Saturday, July 23, 2005

Mid-Season MLB Report Card: NL East

First of all, I'd like to recognize Lance Armstrong as one of the greatest athletes of all time after his latest domination of the Tour De France. Nonetheless, this is a baseball post, so let's talk baseball. The NL East features five good teams all within 5 1/2 games of each other as of July 23. The Braves, surging of late, seem to be capable leaders of the division with their team now recovering nicely from the flurry of injuries that knocked them down to .500. The Washington Nationals, Major League Baseball's story of the year so far, are currently tied with the Braves. They possess a staff of good pitchers but can only hope that Livan Hernandez's problems minimize. The Phillies continue to show that they are a good team disguised as a mediocre ballclub. With their second surge this season, they find themselves only 4 games back in the division. The Mets have produced an extremely disappointing season after their activities in the 2004-2005 off-season. The Marlins, located at the center of every trade rumor in the entire league, find themselves at .500 despite a great pitching staff. This division will feature prominently one of the best races around the league. I think it will come down to the final weekend.

Atlanta Braves: Andruw Jones has single-handedly carried the Braves' offense this year. He continues to show an amazing ability to go big when he needs to. With a rotation that carries names like Smoltz, Hudson, Hampton, Thomson, Ramirez, and even Jorge Sosa, the Braves, as usual, remain a tough team to hit against. Leo Mazzone has maintained his reputation as baseball's finest pitching coach. As long as their pitching staff can stay healthy, the Braves will get good starts pretty much every night, and contend for the division for the rest of the season.

Hitting-wise, the Braves cannot fully depend on Andruw Jones all year. Brian Jordan needs to start swinging more efficiently (when he's healthy) and Rafael Furcal needs to get on base more often. The Braves do not strikeout a whole lot, and that means that they either put bad pitches into play, or see a lot of pitches but still get out a lot. I would probably say it's the latter, and we can only expect the Braves hitting to improve as the season moves on. I expect this team to win the division, again, thanks to the overwhelming trio of underperforming teams that will kill themselves as the season progresses.
Final Season Record: 91-71; 1st place in the NL East

Washington Nationals: The Montreal Expos disguised as a different team have found a new home in Washington, D.C. The Nationals have produced the feel-good story of the year, as Roger Ebert would say, and they continue to win. Despite the middle infield's lack of hitting, (thank you Cristian Guzman and your .190 batting average paired with a .231 OBP) the Nats find themselves in the thick of an NL East showdown in the later days of July. Jose Guillen and Brad Wilkerson carry this team's offense, and could use Nick Johnson, who can't seem to stay healthy ever, to provide a third bat. Otherwise, Jose Vidro has produced a disappointing season, and the Nationals are lucky to have good pitching to cancel out the bad hitting.

The whole Livan Hernandez situation worries me, and I think it could be problematic if the Nats want to contend for the division. John Patterson has casually become one of the better pitchers in the NL, and Esteban Loaiza, much to my surprise, has put together a good season as well. I really like Chad Cordero, and picking up Mike Stanton should help the Nats' young bullpen. I think this team will miraculously manage to stay in the hunt for the title, and definitely challenge for the Wild Card. I guess name changes really do make a difference; it's gotta be the jerseys.
Final Season Record: 88-74; 3rd place in the NL East

Philadelphia Phillies: Despite the fact that Vicente Padilla is awful, the Phils have a good rotation. Brett Myers continues to produce quality starts, Cory Lidle has been solid, and Wolf and Lieber are putting together seasons we have come to expect from them. The lineup holds four or five good hitters. Bobby Abreu, after his amazing Home Run Derby performance, can only hope to improve upon another solid year in the batter's box. I liked moving Polanco to give Chase Utley more time, and it has paid off. Jimmy Rollins is hitting .277 but only holds a .319 OBP. Thank god Pat Burrell has finally come around, the sight of another slew of batteries flying into leftfield would be unbearable. And how about Kenny Lofton, this guy always seems to be producing somewhere new each year, but producing nonetheless.

