Wednesday, November 07, 2007

Let's go!

The long layoff from summer until now cannot and will not be explained. My reasons are not good enough. Let's just say laziness is a characteristic of mine. And I've been awfully busy.

But what else could lure me back to blogging than college hoops? Nothing beats 'em. So today I have some projections and some analysis.

First, let's talk Big East hoops. I like Louisville and Georgetown to finish 1-2. Those two slots could go either way. After those two clubs, there is a dropoff from national title contenders to Sweet 16 teams. Of the remaining 14 teams in the Big East, I really only see two teams as darkhorse candidates to make a run to the Final Four.

Here are my Big East rankings, with explanations attached...
1. Louisville -- I like the strong group returning and the coach on the sidelines. These guys impressed me a lot last year, and the talent on the floor mixed with the style of play means a combination fit for contention.
2. Georgetown -- Roy Hibbert and Scott Padgett (Louisville's big man) are the two best big men in the Big East. But what people keep forgetting is the slew of talent piled up around Hibbert. Jonathan Wallace is a fantastic point guard and a lethal shooter. DaJuan Summers and Patrick Ewing Jr. are pretty darn good, too. Throw in a group of quality returning reserves and a great recruiting class, and a return to the Final Four isn't crazy.
3. Syracuse -- I'm banking on the new guys. I like do-it-all Paul Harris. While I think Eric Devendorf is a gunner and not that great, I think the presence of the incoming guards and the improved play of the returnees can off-set Devendorf's annoying style of play.
4. Connecticut -- Jeff Adrien might be the most underrated forward in the league if Providence's Geoff McDermott didn't exist. I think the shooting will improve this year. This can happen for two reasons: everyone is a year older and more mature, and Hasheem Thabeet and Adrien will collapse defenses more this year than last.
5. Marquette -- The Golden Eagles are stacked on the perimeter. Who wouldn't love a three-guard tandem of Jerel McNeal, Wesley Matthews and Dominic James? They are the new version of Allan Ray, Randy Foye and Kyle Lowry. The difference? At least the Villanova trio had decent inside players. Marquette will need some of its prayers answered before it can hope to move any higher in the Big East.
6. Pitt -- The Panthers lack of a bona fide inside presence outside of 6-7 center DeJuan Blair irks me. Blair is going to be fantastic, but I think he is a power forward trapped in a small forward's body ... and he's starting at center. Needless to say the Panthers are undersized at the 2 and at the 4, as well. A solid corps of young reserves will really help this team.
7. Villanova -- Scottie Reynolds might average 35 points per game if defenders aren't careful. He's that explosive. What a stud. The Coreys (Fisher and Stokes) bring the best characters with that name to Philadelphia since Corey Matthews. Jay Wright always has his teams competitive, and the inside players are a year older.
8. Providence -- I think the Friars will sneak into the NCAA Tournament. I love McDermott, who is a 6-7 point forward that rebounds, passes and scores. Weyinmi Efejuku is a great slashing scorer and Sharaud Curry is the most underrated point guard in the conference. If PC can get anything out of its new additions and Randall Hanke returns to his status as a legitimate big man, the Friars are a tough looking club.
9. West Virginia -- Bob Huggins has the Mountaineers playing a hybrid offense and a toughened man-to-man D. Joe Alexander should emerge as a prominent forward in the conference, and Joe Mazzulla looked primed for a breakout season when I saw him play in the Pittsburgh Summer League. These teams keep surprising us, so don't blink twice if the 'Eers climb high up the standings.
10. Notre Dame -- The Fighting Irish are always competitive, and Mike Brey has some solid big men returning to his club. Luke Harangody and Rob Kurz should provide some quality post scoring and rebounding, and nobody works harder than them. Tory Jackson is even faster in person. The guy can shake people. I like the trio of Harangody, Jackson and Kurz, but it will take some convincing to move the Fighting Irish up.
11. Cincinnati -- Mick Cronin keeps molding and shaping this program into a winner, and the Bearcats are just one more year away from competing with the big dogs in the BEast. This year, expect some growing pains. Deonta Vaughn is a dynamic scoring from the perimeter, and he will definitely cause some problems for Bearcats' opponents.
12. Seton Hall -- Bobby Gonzalez has a tough group of guys on his roster, and the rebuilding of the program is underway. Nobody works harder than Gonzalez, and his first real recruiting class looks strong. The Pirates have the potential to really push some of the better clubs in the league. Watch for Jamar Nutter, a scrappy senior who has improved every year.
13. DePaul -- Jerry Wainwright is a tireless recruiter and will need his new freshmen to help solve the glaring holes left by Sammy Mejia (graduated) and Wilson Chandler (drafted). Draelon Burns will see a big increase in his offensive duties this year, and he has a chance to finally be the centerpiece of the Blue Demons' offense.
14. St. John's -- Divine Intervention couldn't save the Red Storm this year. I've seen Pittsburgh recruit DJ Kennedy play, and he isn't a bad addition to the program. Unfortunately, he, along with everyone else on this team, is not that great. Good luck winning five conference games.
15. Rutgers -- The only thing worse than being Rutgers basketball is being a basketball at Rutgers. The Scarlet Knights will miss plenty of shots this year, hoping that JR Inman comes down with the rebound and scores the putback. Otherwise, these guys are troubled before the season even tips off.
16. South Florida -- Kentrell Gransberry will be the centerpiece of The Team That Never Should Have Left Conference USA. Still, Solomon Bozeman should be an impact guard in the Big East, and new coach Stan Heath will have these guys competing sooner than you might think.

Goin' Dancin'
I mentioned NCAA Tournament teams. I think eight will come from the Big East, solely because of the league's size and quality. Here are the eight, and their seeds are in parentheses.

Louisville (1), Georgetown (2), Syracuse (4), Connecticut (4), Marquette (5), Pitt (7), Villanova (8) and Providence (10).

Elite status
Here are my Elite 8 picks. Of course, these will be inaccurate because we won't know the pairings until March.

North Carolina, Memphis, UCLA, Louisville, Georgetown, Tennessee, Southern Illinois and Indiana.

Final Four
I like Memphis, UCLA, Louisville and Tennessee

Title Game
I'll take Tennessee vs. UCLA

Winner
UCLA. The Bruins no longer have the offensive juggernaut Florida to stand in their. Ben Howland's defense will smother anyone and everyone standing in its path, and the Bruins have one of the most dynamic floor leaders in the nation, Darren Collison, patrolling their perimeter. Kevin Love is going to be an absolute stud.