. Still, room for improvement and some chances to get upper-level wins are on the horizon.
Providence 13-6 3-3 in the Big East RPI: 55 SOS: 45
-- Wins over BC, Marquette and GW are quality, but losses to Brown, Florida State (by30) and Seton Hall hurt. The Friars have more chances for marquee wins: at UConn, at Marquette, at Pitt, at Notre Dame, West Virginia, Syracuse and a home and home with St. John's give PC a couple good spots to step up and get big wins. Going 4-4 or 5-3 in that stretch might put them over the top.

Purdue 13-7 2-4 in the Big 10 RPI: 46 SOS: 19
-- A very strong SOS and RPI will help the Boilermakers, but they'll need to start winning the Big 10 if they want to stay that high in the ratings.

Texas 14-5 4-1 in the Big 12 RPI: 56 SOS: 91
-- A couple of tough losses on national TV hurt the Longhorns' chances, but if the selection committee is anything like me, it'll want to see Kevin Durant in the tourney.
Kansas State 14-6 3-2 in the Big 12 RPI: 49 SOS: 77
-- Without Bill Walker, the Wildcats could have some trouble getting wins in conference. But games at Texas, at Kansas and at OK State give them three solid chances to pick up a win.

Hofstra 15-5 8-1 in the CAA RPI: 64 SOS: 140
-- The Pride are 15-2 since their rough 0-3 start, with wins over St. Joe's and St. John's. Still, they'll probably have to win the conference regular or postseason title to get in.
Drexel 15-4 7-2 in the CAA RPI: 41 SOS: 106
-- Bruiser Flint has a winner in Philly. His Dragons topped Syracuse, Villanova, St. Joe's and MAC-leading Toledo. A solid resume, but they'll need to do well the rest of the way in conference to avoid any questions.

Creighton 13-7 7-3 in the MVC RPI: 45 SOS: 29
-- A good start in the MVC puts the Bluejays (yes, it's officially one word) in the thick of the Bubble. Beating Xaiver, Missouri State twice and at Northern Iowa helps the cause. Still, they missed chances for good out-of-conference wins in losing to Nebraska and Dayton.
Northern Iowa 15-5 6-3 in the MVC RPI: 44 SOS: 101
-- The Panthers won their in-state contests with Iowa and Iowa State, and myriad wins in conference help. They'll need 12 conference wins and a showing in the semifinals of the MVC tourney.
Bradley 15-7 6-4 in the MVC RPI: 34 SOS: 12
-- Crushed DePaul and Rutgers, hung with Illinois and beat Iowa State. The Braves need to keep winning in conference and probably, like Northern Iowa, get 12 wins and a good tourney showing.
Missouri State 14-7 5-5 in the MVC RPI: 31 SOS: 21
-- A .500 record in the MVC isn't the same as a .500 record in any of the power conferences. It's not much worse, but it's not on that par. So the Bears need to step it up. Still, the win over Wisconsin and three-point loss to OK State help. But Mizzou State has to rebound from its recent three-game skid.
Wichita State 13-8 4-6 in the MVC RPI: 61 SOS: 37
-- In the what-have-you-done-for-me-lately mindset of the selection committee, the Shockers are in trouble. Wins at LSU and Syracuse help their cause, but that was so long ago that the 4-6 MVC record hurts WSU's image.

BYU 14-6 4-2 in the Mountain West RPI: 53 SOS: 50
-- Yes, I included the Mormons on this list. The RPI and SOS are nice and high, so why not? Beat Seton Hall and San Diego State.
Colorado State 14-5 4-3 in the Mountain West RPI: 71 SOS: 149
-- Win over Kansas State is huge for the resume. Loss to Wyoming? Not so much. The Rams need to do better in their conference and do well in the tournament to have a shot.

Stanford 13-5 5-3 in the Pac 10 RPI: 37 SOS: 22
-- Being in the Pac 10 helps the Cardinal in terms of RPI and SOS. HUGE win over USC yesterday helps even more. Wins over Texas Tech, Virginia and Washington State might put them over the edge.

Vanderbilt 14-6 4-2 in the SEC RPI: 67 SOS: 70
-- Beat Georgia Tech, Tennessee, Alabama, Kentucky AND LSU. If the Commodores keep winning, they will be off the Bubble. Those conference wins are huge.
Tennessee 14-6 2-3 in the SEC RPI: 18 SOS: 9
-- The ratings here would imply that I'm crazy. But losing four out of their last five hurts the Vols. They'll need to recover some momentum before they are safely in.
Arkansas 13-7 2-4 in the SEC RPI: 28 SOS: 7
-- Great ratings paired with wins over West Virginia, Alabama and LSU help the Razorbacks. But, like the Vols, losing four of the last five contests hinders the 'Backs resume from appealing to me.
Ole Miss 13-7 2-4 in the SEC RPI: 94 SOS: 130
-- Yeah, yeah, the ratings are awful. But beating Tennesse and Arkansas helps. Still, the Rebels are 2-5 in their last seven, and show few signs of turning it around. Placement on the Bubble is purely a formality.
Auburn 13-8 3-3 in the SEC RPI: 103 SOS: 51
-- The Tigers conference wins (Tennessee, Alabama and Vandy) and solid showings against OK State, Pitt and LSU help. If Auburn keeps winning tough games in the conference, it could sneak in the tournament as a 12 or 13 at-large.

Santa Clara 14-6 4-1 in the WCC RPI: 72 SOS: 75
-- Winning at Stanford doesn't outweigh the awful blowouts against Cal, Missouri State, Kentucky and Air Force. Losing to Gonzaga probably hurt the Broncos' chances.
Gonzaga 13-7 4-1 in the WCC RPI: 57 SOS: 27
-- Huge wins over UNC, Texas and Washington help. But the Bulldogs' loss to St. Mary's (CA) in conference leaves them tied with Santa Clara. They'll need to beat the Broncos again and hope to go undefeated in the WCC from here on out. A 5-6 run over the last 11 games makes things rather dangerous down the stretch in terms of "going in strong." Still, expect the Zags to pull it out in the conference tourney.

New Mexico State 16-4 6-1 WAC RPI: 66 SOS: 206
-- The strength of schedule KILLS the Aggies. They haven't won against anyone good out of conference. A major win against Nevada definitely helps their chances -- the Wolfpack are definites for the tourney.
Utah State 15-5 4-2 in the WAC RPI: 68 SOS: 190
-- Yet another WAC team with a whack nonconference schedule. Terrible joke. Anyway, two meetings each with Nevada and New Mexico State remain on the Aggies' schedule. That means there is still a big chance for the Aggies to make some noise.


Well that's it for this Bubble. Talk to you all soon enough.