NFL Week Four Picks

Welcome to the third week of predictions for which I pick both a winner and the margin of victory. I count them separately, so if I picked Cincinnati over Pittsburgh by 10, and Cincinnati won by eight, I'm 1-0 picking the winner, 0-1 picking the score. Simple enough, right?

Before we get into the picks, I was watching Laguna Beach yesterday after reading Bill Simmons little rant about the sheer lack of personality of the male characters in the show. I mean, it's a new season, so it's funny to see the new characters, especially guys like Cameron -- a Jason impersonator -- try to act (yeah, I said act. So what, big deal, wanna fight about it?).

But I just wanted to mention the gradual increase in ridiculously hot female cast members since season one. The first season we had LC and Kristin. They battled for hot-girl supremacy. Then in season two, Kristin held the top spot easily, but Jessica, Alex H., Alex M. and even Taylor made some noise. And now in the third season, there's Tessa, Kyndra, Lexie and Breanna, with scores of other girls making cameos.

Sure, most of those girls pale in comparison to one or two of the ridiculously hot girls in the show. But think about it, if these girls went to your high school, they would easily be the hottest girl. I don't know about you, but that bothers me. I can't quite figure out why, but it does. Kind of like Regis Philbin -- no one really likes him, but we can't figure out why. Is it the annoying voice? The overexuberant chatter? Who knows. But he just isn't an enjoyable figure.

But more to the point, do they even go to school? Someone should look into this. Has anyone ever seen them doing homework or essays? Or even complaining about school work or getting into college? I want to know. And I want to know now. Someone call the creepy dude who always looks mad on Law and Order: Criminal Intent (I think his name is Vincent D'Onorfio -- don't count on it though).

Also, I highly recommend you go on Wikipedia and read the "Controversy" section at the end of the article. It has inside information on the reality of the show. Apparently Jason smashed Alex's head into a locker at school and that's why they broke up. How hilarious is that? I knew the kid was terrible, but not that bad. So check it out. Right after you research Mario Lopez and Jaleel White.

Anyway, I have NFL picks to make. This week just isn't quite there in terms of contests like last week, but we'll go with it.

Arizona at ATLANTA --The Falcons ran into the gauntlet Monday and had no chance of escaping. No way were the Saints going to lose their first game back at the Superdome. But the Falcons are still good, and with the controversy stewing already in Arizona, the cards are stacked against Kurt Warner and company (pun intended). Falcons by seven.

DALLAS at Tennessee -- In spite of all the T.O. business going on this week, something about which I don't think I should opine, the Cowboys will be ready to play after the bye week. Give Bill Parcells two weeks against a lowly team like the Titans, who are suffering the same problems as the Cardinals with a far less talented team, and the Cowboys are easy favorites. Dallas by 10.

INDIANAPOLIS at New York Jets -- This could be an interesting contest if the Jets play well. They've looked pretty decent so far. But the Colts are too good for me to pick against them. It'll either be a close one or a brutal beatdown, but I say Colts pull away in the end by eight.

MIAMI at Houston -- You won't see me picking this many road teams unless the host clubs are terrible. And this week, they are. Miami isn't better than Houston by more than a running back, but the fact that every analyst second-guesses any move made in Houston makes me question the confidence in the locker room. Dolphins by three.

MINNESOTA at Buffalo -- The Vikes should've won last week. The Bills should've won last week. The difference? The Vikings played the Bears; the Bills played the Jets. The Bears are a Super Bowl contender; the Jets are a snow ball's prayer of a wild card contender. Minnesota recharged its batteries when Brad Johnson took over last season and boating is now illegal in Minneapolis. Vikings by three.

New Orleans at CAROLINA -- The dream start to the Saints' season will end this weekend. Not that I'm ready to hop back on the Panthers bandwagon after they squeaked out a win over Tampa Bay, but just because the Saints will be in serious letdown mode after their inspirational performance Monday night. Carolina by seven.

SAN DIEGO at Baltimore -- This will be the first test of the season for both of these clubs. San Diego beat up on Oakland and Tennessee; Baltimore crushed Tampa Bay, Oakland and Cleveland. Call me crazy, but I like the Chargers on the road. It should be close, with a good offense meeting a good defense, so I'll say San Diego by two. Why? Because offense wins games (I know, I know, "But defense wins championships.").

San Francisco at KANSAS CITY -- The Chiefs have had two long weeks to lick their wounds after an 0-2 start under new coach Herm Edwards. If Brian Westbrook torched San Fran on the ground, then Larry Johnson will literally restart the gold rush against the 49ers. Even without Trent Green, the Chiefs should be the favorites. KC by six.

Detroit at ST. LOUIS -- The Rams are a tough team. Detroit can't buy a win. Rule #368 in picking winners of NFL games: Never pick a team that loses -- at home -- to the Packers. Rams by seven.

CLEVELAND at Oakland -- The Raiders are terrible. And so are the Browns. Cleveland by 10.

JACKSONVILLE at Washington -- The Jags will be hungry after their tough loss last weekend. There is no chance that Mark Brunell will repeat his performance from last week. Jacksonville by seven.

New England at CINCINNATI -- Both of these teams have yet to look good. But Cincy is more likely to get things going. Tom Brady is quietly furious and the Pats' offense couldn't look worse. Keep an eye out for Carson Palmer -- can he hold on to the football and keep his composure in the pocket? He played rather poorly against Pittsburgh last week and still won, but the Pats are a tougher opponent that will make Cincy pay for its mistakes. And yet, I still like the Bengals by six.

Seattle at CHICAGO -- What a fantastic match up. But on Sunday night, the Seahawks will be running that spread, four-receiver offense without much of a running game. Give the Bears only one thing to defend against and your offense is more doomed than trout swimming in a barrel in a grizzly's lair (what, bad joke?). Bears by four.

Green Bay at PHILADELPHIA -- In the worst Monday Night Football contest so far, the Eagles will feast on the Pack. D-Mac looks great so far and Donte' "Why the Apostrophe?" Stallworth is back this week. The Packers can't beat anyone on the road except for the Lions. Eagles by 13.

OK, so at this point, I'm 22-8 picking the winners of games and 14-16 picking the right margin of victory.

As always, tune in on Monday morning at 9 for the Water Cooler Conversation with Matt Bolks, Ken Lynch and me. Catch it streaming at www.wpts.org/live. And also keep an eye out for The Pitt News sports section, it always has good stuff from a great staff. Take 'er easy.