Monday, November 07, 2005

NBA Preview: Part I (Eastern Conference)

Well, it's a week into the season and some fans are already nervous about their teams. Other fans, ahem, New York, have even given up on their team. Anyway, I know all of you desperately want to know what I'm thinking about the NBA this year. The 2005-2006 season will shape out to be one of the better seasons in recent years. There is the intrigue of a contender to repeat and potential 70-game winner in the Spurs, Phil Jackson and Kobe Bryant reuniting in Los Angeles, Phoenix running the same offense with different characters, and the hunt for the Eastern Conference title between several quality teams. First, I want to offer some thoughts on each team, then I will hit you with the hard predictions. At the midpoint of the baseball season, I picked out what I thought would be probable end-of-the-season records for every team in baseball. At the beginning of the NBA season, I will do the same, and inevitably fail. Nonetheless, here goes nothin':

EASTERN CONFERENCE

Atlantic Division

New Jersey Nets: The Nets feature a beastly trio of stars in Vince Carter, Jason Kidd, and Richard Jefferson. Can anyone tell me the rest of their roster? Maybe two players on it? Granted, Nenad Krstic has developed into a solid low post presence, the Nets really still lack much of an inside game. Against bruisers like the Pacers, Pistons, and Heat, the Nets will struggle immensely to rebound and challenge shots in the paint. That being said, the Nets have the most star power in their division and that should be enough to get them into the playoffs. If their front office can bring in an impact big man before the trade deadline, they could morph into contenders, but until anything like that happens, they are a first-round-and-out kind of team.
Final Record: 46-36

Boston Celtics: You have to love the young talent progressing through the Celtics system. By integrating their younger players more and more over the next few years, the Celtics will rise to the top of the Eastern Conference...in 2008. This year, however, Paul Pierce and Ricky Davis will carry a team that resembles the 2004-2005 Chicago Bulls, i.e. lots of young talent, playing hard every night, out-hustling opponents, etc. I think the Celtics have a legitimate shot at the playoffs if they get a strong performance from their slew of young players. As long as Paul Pierce stays healthy and gritty, remains confident and doesn't lose faith in his younger teammates, the C's can contend for the weak Atlantic Division.
Final Record: 39-43

Philadelphia 76ers: Philly will always be tough as long as Allen Iverson puts on their jersey. The development of Kyle Korver as an outside shooter and Andre Iguodala as an explosive wing provides the Sixers with a nice combination of outside players to complement Iverson. If Chris Webber can stay healthy and Samuel Dalembert decides he wants to play this year, the Sixers could be a tough team, especially at home. The key to this team is Iverson getting the most out of his teammates, something he has always managed to do. If the supporting cast of AI stays healthy and out of trouble, the Sixers can contend with the Celtics and Nets for the the division title.
Final Record: 42-40

New York Knicks: How many guards can be on the floor at once, Isiah? Well, there's conventionally only two positions for guards, three if you are willing to sacrifice size and any inside establishment, four if you don't feel like making the playoffs, and five if you are Isiah Thomas. The 2005 draft still lingers in the heads of everyone but Isiah Thomas. My apologies to Matt Barnes, but he should be the 11th or 12th man on any NBA team, but in Manhattan, he starts at the 3. The aging Antonio Davis with the shaky Eddy Curry gives the Knicks an interesting frontcourt. I feared for Eddy Curry's health everytime he stepped on the court, and that was before all the heart issues, because he's just bad. Stephon Marbury will never pass, Jamal Crawford will hate this season, and Nate Robinson is a 5'9" shooting guard in the NBA. The Knicks have lots of talent, nowhere to put it, and a coach that will probably hate himself for leaving Detroit by the end of the season.
Final Record: 34-48

Toronto: The Raptors have no intentions of making the playoffs this year. My statement is not backed up by quotes or insinuations, but simply by their roster. Jalen Rose is hilarious but a headcase, and Mike James is a great backup point guard that is starting. Charlie Villanueva left a year too early and Loren Woods looks like a Pogo stick with shoes on. The Raptors feature Chris Bosh, an obviously talented big man with fantastic athletic ability, and no one else. I don't want to write anymore about them, they are a sorry franchise.
Final Record: 26-56

Central Division

Detroit Pistons: The Pistons have an easy task coming into the 2005-2006 season: Keep doin' what you do, playa! The Pistons return everyone that meant anything to their roster last year and seem poised to get back to the Finals. My beef with the Pistons is their lack of depth. In the past, the Pistons have always had great role players to fill in for their starters, but this year (and in the '05 Finals) we saw the lack of bench players leaving the starters tired and beaten up by the fourth quarter. If this group lasts all season without injuries then all the more power to them, but they need to acquire some bench depth to get hold on to their Eastern Conference title.
Final Record: 56-26

Indiana Pacers: Any team that features Ron Artest is scary enough, but add Jermaine O'Neal, Stephen Jackson, and some quality role players, and the Pacers become a dominant force in the NBA. Danny Granger is a wild card for this team because if he can step in and give Rick Carlisle some good minutes, the Pacers will have more flexibility on the wings and in transition. I like this team as a regular season club, but to reference Bill Simmons, I just can't see who will be taking their last shot. Down by two with ten seconds, who is taking that big jumper? Ron Artest? Jermaine O'Neal? I have trouble picking the Pacers to win anything more than the division and getting to the Eastern Conference finals.

Final Record: 59-23

Milwaukee Bucks: I have said that the Bucks will be tough to play with a healthy, confident TJ Ford and strong wing players, and I stick by that assertion. Michael Redd might be the best pure shooter in the NBA today, mix him with an underrated Bobby Simmons and the Bucks have a strong backcourt and the potential to be a very exciting team. They added a good post presence by acquiring Jamaal Magloire, but he isn't healthy very often, neither is Joe Smith, and by the end of the season, look for Andrew Bogut and Dan Gadzuric to be the main players in the Bucks frontcourt. Andrew Bogut looked very good in the first week and if he keeps it up, the Bucks will be a darkhorse team in the Eastern Conference playoffs.