The pitching staff, as aforementioned, has been decent thus far. I like Brett Myers as one of the better young starters in the league, and Lidle, Wolf, and Lieber also show themselves to be solid. If Billy Wagner stays, which seems more probable now that the Phils are back in the playoff hunt, the Phillies will have a strong ace in the hole out of the bullpen. I like Aaron Fultz and Ryan Madson filling the innings in between the starter and Wagner, and I think they will keep the Phils in contention for a lot of late inning, close games. I like the Phillies lineup and pitching, and I think they are legitimate contenders for the division.
Final Season Record: 89-73; 2nd place in the NL East

New York Mets: Carlos Beltran may be hitting .265, he may be carrying a .316 OBP, and he may be the biggest waste of money in Major League history. I have to say, the hype over this guy was really only applicable to the 2004 playoffs. Otherwise, he has yet to really do much. Thanks to Cliff Floyd and David Wright, however, the Mets have more wins than losses. I still can't believe that Mike Piazza made the All-Star Game, with his .259 average and a .319 OBP. It's safe to say that Jose Reyes, Kaz Matsui, Doug Mientkiewicz, and Mike Cameron have all disappointed the Mets' faithful this year. I suspect that there will be major changes again this upcoming off-season.

Throwing the baseball usually is one of the Mets' main problems at this time every year. This year, however, is different. Pedro Martinez has put together amazing numbers (0.84 WHIP, 144 K's in 139 IP) and Kris Benson has been good as well. Package those two with Victor Zambrano's surprisingly solid season so far, and the Mets have a good trio of starters. Tom Glavine just isn't what he was and Kazuhisa Ishii can't seem to find the strike zone very often. Roberto Hernandez has pitched extremely well, not only in my 2005 MVP Baseball season on GameCube, but also in real life. Braden Looper is better than people think, and the addition of Danny Graves should help the bullpen. I think a lot of people are wondering, "What's wrong with the Mets?" And I am, too. What's wrong with the Mets?
Final Season Record: 83-79; 4th place in the NL East

Florida Marlins: AJ Burnett: an Oriole? A Red Sock? A White Sock? A Yankee? Does anyone notice that the Marlins are .500? Dontrelle Willis might be the best pitcher under 30 in the pros, but everyone's talking about Burnett and Lowell. With Brian Moehler putting together a solid season, and Josh Beckett doing his thing (when he's healthy that is), the Marlins have three good pitchers. But AJ Burnett has put together a great season (a WHIP of just 1.27 and 120 K's in 124 2/3 innings), and has fueled all Marlin talk to hover around him. Todd Jones has been wonderful in relief, but Guillermo Mota and Jim Mecir have failed to finish off games effectively. The starters are very good, but they need a fifth starter, and someone to immediately replace Burnett when he moves, or else the Marlins will finish the year looking awfully bad.

Luis Castillo, Carlos Delgado, Miguel Cabrera, Paul Lo Duca, and Juan Encarnacion are all hitting the ball and getting on base at frenzied paces. But Juan Pierre and Mike Lowell are not. I thought Paul Lo Duca should have caught for the NL All-Stars, as he has put together another good season behind the plate. Miguel Cabrera has to be one of the scariest 22-year-old hitters in the history of baseball at this point, and Carlos Delgado continues to just be ferocious. Poor Mike Lowell is being shopped around like a used part at an auto show, with his blistering .280 OBP and 5 home runs. Remember that year Mike Lowell had a .365 OBP and 27 home runs? Oh, you mean last year? What has happened to Mr. Lowell is beyond me, but I can say this: Pitchers are throwing high fastballs and getting him out, so maybe we can blame good scouting for his demise this season. Nonetheless, I am surprised that the Marlins aren't better off in the win column at this point, and it seems like they aren't getting better, but, but, they are still very capable of getting hot and catching the teams at the top of the division.
Final Season Record: 76-86; last place in the NL East

The Braves have the pitching staff, the coaching staff, and Andruw Jones' staff, all things that help any team win a division. I think the Braves will win the division in a close race that ends after the 162nd game. The Nationals and the Phillies are legitimate threats to take the division, and I think the Mets and Marlins are as well if they get hot. It will be interesting to see if the Nationals melt down after their polished play for the first four months of the season, and we'll enjoy seeing how the Phillies finish out another antagonizing season. I like the Braves because they don't have as many question marks as the rest of the division, so as long as they are healthy and a few bats wake up, they will be the winners of this good, but not great, division.

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