NFL Week Seven Picks

As Scooby Doo would say, "Rut roh." Meaning, I can't believe it's already Week Seven of the NFL season. I haven't unpacked my jackets yet, winter, slow down. Anyway, I had a rough week picking margins of victory, but what else is new? I'm sitting pretty in picking winners, handling a sweet 52-19 record so far. My margins of victory record, however, is a lowly 34-37. Call me crazy, but I do better picking the winners.

To the games...

JACKSONVILLE at Houston -- Nothing beats starting off the picks with an easy one. Jacksonville is more physical than two college kids on a dance floor. And that's pretty physical. Houston can't handle that kind of power and physicality. Plus, as is the case every week, I want to compare Byron Leftwich to Kenan from Kenan and Kel. I really wish he spelled it K-E-E-N-A-N. But he doesn't. What's a blogger to do? Jacksonville by seven.

Carolina at CINCINNATI -- I need to keep picking Cincinnati, because my oddsmaker, i.e. my brain, thinks the Bengals have to win soon. The Panthers are looking real tough with Steve Smith back, but I like the Stripes at home. They're due. Cincinnati by three.

NEW ENGLAND at Buffalo -- Buffalo is like that team that no one really remembers, that kind of shows up and plays well occasionally, and then other times, they are awful. You know, think Nebraska's basketball team. They'll probably offer a .500 or sub-.500 record, but they somehow perform in certain tough games. But the Pats will win, by seven.

Pittsburgh at ATLANTA -- I'm not, nor will I ever be, on the Steelers bandwagon this year. I can't handle the idea that somehow after beating THE KANSAS CITY CHIEFS, at Heinz Field, by 38 points, the Steelers are going to right the ship here in Pittsburgh. My great aunt Helen could throw two touchdown passes against that secondary. By no means am I counting the Steelers' season out, but I like the Falcons at home, by three points.

Philadelphia at TAMPA BAY -- The Eagles are on a slippery slope. They'll recover balance back home, but the Bucs look great with Bruce Gradkowski. I actually spoke to Cadillac Williams this week before the game, and he told me, "Ya'll knah how we do dahn sawt, we gon' git it pawppin'." Yeah, he never said that. But the Bucs take it by three.

Detroit at NEW YORK JETS -- How embarrassing is it to be a Bills fan? So embarrassing that losing to the Lions doesn't even bother them. Or does it? Maybe the Lions have found their groove. And maybe you've heard of Millard Fillmore. Jets by 10.

Green Bay at MIAMI -- I won't lie -- I don't like Brett Favre. He should retire now, and spare us all the media hooplah surrounding his story. In the meantime, I really need Greg Jennings to score a few touchdowns and get about 150 yards receiving. But at home, I like Joey and company. Yes, I just said that. No, I'm not currently checking into a mental hospital. Fins by four.

SAN DIEGO at Kansas City -- Even in that atmosphere, I like the Chargers. I don't quite have a grip on it yet, but there's something about the Bolts that I didn't like the last few weeks. I don't get that Super Bowl Champ feel about them. Then again, I did pick a Twins-Padres World Series. But I like the Chargers in this game. Let's say they win it by seven.

DENVER at Cleveland -- The Browns stink. The Broncos defense is ferocious. And no, I didn't just say that so I could use 'ferocious.' They will shut off the Browns offense, which is easier to turn off than a girl when you recite your favorite toilet jokes. I guess it also depends on the girl. Bad analogy? Broncos by 10.

Minnesota at SEATTLE -- I will always take the Seahawks at home. Seattle by four.

ARIZONA at Oakland -- My fantasy team normally starts the Chicago defense, but they have a bye. This weekend's starter? Arizona. I'm expecting big things. Cards by 10.

Washington at INDY -- The Colts are similar to my aforementioned opinion of the Seahawks at home. Colts by three.

