It's only the first week of January and conference play is just starting up, but it's hard to ignore the teams that have failed to live up to expectations so far. Let's run down a list of five teams that have been huge disappointments so far. And I want to mention the caveat that these teams could easily improve with about half of a season to play still.
OK, so here's the list. It's based on preseason ranks and expectations. The AP preseason rank is listed first, coaches' poll second.
5. North Carolina (6, 4): The Tar Heels (11-4) are returning champs and stacked with talent. Yes, there have been some injuries to key players (Marcus Ginyard, Will Graves). And it's not like UNC has lost four terrible games -- only one ... at College of Charleston -- but it'd be nice for the Heels to win a big game or two to make us feel warm and fuzzy.
You can't play down the early-season struggles of a team that features one of the top NBA prospects in America (Ed Davis) and a veritable who's who list of former McDonald's All-Americans. I can only assume the Heels will get it together for conference play. But for now, it's been a pretty disappointing start for the defending champs.
4. Illinois (23, NR): These days, the Fighting Illini are usually good for 20 wins, maybe a third- or fourth-place finish in the Big Ten and a first- or second-round loss in the NCAAs. That's not exactly a bad thing. But once again, there's plenty of talent on Bruce Weber's roster.
And that's why it's disappointing that Illinois (10-5) is off to just an OK start. Losses to Utah, Bradley, Georgia, Missouri and Gonzaga have the Illini in a tough spot. Weber's crew has three solid wins: Clemson, Vanderbilt and Northwestern. But five nonconference losses prior to a rugged Big Ten slate means that Illinois has to try to get to at least 11 wins in the conference to stay in a good spot.
3. California (13, 12): Cal was supposed to be the best team in the Pac-10. And it's not like the 9-5 Bears are terrible. But Mike Montgomery has a team that should be at the top of heap in the conference and in the running for a nice seed and favorable region in March. Instead, the Bears have whiffed on four chances for great resume wins (Syracuse, Ohio State, New Mexico, Kansas).
And then there's the loss to UCLA. Seriously? UCLA? I know there have been some injury problems and size was always going to be an issue for Cal, but even after three straight blowouts (including one against Stanford), losing to UCLA this year is not a good sign.
2. Oklahoma (17, 16): The Sooners have the talent (notice the running theme?). We were ready to commit to Oklahoma as the third wheel in the Big 12. Then, a few things happened: The Sooners lost to VCU, San Diego and Houston in a five-day span. And then Kansas State, Texas Tech and Texas A&M started playing well.
And here we are: Oklahoma is probably, at best, going to finish sixth in the Big 12. With Willie Warren back and Tiny Gallon coming in, and several other solid players on the roster, it looked like Oklahoma would be fine. But the post-Griffin brother era in Norman is not going as well as planned.
Bonus: UCLA (NR): No, the Bruins weren't ranked in either poll to start the season (although they were receiving votes). No, they weren't expected to be anything overly exciting. But they are UCLA. And there's no shortage of talent on Ben Howland's bench. So, where's the beef?
The Bruins are 7-8, albeit 2-1 in the Pac-10, with losses to ... drumroll please ... Cal State Fullerton, Portland, Butler, Long Beach State, Kansas, Mississippi State, Notre Dame and Arizona. Couple of bad apples in there, huh? But wins over Arizona State and (as we already covered) Cal have Howland's crew thinking positive.
1. Michigan (15, 15): The No. 15 team in both preseason polls, Michigan is 7-6 and in a lot of trouble. The Wolverines have to finish in the top four of the conference -- meaning 12 wins or so -- to even have a prayer at making the NCAAs as an at-large team. Losing to Kansas and Marquette isn't exactly terrible, but Utah, BC, Alabama and Indiana? Not ideal.
And it doesn't get any easier. There's a four-game stretch starting January 17 where Michigan plays UConn, at Wisconsin, at Purdue and then Michigan State. As Jerry Seinfeld says, good luck with all that.
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