Hot Stove Quick Hits

Despite the lack of any major star power, the free agent market still features nice players that can complement a lot of rosters around the league. Paul Konerko is a bona fide power threat that plays a strong firstbase. Johnny Damon is the best leadoff hitter in the Major Leagues, in my opinion, and certainly fields his position well. There are several quality relief pitchers that filed for free agency, and that means teams like Boston, Toronto, or even Pittsburgh, can improve their pitching over the holidays. I expect bloated contracts and lots of misplaced money this offseason. But I also expect several teams to significantly improve their lineups, rotations, or bullpens with some quality moves. Let's take a look at some key free agents and where they could really make an impact.

Paul Konerko: Konerko put up fantastic power numbers the past two seasons and in the 2005 playoffs, but what's overlooked is his production before he exploded into a superstar power threat. Paul hit 122 homers and drove in 446 runs between his 23rd and 27th birthdays. He holds a career average of .279 and a strong OBP of .349. Konerko started striking out more in the past two seasons, but his home run and RBI totals increased, putting him in the "power hitter" category.

The "power hitter" stereotype is that he swings harder more often, costing him some at bats for the sake of hitting a home run or driving in some runners. Paul Konerko just needs more protection in the lineup and he will strikeout less. If you look at his numbers prior to his power explosion, he never hit the 100 strikeout mark in a season, and can someone tell me who was hitting in front or behind him in those seasons? Carlos Lee and Frank Thomas. The point is: Paul Konerko will thrive in an atmosphere that provides him with strong protection, either in front of him, behind him, or both.

If Konerko lands in Boston, he will have David Ortiz, Manny Ramirez (yes, he's staying), and Jason Varitek protecting him in the lineup. In Toronto, Paul would be the centerpiece that glues Shea Hillenbrand and Vernon Wells together. The Blue Jays have an expanded payroll this offseason, and desperately need a bat to bring in lots of RBIs. The White Sox need Konerko the most, but might not have the wallet to stick with a huge payroll in Boston or an expanding one in Toronto. Heck, Konerko could go to the Mets for all we know, but he is going to see lots of money.
Final Accepted Contract: 5 years, $70-million ($14-million/year)

Johnny Damon: A big issue with Johnny Damon is that god-awful beard. In all seriousness, though, his health remains a factor in his future paychecks. He looked better in the playoffs, but still swung with one hand. Johnny is a career .290 hitter and a .989 fielding percentage in ten years of ball make him attractive to a lot of teams. It helps that he spurred the Red Sox to three straight playoff berths and a World Series ring. He is a celebrity-type player and will sell tickets. If teams are convinced that his shoulder is better, then they will spend plenty of money to bring him in.

The bottom line is, despite all the supposed, media-hyped turmoil in the Red Sox front office, they are under control and they will not let Damon get away. Prospects David Murphy and Brandon Moss are still another year or two away from being Major League-ready, so the Sox will not miss out on a chance to re-sign Johnny Damon. Trot Nixon will probably not be back in a starting capacity in 2007, but next year, Nixon, Damon, and Ramirez will patrol the Fenway grass. Look for a deal structure similar to Jason Varitek's in early 2005.
Final Accepted Contract: 4 years, $48- to $56-million (anywhere in the $12- to $14-million/year range)

Big Name Closers/Setup relievers: The biggest names available include Bill Wagner, BJ Ryan, Trevor Hoffman, Tom Gordon, Bobby Wickman, Kyle Farnsworth, and Todd Jones. Now, in my opinion, the closer position is horribly overvalued. A pitcher that comes into a game with a lead and nobody on does not particularly have as tough a job as a middle reliever that comes in with the game tied, one out and two runners on. That's why I think signings like Mike Myers. Julian Tavarez, or Ricardo Rincon are more important to teams than the big closer deals. Who gets the big outs in tough situations in the middle innings? The Brendan Donnellys and Ray Kings of the league.

Nonetheless, the closer position is still important. Bullpens need that one guy that pitches an inning-plus and gets pressure outs. Nobody likes losing a game in the ninth inning, so naturally teams need a guy that gets those three outs, or even four or five if they have the endurance. Bill Wagner is best closer available, and with teams like the Mets, Red Sox, Phillies moving towards a bidding battle, he is going to cash in this winter. When Wagner collects a bloated 4-year-deal of $50-million proportions, guys like BJ Ryan and Trevor Hoffman will start pushing up their price. Expect teams like the Red Sox, Mets, or Orioles to overpay guys to fill in key spots in their 'pens.


I love the offseason. It keeps baseball interesting in the winter, as teams battle over the services of a player. I think this particular free agency class isn't anything special, but it still has some quality players. Again, look for bigger contracts than expected on players that might not necessarily deserve them. Watch the Red Sox and Mets this offseason. Both teams are willing to spend lots of money, with Omar Minaya trying to build up the Latino influence in Queens and the Red Sox front office trying to put together a team to improve upon its failure of a 2005 season.