New York Giants at DALLAS -- I don't know which team to expect in Dallas: the Giants who came back against Philly and dominated Atlanta, or the Giants whose secondary was torched by Seattle. I'll say the latter will show up in Dallas. 'Boys by five.

There they are. The picks of the century. Or at least for Week Seven. Make sure you do three things:

1) Watch the World Series (I'd say Tigers in six games but I don't want to jinx them. Crap, I just did.)
2) Read The Pitt News, either in print on campus or online at www.pittnews.com
3) Listen to my radio show at www.wpts.org/live or 92.1 FM if you're in the 'Burgh. Tune in Nov. 4 at noon and Nov. 11 at 8 p.m. for my illustrious broadcasts of Pitt football at South Florida (yessss!) and at Connecticut, respectively.

Be good, yinz guys.

NFL Week Six Picks

Well, I'm having a nearly flawless season picking winners and losers, shining a record of 44-14. The biggest problem with that is my 30-28 record predicting the margin of victory. But who's counting?

To the picks!

BUFFALO at Detroit -- Never bet on the Lions. I don't know if this is the game they can win to break the winless start, but it has the makings of it. Still, picking Jon Kitna and the Lions just seems too silly. Bills by three.

Carolina at BALTIMORE -- Now I'm not on, and never was on, the Ravens bandwagon. But I do think they are a tough team to beat at home against their defense. Jamal Lewis and Steve McNair finally showed their true colors on national television, and the Undefeated Team Nobody Saw Play crumbled. That said, the Panthers haven't looked great on the road yet. Ravens by three.

CINCINNATI at Tampa Bay -- I like the Bucs but the Bengals are coming off a bye week. They've had two weeks to let their 38-13 loss to the Pats sink in, and now they have a team they can crush in their crosshairs. Bruce Gradkowksi will have to wait one more week. Bengals by seven.

Houston at DALLAS -- Enough about T.O. Drew Bledsoe is very mediocre, if that's possible. The Texans aren't going to win on the road. 'Boys at home by seven.

New York Giants at ATLANTA -- This is a game that could go either way. The Giants have played like two different teams in their two wins and two losses. The Falcons have had a week to prepare for the Giants and it will be loud in Hotlanta. 'Birds by seven.

Philadelphia at NEW ORLEANS -- The Saints have the Eagles at home. The Eagles are coming off a huge emotional victory over the Cowboys. Everything points to Reggie Bush exploding this week. Saints by seven.

SEATTLE at St. Louis -- Unlike Bill Simmons, I'm not, nor will I ever be, on the Rams bandwagon. Seattle is a better team with a better coach, better defense and better quarterback. Seahawks by three.

Tennessee at WASHINGTON -- The Skins will come back home, licking their wounds after that terrible performance last week. The Titans blew a big chance to send shockwaves through the NFL. And now they will return to the lowest valley in the league from which they came. Redskins by 10.

Kansas City at PITTSBURGH -- I'm taking the Steelers at home. They need the victory and Damon Huard is the Chiefs' quarterback. Enough said. Steelers by seven.

Miami at NEW YORK JETS -- Never pick the Dolphins. Jets by seven.

SAN DIEGO at San Francisco -- The Chargers are the team to beat. And no, there isn't a bias because I'm starting Philip Rivers in fantasy. Chargers by 10.

Oakland at DENVER -- The Raiders...'Nuff said. Plus, Denver is home, riding high and playing in a rivalry game against a far less talented team. Broncos by 10.

CHICAGO at Arizona -- The Bears against Matt Leinart? Is this a joke? The Bears maul the Cards by 14.

That's it. Call home. Tell your friends. And never forget to check out www.pittsnews.com or listen to me on the radio Monday mornings at 9, streaming at www.wpts.org/live.

From the Championship Series to the NFL

The Pittsburgh Steelers are in a heap of trouble. Starting 1-3 for the first time since the 2002 season, Blitzburgh is quickly falling behind in its division. In fairness, people wrote them off last year after a late-season, three-game losing streak, only to find the Steelers crowned Super Bowl champs weeks later.

