Saturday, May 19, 2007

Western Conference Preview

I know it's not the 1-2 matchup everyone wanted. The Mavs are gone. The Suns were defeated in six games by David Stern and the NBA (it was a great series!). The Warriors sputtered out faster than Rick Santorum's political career.

But have faith.

For the Jazz are not all that bad. Maybe Utah can send San Antonio back to Texas, where boring is acceptable.

(Oh, slam.)

Really, this series might actually be one that we can thoroughly enjoy. Heck, it could go seven games.

Boozehounding
Carlos Boozer, much like LeBron James in the Eastern Conference Finals, could be the deciding factor in how this series plays out. If Boozer continues his playoff dominance -- 24.4 points, 12.2 rebounds per game -- he could will the Jazz back to the Finals.

But the Spurs aren't a small, running offense without a post presence like the Warriors. The Spurs will work their mechanical offense, feeding Tim Duncan the ball every possession while Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili slash to the basket and three-point shooters spot up.

The question is, can Boozer still score and operate as efficiently as he has over the last two series with Duncan covering him?

In three games against the Spurs this year (Boozer sat out the Spurs-Jazz game on Jan. 31), Boozer averaged 16.7 points and 11 rebounds a game. He attempted 15 free throws in three games.

That's not enough. He has to do more. And if he doesn't, the Jazz are in trouble.

Playing Hot Potato
The Jazz have seven or eight guys who want to score. They have five guys who want the ball in crunch time. And they have a point guard who, paired with Boozer, could tear down the Spurs in this series. But can the Jazz get everybody touches, keep people hot and make some big shots?

The Victory Manu(al)
Manu Ginobili, as much as I hate saying this, had a great series against the Suns. And if he is a consistent scorer off the bench in this series, that might be too much for the Jazz. If he gets into the paint, gets the calls and finds his niche, Ginobili can cause matchup problems and rip holes in defenses.

The Shakedown
I wish I could say that the Jazz will win this series confidently. But I honestly can't even muster up the courage to get it on my tongue, let alone spit it out.

The Spurs are too good. Duncan and company will not allow Boozer to dominate the lane like he did against the Warriors and that should all but stop the music in this series.

The Jazz win if Boozer can find a way to beat Duncan head to head and Deron Williams uses his size advantage on Tony Parker. If the role players are hitting their shots, the Jazz can be a lethal team at critical spots in games.

But I know the Spurs are the Robots That Can. And they will.

Spurs in seven.

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