NFL Week Five Picks

Welcome back to another fine edition of Weekly Picks with yours truly. After three weeks of picking and four weeks of NFL football, I hold a 31-13 overall record when picking the winners. The downside? I'm only 20-24 picking the margin of victory.

Moving on to the picks of the week…

Buffalo at CHICAGO – I might sound crazy, but the Bills aren't completely out of this game. I wouldn't be surprised if they gave the Bears a run for their money. Think about it – the Bills are coming off a great home win and the Bears are coming off a colossal, emotional victory Monday night. Could there be a bigger chance for a letdown? Regardless, never pick against the Bears. Chitown by six.

Cleveland at CAROLINA – I thought the Browns looked almost average...until they squeaked out a victory against Oakland. Granted, it was in Oakland, in that difficult road atmosphere, but really, it's the Raiders. Carolina is coming back into form with a two-headed monster in the backfield and a recovering Steve Smith. The Panthers should win easily. I'll say by 10.

Detroit at MINNESOTA – Love the Vikes at home. Hate the Lions on the road. Heck, hate the Lions anywhere. I can't pick them in any game. I'm just waiting for people to hunt down Matt Millen (I'm surprised they haven't already) and put his head on a stick. Vikings by seven.

Miami at NEW ENGLAND – I have Chris Chambers on my fantasy team. Yeah, a Pro Bowl receiver with boat loads of talent, not to mention 4,000-plus yards receiving and 41 touchdowns in his career with Miami. Apparently picking him in fantasy is a "bandwagon" pick because some experts at assorted sports media outlets said Miami would be good this year. I picked him because he is a solid playmaker and has had several good years. His main problem? His quarterback is terrible – yeah, Good Doctor picked Culpepper up, in case you were wondering. Nonetheless, the Pats look like they are finally ready to roll, and Miami couldn't be a better team for the Pats to play heading into their bye week. Pats by seven.

ST. LOUIS at Green Bay – Did you see that Monday Night Football game? I assume you did. That's why I'm picking the Rams to win at Lambeau. St. Louis by three.

Tampa Bay at NEW ORLEANS – The Saints should win this game in Bruce Gradkowski's first start in the spotlight for the Bucs. I'm intrigued to see how he does. Hopefully Reggie Bush and Cadillac Williams get it together this week (again, the whole fantasy thing) but I wouldn’t hold my breath. N'ahlins by 10.

Tennessee at INDIANAPOLIS – I think any team in the AFC with a shot at the playoffs would kill for a chance to play the Titans and Texans twice each. Indy is going to kill, and I mean absolutely murder, the Titans. I'll take the Colts by 14.

Washington at NEW YORK GIANTS – Look for the Giants to get things back in order – at least for now – when they play this big rivalry game. The Redskins offense looked downright explosive last week against a great defense (Jacksonville), so keep an eye on Mark Brunell and Clinton Portis, they will be the keys for Washington. But I like home teams in the NFC East. Giants by three.

Kansas City at ARIZONA – I'm gonna go out on a limb and say the Chiefs big win over the 49ers last week isn't exactly the kind of team the Chiefs really are. I like the Cards at home, even if they don't have an offensive line or much of a defense. I really have no reason to pick Arizona, so let's just get that out on the table. Cards by three.

New York Jets at JACKSONVILLE – Did you hear that? That was the sound of Eric Fatgini's triple cheeseburger sub from Enzo's Pizzeria on Long Island hitting its wrapping. The real question is – was it while Fatgini was watching Jacksonville's defense on tape or his Jets’ defense on tape? The Jags defense is too physical for the Jets' O. And the Jags offensive line is too physical for the Jets' D-line, so the Jets will have trouble getting any pressure on Kenan Thompson – you know, the kid from Kenan and Kel. Jags by seven.

Oakland at SAN FRANCISCO – And no, there isn't a worse game all season than this one. Ugh, 49ers by seven.

Dallas at PHILADELPHIA – Sticking with my "NFC East teams don't lose division games at home" theory, even though home teams in the NFC East are 1-1 this year against division foes. I'll take Philly. This is a huge emotional game for the Iggles. Philly by seven.

Pittsburgh at SAN DIEGO – Give me one good reason why the Steelers can even come close in this game? The Chargers will be at home, looking for blood after blowing a win against Baltimore and the Steelers couldn't be more vulnerable. This might be the biggest game of the season for Pittsburgh. I'm intrigued to see how they respond. They came through whenever they needed to last year, can they do it this year? I say no. Chargers by seven.

Baltimore at DENVER – I expect the NFL's undefeated teams to dwindle down to Chicago and Indy after this Monday Night Football contest. The Broncos are so tough at home. Plus they have a stingy defense that should stifle the poor Ravens offense. On the other side, the Ravens' D is probably the best in the league. But the Broncos' O is much more functional than the Ravens' O. Broncos by three in a very, very low-scoring affair.

There you have it. Again, check out www.pittnews.com for great, up-to-date sports coverage in and around the University of Pittsburgh. Also, tune in to the Water Cooler Conversation every Monday morning at www.wpts.org/live or live on your radio dial at 92.1 FM. And if you have time, go to www.thepalestra.com and check some of my web-television reporting from Pitt. Enjoy the weekend, folks.