I know, I know -- the season is only five weeks old, but the Steelers offense might enter panic mode this week. Ben Roethlisberger has thrown seven interceptions without tossing one touchdown pass. In total offense, Pittsburgh ranks 25th in the entire league. Furthermore, even with 1,000-yard rusher Willie Parker, the Steelers are only 22nd in the league running the ball. And when your total defense isn't top-five material -- especially against the pass (22nd in the league) -- things are going to go poorly.

I wouldn't say the Steelers are done, but unless they string together some wins starting next week at home against Kansas City, they are on the brink of extinction. With the Ravens and Bengals poised to take over control of the division, things are now-or-never for the Steelers. The schedule doesn't favor Pittsburgh, finishing the season with three games against three tough, talented teams (at Carolina, Baltimore and at Cincinnati).

Moving on to baseball, things are heating up. We have our ALCS and NLCS matchups all ready to go -- Detroit and Oakland in the AL; St. Louis (really?) and the New York Mets in the NL. Let's visit key factors in each series.

Showing their stripes
1) The Tigers need to hit -- I don't know if their starters and bullpen can throw as well as they did against the Yankees.
2) Their starters must throw strikes and avoid big situations in which Frank Thomas can cause damage -- Thomas was a beast against Minnesota (5-10, 2 HRs, 3 runs).
3) And obviously the Tigers need to win at least one in Oakland, where the A's were 49-32 this year. But the Stripes were 49-32 on the road, and the experience winning on the road could help them in the first two games, especially with Oakland on longer rest.

Breaking the Curse of Billy Beane?
1) The A's have to be careful against the Tigers at home (see above) and if they aren't able to get on base as easily as the Minnesota series, they could find trouble.
2) How healthy is Rich Harden? If he can go in Game Three, as he's slated to do, he'll have to be solid. I think Zito is good for three starts should this series take all seven games, but the A's still need at least one good start from both Esteban Loaiza and Rich Harden, because Dan Haren will matchup with Justin Verlander.

These are the matchups (with games 5-7 projected):
Zito-Nate Robertson
Loaiza-Kenny Rogers
Haren-Verlander
Harden-Bonderman
Zito-Robertson
Loaiza-Rogers
Haren/Harden-Verlander

I think the matchups favor the Tigers, especially when we don't know how healthy Rich Harden is. So I'll take the Tigers in seven.

Meet the Mets
1) Just hit -- if the Mets hit, the pitching will only need to be adequate. And the Cards don't stack any lefties in their rotation, meanwhile the Mets feast on righties -- go figure.
2) Just get Willie into the fifth or sixth, then Willie can get his bullpen involved -- a major advantage leaning for the Mets.
3) Win with Tom Glavine on the mound, otherwise the Mets might find themselves in trouble with shaky starters John Maine, Steve Trachsel and Oliver Perez throwing games 2-4.

Surprise in the Cards?
1) Get Scott Rolen going -- the bopper only hit 1 for 11 in the NLDS against San Diego, and the pressure is only bigger now.
2) Win with Chris Carpenter -- the same philosophy as Glavine and the Mets: If the Cards can't win with Carpenter, they can't win many other ways.
3) Get either Jeff Suppan or Jeff Weaver going, they'll need another innings-eater with Carpenter to help carry the load. The bullpen is atrocious beyond closer Adam Wainwright and no way will Anthony Reyes or Jason Marquis help in Game 4.

These are the matchups with games 5-7 projected
Weaver-Glavine
Suppan-Maine
Carpenter-Trachsel
(This is where the trouble lies for St. Louis -- do they start Weaver on three days rest? Or go with Anthony Reyes, a guy who's struggled all year with his command and stamina, or Jason Marquis, a pitcher who relies on a sinkerball that doesn't sink and nothing else to rely on? But they will throw against Oliver Perez, a guy who could either be unhittable or terrible, with more odds put on him being awful.)
Weaver?-Glavine
Suppan-Maine
Carpenter-Trachsel

If the series makes it to Game Seven, I'll take the Cardinals. But I don't see it going more than fives games, with the Mets winning every game but Game 3.

