Sunday, June 04, 2006

The NBA: It's Fantastic!

Does anyone remember when Shaq was on "Quite Frankly"? Did anyone ever think I would start an entry with a reference to "Quite Frankly"?

I hope not. I know I didn't. Terrible show. Anyway, Shaq dissed Erick Dampier, saying something along the lines of Dampier playing in the WNBA. It was funny. But also ironic, because apparently this will be the all-telling, end-all-be-all WNBA vs. NBA World Championship: The Final Battle.

Now that the sports media has finally been forced to end their love affair with Detroit, we can start talking about the NBA Playoffs. Let's face it: If the Heat win the Finals, Dwayne Wade wins the MVP; if the Mavs win, Dirk Nowitzki gets it. Simple as that.

I like the matchup problems both teams will have to deal with in the Finals: Dirk vs. Antoine Walker, Udonis Haslem and James Posey. Shaq vs. Dampier and Desagna Diop. Wade vs. Jason Terry, Josh Howard and Jerry Stackhouse. Who will guard the agile small forwards Howard and Stackhouse if Walker is in?

Look, Dwayne Wade isn't going to shoot 62% against the Mavs. He will take the same amount of shots, maybe even more per game, but still score around 27 points a game. There's nothing wrong with that, but he will be taking shots away from his supporting cast. And if Walker, Posey, Payton and Williams aren't hitting from outside, the lane will close up pretty quickly on Wade, especially with Shaq and Haslem camping out on the blocks. But then again, Wade has just made the impossible possible during these playoffs.

The key to this series is shutting down the opponent's supporting cast. Whether it's Dallas cutting off Williams, Walker, Haslem, Payton and Posey, or Miami shutting down Harris, Howard and Stackhouse; either way, whoever does it, wins.

I think Miami wins the series in seven games. They will cut off the inside game, forcing Dirk to shoot more jumpers while preventing Howard and company from getting in the lane. I don't think Dallas can create in the paint against a solid inside team like Miami -- a team with more than one interior defender, unlike the Spurs or the Suns.

But don't get me wrong, Dallas will make this a great Finals. They switched tempos between Memphis and San Antonio, and then again between San Antonio and Phoenix. They can play any style of ball.

So can the Heat. They beat the Bulls mixing up power with precision, the Nets with a slower paced game and the Pistons with a smart game. They will probably try to maximize possessions against a great offensive team like Dallas. They can slow it down when they want.

Now remember, I picked Seattle in the Super Bowl, Houston in the World Series last year and "Grounded for Life" to be the next great American sitcom, so don't take this for some accurate predictor of winners. I just like Miami in seven.

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