Friday, March 10, 2006

Big East Babble: Day Three

First off, I'd like to say that everyone should include Allan Ray in their thoughts and prayers tonight as he battles with what looked to be a very severe eye injury. It's moments like that that force us to step back from sports and think in broader terms.

Nonetheless, it was another day of brilliant competition and passion at Madison Square Garden. Syracuse has basically willed their way into the championship, running on heart and soul. The last three days' performances by Gerry McNamara will be remembered for years to come. I'd say, in my lifetime, his week has been one of the best weeks I can recall during Championship Week.

The third win in three days for Pitt came in the form of a bittersweet shock. However, the win is still over a very good Villanova team. With or without Allan Ray, 'Nova poses a major threat to win the national title. The potentially season-ending injury could provide some fuel to 'Nova's fire. Nonetheless, Pitt did what a team needs to do to beat 'Nova: rebound, limit second chances and take full advantage of your offensive possessions.

In my mind, you can beat 'Nova this way--

1) If you pressure their guards and force them to play 100% full speed every possession, you can wear them down. With plenty of guards to rotate in and out, Pitt had the personnel to wear out Lowry, Nardi, Foye and Ray, when he played. The physicality of Pitt's guards made it a lot more difficult for 'Nova to get into the lane. In the tournament, teams will have to do the same thing to slow down 'Nova. You cannot stop 'Nova's guards, you can only slow them down and limit their offensive explosiveness.

2) Rebound, rebound, rebound. If you limit 'Nova to one and done possessions, you can control the tempo of the game. Clearing out the smaller, quicker guards helps the opponent gain a nice rebounding margin. Pitt has quick guards that rebound just as well as 'Nova's guards. This made it difficult for Villanova to play their game. Inside, 'Nova does not have the horses to battle with deep benches filled with fresh post players. If a team has more than one or two post threats, the strain on Will Sheridan and Jason Fraser becomes unbearable.

3) Slow down! No one can run with Villanova. Yeah, I said it, no one. So instead of trying to fight fire with fire like the Bush administration, why not take the legs out from under 'Nova--literally? If you slow your possessions down and maximize each one, you'll limit their offense. If you can take 30 seconds off the clock and get a lay up, why push things? Their inside presence on defense is mediocre at best. Sheridan and Fraser can't guard any of the top post corps in the country. They can limit post production but if you hammer at Sheridan and Fraser, they will foul out, leaving 'Nova with... Shane Clark, Dante Cunningham and Chris Charles.

It's not as easy as I make it out to be. 'Nova has figured out several ways to really hide their faults. If Allan Ray can come back healthy, this team is still my favorite to win the NCAA title. They are so quick and so smart with the basketball. But if Ray is out, they are down to really a six- or seven-man rotation, and that's trouble.

Tomorrow night's game prediction--

Syracuse vs. Pitt. I think Pitt will win this game. Syracuse is running on just pure adrenaline and passion. Unfortunately for 'Cuse, they only play about seven guys. Pitt has three more players that they use regularly. This makes them the more rested team of the two. Not to mention the fact that Syracuse has won three games in three days by a combined total of 4 points, meaning they are mentally and emotionally drained.

Pitt wins by three.

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