So, after taking the Twins-Padres, and biting on it, I'm taking Tigers-Mets with my fingers crossed. I know the Athletics are good, but I like the Tigers mystique.

NFL Week Five Picks

Welcome back to another fine edition of Weekly Picks with yours truly. After three weeks of picking and four weeks of NFL football, I hold a 31-13 overall record when picking the winners. The downside? I'm only 20-24 picking the margin of victory.

Moving on to the picks of the week…

Buffalo at CHICAGO – I might sound crazy, but the Bills aren't completely out of this game. I wouldn't be surprised if they gave the Bears a run for their money. Think about it – the Bills are coming off a great home win and the Bears are coming off a colossal, emotional victory Monday night. Could there be a bigger chance for a letdown? Regardless, never pick against the Bears. Chitown by six.

Cleveland at CAROLINA – I thought the Browns looked almost average...until they squeaked out a victory against Oakland. Granted, it was in Oakland, in that difficult road atmosphere, but really, it's the Raiders. Carolina is coming back into form with a two-headed monster in the backfield and a recovering Steve Smith. The Panthers should win easily. I'll say by 10.

Detroit at MINNESOTA – Love the Vikes at home. Hate the Lions on the road. Heck, hate the Lions anywhere. I can't pick them in any game. I'm just waiting for people to hunt down Matt Millen (I'm surprised they haven't already) and put his head on a stick. Vikings by seven.

Miami at NEW ENGLAND – I have Chris Chambers on my fantasy team. Yeah, a Pro Bowl receiver with boat loads of talent, not to mention 4,000-plus yards receiving and 41 touchdowns in his career with Miami. Apparently picking him in fantasy is a "bandwagon" pick because some experts at assorted sports media outlets said Miami would be good this year. I picked him because he is a solid playmaker and has had several good years. His main problem? His quarterback is terrible – yeah, Good Doctor picked Culpepper up, in case you were wondering. Nonetheless, the Pats look like they are finally ready to roll, and Miami couldn't be a better team for the Pats to play heading into their bye week. Pats by seven.

ST. LOUIS at Green Bay – Did you see that Monday Night Football game? I assume you did. That's why I'm picking the Rams to win at Lambeau. St. Louis by three.

Tampa Bay at NEW ORLEANS – The Saints should win this game in Bruce Gradkowski's first start in the spotlight for the Bucs. I'm intrigued to see how he does. Hopefully Reggie Bush and Cadillac Williams get it together this week (again, the whole fantasy thing) but I wouldn’t hold my breath. N'ahlins by 10.

Tennessee at INDIANAPOLIS – I think any team in the AFC with a shot at the playoffs would kill for a chance to play the Titans and Texans twice each. Indy is going to kill, and I mean absolutely murder, the Titans. I'll take the Colts by 14.

Washington at NEW YORK GIANTS – Look for the Giants to get things back in order – at least for now – when they play this big rivalry game. The Redskins offense looked downright explosive last week against a great defense (Jacksonville), so keep an eye on Mark Brunell and Clinton Portis, they will be the keys for Washington. But I like home teams in the NFC East. Giants by three.

Kansas City at ARIZONA – I'm gonna go out on a limb and say the Chiefs big win over the 49ers last week isn't exactly the kind of team the Chiefs really are. I like the Cards at home, even if they don't have an offensive line or much of a defense. I really have no reason to pick Arizona, so let's just get that out on the table. Cards by three.

