Homecourt Disadvantage

Notre Dame used to be a Final Four contender and was supposedly unbeatable at home. The Irish were in (almost -- look at No. 20) everybody's conversation of the top teams in the country. When they beat Texas, they were all the rage. Sure, they had a few bumps in the road, losing to then-No. 1 North Carolina and hot-starting Ohio State, but who doesn't when you play relatively tough nonconference schedule?

Then, conference play started.

Suddenly, Notre Dame, a team that was ranked as high as seventh in the nation, has fallen to 12-7 and 3-5 in the Big East. A four-game losing streak will do that to your team. The Irish had to run quite the gauntlet: five ranked teams in 19 days.

at Louisville: L, 87-73 in OT
at Syracuse: L, 93-74
Connecticut: L, 69-61
Marquette: L, 71-64
at Pitt: on Saturday

It's OK to lose to good teams. But Notre Dame really needed a win or two in this stretch. I've been saying for a while that the Irish have been overrated all year, but this is worse than I expected.

Last night, Marquette dutifully took apart Notre Dame's defense and hustled out a 71-64 win at the Joyce Center in South Bend. The Golden Eagles have the look of Villanova circa 2005-06, when the Wildcats ran with four guards for most of the game. Marquette go-to guys down the stretch were Maurice Acker, Dominic James, Jerel McNeal, Wesley Matthews and Lazar Hayward. That's 5-8, 5-10, 6-3, 6-5 and 6-6.

Not very big.

But, with McNeal leading the way, Marquette worked its way inside. There were a lot of tough, earn-that-wage baskets on putbacks or just strong moves to the basket. There was a lot of slashing. And what Marquette did best was slash and kick. Notre Dame's help defense would collapse around [insert ridiculously athletic Marquette guard here] and then that guard would toss it back out to a corner or wing, where another guard was open for a J.

It was simple, but effective.

On the other end, Notre Dame couldn't quite figure out a way to get its sharpshooter, Kyle McAlarney, the ball. James and others smothered McAlarney, who seemed frustrated that he couldn't get open. So, Notre Dame's offense turned stagnant, playing the "Get the Ball to Gody" strategy just a tad too much.

Don't get me wrong, Harangody was great. He had 29 points and 17 rebounds. But his team shot 36 percent. And when Notre Dame isn't shooting well, it's in deep, deep trouble.

Teams have clearly exposed that. And with Notre Dame's defensive efficiency nothing short of embarrassing, the Irish really don't have anywhere else to go. They have two options: Play better defense, or figure out how to get better offensive possessions. Whatever they pick, it has to be applied immediately, or we could be looking at the Big East's biggest victim of the season.

Elsewhere
-- BracketScience expert Pete Tiernan discovered that the Big Ten has the most successful NCAA Tournament coaches. Followed closely by Big East coaches:

The 11 coaches in the Big Ten have been the biggest overachievers of any set of Big Six conference coaches. Based on the seeding positions of their 62 tourney appearances, the Big Ten coaches should’ve won 83.3 games. They actually won 105 games, which works out to a hefty +.349 PASE—more than a third of a game per dance. Just as importantly, the Big Ten coaches have beaten seed expectations in 35 of their 62 tourney appearances, for a seed overachievement rate (SOAR) of 56.5 percent.

Compare the 11 Big Ten coaches to the 16 Big East coaches, the next best overperforming group. Their +.167 PASE constitutes about a sixth-of-a-game per tourney overachievement—nothing to sneeze at, but nowhere near the solid performance of the Big Ten. What’s more, Big East coaches have overachieved in only 43 of their 98 appearances, for a more unreliable SOAR of 43.9 percent. Granted, Big East coaches have reached the Final Four more than Big Ten coaches (12 to eight) and won more championships (four to two). But in terms of their ability to defy seed expectations, the Big Ten is solidly ahead of the Big East.

-- The worst string of six words in the history of mankind: Next, an hour of George Lopez!

-- Coming later today, my newest Top 10 Favorites. This time, it's awesome sitcoms.

Best Unranked Teams

These teams aren't ranked, but have a shot to sneak in the back end of the AP Top 25 after No. 24 Marquette and No. 23 Memphis both lost tough games against good opponents.

Memphis will be back in eventually, but the Tigers need to take better, smarter shots, and hope that Tyreke Evans improves as a decision-maker.