Final Record: 44-38

Chicago: The Bulls retained the core of their strong, young team from last year. Kirk Hinrich and Tyson Chandler head up an offense that has numerous options with Luol Deng and Ben Gordon coming off the bench. Defensive stopper Chris Duhon is a nice role player for 'da Bulls' and Darius Songaila works hard in the post. With big game experience under their belts, the Bulls will be looking to improve upon last season, but in this division, it seems like they will need to keep improving at rapid rates to keep up. I don't think they'll be much better than last year, and they will have to work hard to make the playoffs.

Final Season Record: 41-41

Cleveland Cavaliers: I liked the addition of Larry Hughes and Damon Jones to the backcourt for the Cavs. LeBron needs a good co-pilot and some good role players to help him get a ring, and Larry Hughes might just be that guy. Zydrunas Ilgauskas is a solid post player in an Eastern Conference stacked with big fellas, and he has to be healthy for the Cavs to be contenders. Any team with LeBron will be tough to beat, and if Larry Hughes plays well alongside King James and Big Z stays healthy, the Cavs will be included in playoff discussions. The Cavs added depth with Jones and Donyell Marshall which will help them when they inevitably become injury-plagued.

Final Record: 46-36

Southeast Division

Miami: The most talented team on paper, the Miami Heat have to deal with some offensive issues, particularly Antoine Walker, Gary Payton, and Shaq all demanding the ball at all times. Dwayne Wade is the best guard in the NBA, yeah I said it, and he will continue to prove his worth in Miami. This team seems primed for a title run, but the last time a team had this much talent, they lost in the Finals to the Pistons in 2004 (remember the Lakers?). If the Heat can figure out a way to get D-Wade, Shaq, Antoine, GP, James Posey, and Jason Williams enough touches, and keep them all happy, they will be the best option to beat the Spurs.

Final Record: 64-18

Washington Wizards: Gilbert Arenas keeps getting better, and Antawn Jamison is a nice player for any team to have. I think this team will resemble the 2001-2002 Celtics, with an offense revolving around two guys, and role players that play their positions well when called on. The Wizards are tougher than a lot of people give them credit for, and Gilbert Arenas may have an even bigger year than last season. I think this team will give the big guys like Detroit, Miami, and Indiana fits, and maybe challenge them in the playoffs.

Final Record: 48-34

Charlotte Bobcats: Emeka Okafor is a very good player and with some strong young cats coming into the Bobcats franchise, this club might run at titles in three to five years, if they make quality additions and keep drafting well. Brevin Knight is a good floor leader and sees the court extremely well, and with Gerald Wallace and Kareem Rush as wing options, the 'Cats have a decent backcourt. Mix that with Okafor and a good Primoz Brezec, and the Bobcats put together a decent lineup. They will not make the playoffs, and will gain valuable experience as the season progresses. Charlotte will be competitive against good teams and win games against the Hawks and Raptors of the league, so expect them to turn out some positive results this year.

Final Record: 31-51

Orlando Magic: Steve Francis is one of my favorite players in the NBA, but he has issues. He wants to be a primary scoring option, but needs to handle the point guard duties for the Magic. He wants to be a contender but is stuck on a team that can't contend with the current lineup. Dwight Howard is going to be amazing in years to come, and this year will be his big breakout season. The Magic just don't have the firepower to compete with anyone and they will lose a lot of frustrating games.

Final Record: 32-50

Atlanta Hawks: The sorriest franchise in sports might be better this year than they've been in a while. The Hawks have a solid core of young'n's with Joe Johnson, Al Harrington, Josh Childress, and Josh Smith, mixed in with solid draft picks Marvin Williams and Salim Stoudamire. I really like this young team, especially because they start a guy at center named "Zaza." They will be another thorn in the side of good teams this year with some pizzazz and youth, but they need some time to gel together. Give them a season, and then we might talk Hawks and playoffs.

Final Record: 35-47

The Playoff picture based on the predicted records would look like this:

1.Miami vs 8. Philadelphia

4. Detroit vs. 5. Washington

3. New Jersey vs. 6. Cleveland

2. Indiana vs. 7. Milwaukee

These matchups seem as though they would be interesting, particularly the 4-5 and 3-6 series. Cleveland would be the only 'upset' in the first round, winning in seven. I'll take Miami in five, Detroit in six, and Indiana in five to go along with Cleveland.

1. Miami vs. 4. Detroit

2. Indiana vs. 6. Cleveland

LeBron James vs. Ron Artest? How's that for a matchup? I have to go with the talent of Miami and Indiana in these matchups. Now, now, Detroit has a lot of talent too, but in that series, the depth of the Heat far outweighs any talent advantage the Pistons might barely have. I will take the Heat in seven and the Pacers in six.

Eastern Conference Finals

Pacers and Heat. This is the kind of matchup that NBA fans want to see. Shaq, D-Wade, Antoine, and their cast of quality teammates against a two-man wagon led by two superstars. I think the Heat big men will be able to minimize Jermaine O'Neal, and overwhelm his help on the defensive end. The Heat can front the post and easily have help from the weak side that can handle O'Neal. The Pacers don't have anyone big enough to guard Shaq, and Antoine Walker always leads Jermaine O'Neal away from the basket when the two face off. This would be a great matchup, but the Heat would win it in six.

2 comments:

Anonymous said...

Hey Jeff, thanks for sticking by me, even through the tough times. Hugs and kisses.

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