New York Jets at JACKSONVILLE – Did you hear that? That was the sound of Eric Fatgini's triple cheeseburger sub from Enzo's Pizzeria on Long Island hitting its wrapping. The real question is – was it while Fatgini was watching Jacksonville's defense on tape or his Jets’ defense on tape? The Jags defense is too physical for the Jets' O. And the Jags offensive line is too physical for the Jets' D-line, so the Jets will have trouble getting any pressure on Kenan Thompson – you know, the kid from Kenan and Kel. Jags by seven.

Oakland at SAN FRANCISCO – And no, there isn't a worse game all season than this one. Ugh, 49ers by seven.

Dallas at PHILADELPHIA – Sticking with my "NFC East teams don't lose division games at home" theory, even though home teams in the NFC East are 1-1 this year against division foes. I'll take Philly. This is a huge emotional game for the Iggles. Philly by seven.

Pittsburgh at SAN DIEGO – Give me one good reason why the Steelers can even come close in this game? The Chargers will be at home, looking for blood after blowing a win against Baltimore and the Steelers couldn't be more vulnerable. This might be the biggest game of the season for Pittsburgh. I'm intrigued to see how they respond. They came through whenever they needed to last year, can they do it this year? I say no. Chargers by seven.

Baltimore at DENVER – I expect the NFL's undefeated teams to dwindle down to Chicago and Indy after this Monday Night Football contest. The Broncos are so tough at home. Plus they have a stingy defense that should stifle the poor Ravens offense. On the other side, the Ravens' D is probably the best in the league. But the Broncos' O is much more functional than the Ravens' O. Broncos by three in a very, very low-scoring affair.

There you have it. Again, check out www.pittnews.com for great, up-to-date sports coverage in and around the University of Pittsburgh. Also, tune in to the Water Cooler Conversation every Monday morning at www.wpts.org/live or live on your radio dial at 92.1 FM. And if you have time, go to www.thepalestra.com and check some of my web-television reporting from Pitt. Enjoy the weekend, folks.

NFL Quarterly Update

Football season is one quarter completed -- at least in the NFL. So I figured I toss my playoff predictions your way after watching significant football in the first four weeks, getting a grasp on potential contenders, sleepers and duds.

But before I get into my projections, let's talk about something that happened Saturday night. Nine of my friendly lady friends hosted a "Pitt Panther Pride Party," at which Panther fans showed up with their gear on in support of Pitt football.

The party filled their house with people. I have to admit, I didn't recognize many of them, and by midnight or so, I was too drunk to really care. But sometime after midnight, one of the girls came downstairs to the door, where I had taken up shop collecting dough for kids coming in.

She announced something I'd never forget: someone had defecated in their bathtub. Yes, defecated. Pooped. Launched a dookie rocket. Now obviously, it was a guy. Girls don't poop -- especially in other girls' bathtubs. So we assume it was one of the random dudes there.

Now hear me -- any person on the Pitt campus known to be harboring, aiding or abetting a member of al-Crappa will be punished. Severely. The girls at McKee and their large circle of friends will not sleep under Defecata bin Crappen is found.

Anyway, let's talk about the NFL. I will offer this disclaimer -- my picks will clearly be only half right. I'm going to catch a lot of heat for what I say about certain teams in certain cities where yours truly currently resides.

AFC's Top Two:
Indianapolis 14-2; The Colts are the best regular season team in the NFL. But as long as Manning is quarterback, I have a hard time saying they'll make any runs in the playoffs. Yet they are so hard to pick against in the regular season.
San Diego 12-4; Despite Sunday's loss to the Ravens in Baltimore, I still like the Chargers D and LaDanian Tomlinson. This offense will be quality all season and its going to be real tough to win in San Diego.

AFC's Other Two Division Winners:
New England 11-5; The Patriots will play more like the team we saw in Cincinnati than the team we saw in the first few games. Brady finally has a go-to receiver picked out and the two-headed monster of Corey Dillon and Laurence Maroney will wear out opponents week in and week out.
Cincinnati 11-5; Yeah, yeah. You're wondering where I've got the Ravens if they aren't winning the AFC North. Call me crazy, but I still have faith that the Bengals are the team to beat in the division. I don't think they will be the Super Bowl contenders that everyone said they'd be (including me) before the season unless Carson Palmer returns fully to his old self and the Bengals D actually stops the run.