Marquette has the talent to win a lot of games at home, but it's starting to look like this batch of Golden Eagles -- ya know, Jerel McNeal, Wesley Matthews, Maurice Acker, Lazar Heyward and the most overrated player in the history of college basketball, Dominic James -- can't be counted on to win road games.

So, without any more posturing ...

1. Michigan -- The Wolverines are the easy choice because they are No. 26 in the AP rankings. But John Beilein (above) has his kids winning games they should and competing in the tough ones. If anyone is surprised by Beilein's getting results, you are crazy. Kentucky has to be kicking itself right now.

2. Miami -- The 'Canes get a chance to totally redeem themselves with an early conference donnybrook with No. 25 Clemson, which has zoomed to a 10-0 record. It's not like two losses against No. 2 UConn and No. 17 Ohio State are all that bad anyway ...

3. BYU -- The Cougars are 10-0 and have a marquee matchup at No. 20 Arizona State on Saturday and a home game against No. 10 Wake Forest on Jan. 3. Those two games will test BYU, and prepare it for the Tournament, where you should expect to see the Cougars.

4. Saint Mary's -- I don't see how one loss against a good UTEP team on a neutral floor has knocked the Gaels this far down the rankings, but the fightin' Patty Millses will be back. Trust me. We mentioned Saint Mary's earlier today because it has a big matchup with Oregon tonight. A game at Southern Illinois follows on Saturday, but after that, Saint Mary's will only have two more chances to beat any big-name teams -- and both of those changes are against No. 8 Gonzaga.

5. Minnesota -- I'm not sold on Tubby Smith's Golden Gophers yet, and neither are the AP voters, who gave the 'Sota two votes in last week's poll. But Minnesota is 9-0, and three of its next five games are against currently ranked teams -- No. 9 Louisville (in Arizona) and home against No. 17 Ohio State and No. 19 Michigan State. With the two calkwalks in between the big games, I think Minnesota will have a tough time doing better than 2-3.

6. Temple -- Riding the high of one upset isn't enough. And the 5-3 record isn't that great, either -- although losses to tougher-than-expected Buffalo, great shut-you-down D and Miami (Ohio) and Clemson aren't bad. But the Owls play at Kansas on Saturday and against Villanova Dec. 29.

Don't Get Ahead Yourself, SEC

OK, No. 16 Tennessee beat No. 24 Marquette -- in Tennessee -- and Vanderbilt crunched South Florida. Big deal. Why don't you pick on someone your own size?

So the SEC's best team beat the Big East's eighth-best club. And a 4 seed in last year's Tournament beat the worst team in Big East history. Congratulations.

And on Thursday, we get Ole Miss at Louisville and Mississippi State at Cincinnati. Wow. Thrilling showdowns in the Big East/SEC Challenge.

Why can't we have UConn-Tennessee, Pitt-Florida, Louisville-LSU and Notre Dame-Kentucky? It's not a challenge if we don't get to see the top teams play. Big Ten/ACC brought us Duke vs. Purdue and UNC vs. Michigan State.

And second of all, why can't it be the Big East/[Insert halfway decent conference here] Challenge? Maybe the A-10 would be a better opponent ...

Nonetheless, there are still some good hoops games tonight:

-- Texas Tech goes to UTEP for an in-state showdown. The Red Raiders are 7-2 with Pat Knight at the helm, and can score in bunches. UTEP is working hard to be a major challenger to Memphis's dominance of Conference USA. Beating a decent Texas Tech team will help UTEP's resume in March, too.

-- Siena at No. 3 Pitt would be a bigger game if Siena had held up its end of the bargain. You know, the whole "being good" thing. Remember when I mentioned Vanderbilt as a 4 seed in last year's Tournament? Well, Siena beat Vandy by 21 in the first round. And the Saints returned all five starters from that lineup. But now they're 5-3 and shooting 29 percent from 3 as a team. Not quite the same. This one's on ESPN 2 at 9:30.

-- Saint Mary's at Oregon should provide some quality entertainment. The Gaels are quietly one of the best teams on the West Coast and Oregon is desperately trying to find its stride.

The Beast Rears Its Ugly Head

The Big East is responsible for eight teams in both the AP and Coaches polls today. Only one other Big East team received any votes -- West Virginia got one AP vote.

