Why this man could go, and why he might not

When Arizona coach Lute Olson retired, anyone who knows me had to know what I was thinking: Pitt coach Jamie Dixon will make a beeline (or should I say Beilein?) for the Arizona job. I've always held the idea that once the 74-year-old Olson stepped aside, that Dixon would be the prime candidate for the job.

No one ever really seemed to disagree. In fact, some inside the Pitt circle merely nodded along with the notion, probably assuming that that situation wouldn't arise for some time.

But now it has.

For Pitt, maybe it's a good thing this all happened right before the season. There's no way any coach would leave at the outset of a season unless he was incredibly unhappy. As for after the 2008-2009 season, that's another story.

I will not put words into Dixon's mouth. He has never (publicly) stated any interest in any other jobs or any other area. I can't stress this enough: This is pure speculation.

(1) Dixon is a West Coast guy. He grew up in California.

(2) Dixon's resume has Los Angeles Junior College, UC-Santa Barbara, Hawaii and Northern Arizona on it. He has never had the opportunity to be a head coach out west.

(3) There's more of a basketball culture at Arizona. There, I said it. Olson created a national powerhouse, which, despite recent stumblings in the past few seasons, has reached 24 consecutive NCAA tournaments. Arizona also has four Final Four appearances, two title game appearances and one national title. How many does Pitt have?

(4) It's a recruiting step up. At Pitt, Dixon has to recruit hard-nosed players who play scrappy defense and rebound with elbows out. It has been relatively successful. But Arizona has the clout to recruit with the big boys; Pitt doesn't quite yet. Look at what Dixon's best friend, Ben Howland, has done at UCLA. Howland recruited the same kind of players Dixon recruits now when Howland was still at Pitt. Now that he is at UCLA, Howland can recruit McDonald's All-Americans who also happen to fit his style of play. Pitt could never land Kevin Love, Darren Collison or Russell Westbrook, but UCLA did, and those guys all fit into Howland's rough-and-tumble style of hoops that Dixon emulates.

(5) Dixon's family is still young. It's not as easy to move a family when your kids are middle schoolers or older.

Reasons (or excuses from fans in denial) about Dixon wouldn't leave Pitt
(1) He just signed a contract extension. And? Coaches sign extensions every other week. Extensions are a show for recruits--they simply mean that the coach is expected to be around for the four years of said recruit's time at the school. Plus, as CBS Sports's Gary Parrish puts it when discussing Oregon coach Ernie Kent's extension, "don't pay attention to his extension ... in the grand scheme of things, it means nothing." Also, keep this in mind: As noted in Parrish's story, Oregon's AD is good friends with the other top candidate for the Arizona job, Gonzaga coach Mark Few. If Kent is on the hot seat and is fired at the end of the season, Few is the instant favorite there, leaving Dixon as the sole frontrunner for the Arizona job.

(2) He has established himself in Pittsburgh. Now this argument I can buy a little bit more than the first one, which seems to be the fall-back response anytime this entire subject is brought up. Dixon took over Howland in 2004, and hasn't looked back. He hasn't really looked forward, either, as his teams consistently fail to surpass the Sweet 16, never really have a solid wing scorer and regularly over-exert themselves in the Big East tournament. Still, with one of the better recruiting classes in the country set for the 09-10 season, Dixon sticking around might mean the turning of the page on this program. If Pitt starts getting better recruits like this upcoming class shows it might, this program could finally (and legitimately) join the nation's top programs.

(3) From all that I've gathered, Dixon seems to have a good relationship with Steve Pederson and Mark Nordenberg. There's no reason to believe otherwise. If you get along with the school's brass, and they are willing to do whatever it takes to keep you happy, why screw up a good thing?

(4) He doesn't like playing Ben Howland. Give me a break. I think the basis for why they don't like playing each other is because Dixon still coaches at Pitt. Howland doesn't want to play his old school, where so many people are still friendly with him, especially Dixon. Arizona? Not the same strings. Twice a year? Heck, why not? Make it three times a year -- with the third being in the Pac-10 title game, and you've got yourselves a rivalry.

What will happen down the road ...
If I knew, I'd tell you. Again, this is entirely speculation, but I think Dixon at least listens to a serious offer from Arizona. This isn't Cal. This is one of the nation's top 10 programs that is far closer to Dixon's parents, who live in LA, and his sister, Julie, who is an LA-based lawyer. His best friend will be a lot closer, and his recruiting will be a lot easier. Any team that he puts together at Arizona will instantly be a Final Four contender. Including his current team at Pitt, there only appears to be a chance for Final Fours somewhere down the line, not right away.

I like Dixon. I think he's a good guy. But don't let that get in the way of logical basketball thinking. If you are not a Pittsburgher and/or a Pitt student, can you honestly say Dixon wouldn't give this opening a serious look? There are a few programs in college hoops that warrant this kind of serious look:

UCLA, Indiana (although not quite this year), Kentucky, Duke, UNC, Kansas, Arizona, Connecticut, Syracuse and maybe even Georgetown

Maybe Pitt will slowly latch onto this list, but it'll take some more time. After all, Pitt is a relatively new program on the national scene. Arizona is established. If Dixon, who turns 43 in a few weeks, can't wait so long, maybe it's time to bolt.