AFC Wild Card:
Baltimore Ravens 10-6; The Ravens still have a brutal schedule in front of them. And I can't quite point my finger on it, but there's just something about Steve McNair that makes me throw up in mouth -- maybe the fact that he's more beat up than a West Virginia girl (low blow?).
Jacksonville Jaguars 10-6; The Jags defense is physical. They've hit some tough games at Indy and Washington the past two weeks, but I like the schedule down the stretch -- it's easier than a Penn State girl. They will defend their way to a lot of victory.

Yeah, sorry bud, No Dice:
Pittsburgh 9-7; In their division with their schedule, nine wins might be stretching it. I can't give Ben Roethlisberger the benefit of the doubt because he just doesn't look comfortable. The real test will be in San Diego Sunday. Roethlisberger will have had two weeks of rest and practice to really get things in order, and practicing against a great defense like Pittsburgh's helps.
New York Jets 8-8; Give the Jets one season under Eric Mangini before we expect them to challenge for the AFC East title. In the meantime, they'll rustle some feathers (see: Indianapolis 31, New York Jets 28) and make a run at the wild card spots.
Denver Broncos 9-7; The defense looks really good. They have such a difficult schedule that I have a hard time giving them a playoff spot. I don't think they can handle the Chargers or even the Chiefs on the road. And I don't like the offense.

The NFC's Top Two:
Chicago 13-3; I just looked through their schedule and couldn't find a game that they can't win. The defense is absolutely incredible. The offense is suddenly capable with a healthy Rex Grossman. Add Thomas Jones, a serviceable back with some experience, and the Bears are the best team in the NFL.
Seattle Seahawks 12-4; I'm not falling off the bandwagon yet. The loss against the Bears was alarming, but not bad enough to drop them into the next category. They are still the team everyone is gunning for in the NFC. And when Shaun Alexander comes back, they will be ready to make a run.

NFC's Other Division Winners:
Atlanta 11-5; The Falcons have the defense and the running attack to wear down opponents. This division is the most competitive around, with Carolina and New Orleans challenging for the top spot. But I have trouble seeing Hotlanta go anywhere once the playoffs begin.
Philadelphia 11-5; The Eagles are good. Donovan McNabb looks really fantastic so far. As long as he stays healthy and keeps connecting with Donte' "Why the Apostrophe?" Stallworth, they will be dangerous downfield. The defense beats people up. The only problem is the difficulty of the division will tax Philly into a few losses.

NFC Wild Card:
Carolina 10-6; I can't pick against them after the last two games. They have two running backs that offer dangerous breakout threats and a defense that pressures any quarterback. I'm not on the Super Bowl Bandwagon like everyone else, but they are a good team.
Dallas 10-6; The Eagles main contention for the NFC East. The only problem, as was the problem for the Pats and Bills in years past, is Drew Bledsoe. I don't like him as a player, or should I say a statue?

Well this is awkward, but you guys didn't make it, sooo I guess we'll see you later;
New Orleans 9-7; The Saints will need one more season, I think, to crash the playoffs. They are the feel-good story in the NFL, but I don't trust their defense.
Washington Redskins 9-7; Mark Brunell always looks better when Clinton Portis is running, but still, the 'Skins will need a lot to take on Dallas and Philly.
Minnesota Vikings 8-8; I like the Vikes, but they don't possess the offense to get things done against a really tough schedule.
St. Louis 8-8; Marc Bulger -- need I say more?

AFC Championship Game:
San Diego over Indianapolis

NFC Championship Game:
Chicago over Seattle

Chicago over San Diego in Super Bowl XLI. There you have it. Check back with me if you've found Defecata bin Crappen.