So, how hard will it be for the teams that line up behind the Big 8?

Well, last year, the first year the conference went to 18-game schedule, 9-9 was the worst record that a Tournament team had in the Big East. This year, 8-10 might be acceptable, given the challenging nature of conference play.

This year, the five teams destined for Nos. 9 through 13 in the Big East are all doing reasonably well:

-- Seton Hall is 8-1, with wins against USC and Virginia Tech. Those should hold a lot of weight if the Pirates don't lose any bad games before conference play, which would leave them at 11-1 before Big East games start. SHU should finish at least 7-11 in conference, so stealing one or two games against the top 8 would go a long way. Eighteen wins might not be good enough unless SHU gets a good win against a top-15 team.

-- St. John's is also 8-1, albeit against a cupcake schedule. But still, hosting Miami (FL) and Duke at MSG gives the Red Storm two more opportunities to snag a marquee nonconference win. I just don't see St. John's getting more than seven conference wins, and without the marquee wins like Seton Hall, that's not good enough.

-- West Virginia is 7-2, with losses to Davidson (in New York) and Kentucky. Good wins came at Ole Miss and in Las Vegas against Iowa. Games against Miami (OH) and Ohio State (on the road) give the 'Eers a chance to get two more good nonconference wins. My initial count says WVU goes just 6-12 in the Big East, but knowing its track record at home, I'm willing to adjust to 8-10 or even 9-9. If WVU does that, and wins the rest of its nonconference sked aside from the one at Ohio State, it will finish 19-12. That's good enough, I'd say.

-- Cincinnati is 6-2, with losses against Florida State in Las Vegas and at home against No. 7 Xavier. Two nice wins against UNLV and UAB will help Mick Cronin's squad if its on the bubble in March. A matchup with Mississippi State this week and Memphis in two weeks gives the Bearcats two chances to grab another quality win. I only see Cincy getting 7 wins, which is too few, but a stolen win to get to 8 conference wins, plus a 10-3 nonconference record means 18 wins is possible.

-- Providence was the chic pick to steal one of the top 8 spots in the Big East this year, but the Friars struggled immediately, losing their first game to Northeastern ... at home. Now, PC is quietly 6-3, with a good win against Rhode Island. PC still plays at Boston College, but other than that, there really aren't any other spots for good nonconference wins. This enigmatic bunch looks primed for about a 6-12 or 7-11 finish in the Big East. Steal a win or two, and the Friars could have 17 or 18 wins to their ledger, which still might not be enough.

So, what do these teams do?
Well, that's easy to answer: win. Beating a ranked team or two on your home floor helps. Beating one on the road helps even more. Making sure you win games you should win and beating teams in similar situations as you (these five teams play each other plenty of times) can help overcome the ridiculously tough conference slate.

If I had to pick right now, I'd say Seton Hall and West Virginia are the two teams best positioned to sneak into the Tournament. Marquette and Villanova have some vulnerabilities that leave me thinking those two could struggle, potentially leaving space for one of these next-tier teams to sneak into the Big East's top 8. Keep an eye on Syracuse, too. It'll be interesting to see how the Orange deal with Eric Devendorf's almost certain season-long suspension.

Do any of these teams have the talent to match up with the Big 8? Out of this bunch, I'd say WVU and Providence do; the rest don't. But WVU has had injury issues, and Providence goes cold, can't play defense and is about as predictable as an M. Night Shyamalan movie.

Rainy Saturday Quick Hits

That man up top -- the Godfather of Basketball, Rick Pitino -- is not walking through that door in Lexington. (He's walking through another door a few hours away, actually, coaching a team that', dare I say, good.) And you have to wonder if anyone in Kentucky basketball world is wishing Rick was ambling into Rupp Arena, because the Wildcats got off to another terrible start, this time losing to VMI, 111-103.

Not even kidding. VMI.

-- Does this really surprise you? Have you seen Nick Calathes? Plus, he plays for Florida, so it figures.

-- UNC topped Penn, 86-71, today. I know you were holding your breath.

-- Really? Davidson dropped 107 points?

-- Pitt took care of business, so did UConn, Texas, Purdue, Oklahoma and Arizona State. Buzz Williams is 1-0 at Marquette. Florida, Wake and 'Nova got off on the right track, too.

-- Just wondering: Is VMI a bubble team now? Kentucky certainly is.